Even if the Twins don't deal him, the starter doesn't appear to be in team's long-term plans. With six pitchers vying for five spots in the Twins starting rotation, one possible solution is trading Francisco Liriano. Speaking to team officials recently, I've been surprised how open they are to this possibility, but the logic makes sense. Liriano, 27, can become a free agent after the 2012 season. Coming off a resurgent year, he might never have a higher trade value. One thing is clear: The Twins don't plan to sign him long term. Last weekend, they avoided arbitration with a one-year, $4.3 million deal. From what I've heard, their long-term talks went nowhere, with Liriano's camp hinting it wanted a three-year, $39 million contract. Even if that was just a starting point for negotiations -- and to be clear, I'm not sure -- the Twins were wise to pass. For one thing, Liriano is still an injury risk. He had arm injuries coming through the minors, he had Tommy John elbow surgery in 2006 and he still has a violent delivery. For all the talk about how Liriano is learning to trust his fastball and changeup, the lefthander relied heavily on his slider again last season. According to FanGraphs.com, 38 percent of the pitches he threw as a rookie in 2006 were sliders. That number dipped to 27 percent during his abysmal 2009 season and returned to 34 percent last year. Liriano might look like a blue-chip stock again, but rather than investing big, the Twins seem content to maximize his current value. They can tap him for about 65 starts over the next two seasons and collect two draft picks if he leaves as a free agent. Or they can trade him. Let's say the Yankees grow increasingly desperate after failing to sign Cliff Lee and seeing Andy Pettitte retire. New York's top rotation candidates are CC Sabathia, Phil Hughes, A.J. Burnett, Ivan Nova, Sergio Mitre, Bartolo Colon and Freddy Garcia. That group could get eaten alive in the AL East. By mid-March, if the other five starters -- Carl Pavano, Brian Duensing, Scott Baker, Nick Blackburn and Kevin Slowey -- are healthy, and top prospect Kyle Gibson looks like the real deal, the Twins might be weighing offers for Liriano. Other teams couldn't help being intrigued after Liriano went 14-10 with a 3.62 ERA last year with 201 strikeouts in 191 2/3 innings. Liriano ranked second in the majors behind Roy Halladay in xFIP (expected fielding independent pitching), a stat that measures just what the pitcher controls -- such as walks, strikeouts and home runs -- and to some analysts is a better predictor of a pitcher's future success than ERA. Liriano might seem like the closest thing the Twins have to a true No. 1 pitcher, but is he really that close? The lefthander was bewildered in 2009, when he went 5-13 with a 5.80 ERA. Last year, he had everything working again and still came up short in big situations. After opening the season as the No. 5 starter, Liriano had several dominant games, including June 11, when he struck out 11 Atlanta batters over eight innings in a 2-1 victory. But in his final 20 starts, including the postseason, he didn't finish the eighth inning once. In his much-hyped showdown with Colorado's Ubaldo Jimenez, the Rockies batted around in the first inning. The Twins won all five of Liriano's starts against the White Sox, but his performances were more white-knuckle than dominant. Then, in Game 1 of the Division Series, Liriano had a 3-0 lead in the sixth inning when the Yankees came back to tie it. Afterward, Liriano was his usual polite self, but it was a huge letdown for the team. Publicly, the Twins keep saying Liriano is a big part of their 2011 plans. They'd love to see him prove the skeptics wrong and blossom into a 20-game winner, even if this leaves fans screaming about their decision not to sign him long term. Ultimately, they'll have to weigh his potential performance against what he could bring in a trade. Tampa Bay received a big haul last month when it shipped former Twins righthander Matt Garza to the Cubs. Some said the Rays received more than Kansas City did in sending Zack Greinke to Milwaukee. Like Liriano, Greinke and Garza are both two years from free agency. The 2008 Johan Santana trade showed how limiting returns can be when top pitchers are traded one year from free agency. And Santana was a two-time Cy Young Award winner with impeccable mechanics and no history of arm injuries. 似乎是真的想把他送走,并没有把他当作未来计画的蓝图.... 文章内分析理由可能为伤病问题, http://tinyurl.com/4vr9f4e --

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