作者Sechslee (そんな微软で大丈夫か？)
看板MLB
标题[情报] Top 50 Pitching Prospects from 2006: In Review
时间Fri Jan 28 15:22:17 2011
http://ppt.cc/g(N!
Top 50 Pitching Prospects from 2006: In Review
1)
Justin Verlander, RHP, Detroit Tigers:
83-52, 3.81 ERA, 118 ERA+, 18.7 career WAR. Excellent.
2)
Francisco Liriano, LHP, Minnesota Twins:
38-32, 3.97 ERA, 109 ERA+, 8.4 career WAR. Not the pitcher he was before
Tommy John, but still above average.
3)
Matt Cain, RHP, San Francisco Giants:
57-62, 3.45 ERA, 126 ERA+, 20.9 career WAR. Excellent.
4)
Chad Billingsley, RHP, Los Angeles Dodgers:
59-41, 3.55 ERA, 116 ERA+, 12.8 career WAR. Very very good.
5)
Craig Hansen, RHP, Boston Red Sox:
2005 draft pick ranked very high coming into '06 as future closer.
6.34 ERA, 73 ERA+ in just 94 innings, -2.2 career WAR. Huge bust. Was
rushed, had serious command problems.
6)
Jason Hirsh, RHP, Houston Astros:
8-11, 5.32 ERA, 89 ERA+ in 166 innings, career WAR -0.8. Still hanging
around Triple-A.
7)
Cesar Carrillo, RHP, San Diego Padres:
13.06 ERA in 10.1 major league innings. Injuries left him a Triple-A
pitcher.
8)
Jon Lester, LHP, Boston Red Sox:
61-25, 3.55 ERA, 130 ERA+, 18.1 career WAR. Excellent.
9)
Jon Papelbon, RHP, Boston Red Sox:
2.22 ERA, 209 ERA+, 188 saves, 15.1 career WAR. Excellent.
10)
Fernando Cabrera, RHP, Cleveland Indians:
5.24 ERA, 86 ERA+ in 175 innings, career WAR -0.3. It was really stupid
to rank him this high and I don't remember what my thinking was.
11)
Scott Baker, RHP, Minnesota Twins:
55-42, 4.32 ERA, 100 ERA+, career WAR 11.4. A solid starting pitcher.
12)
Joel Zumaya, RHP, Detroit Tigers:
3.05 ERA, 148 ERA+ in 210 innings, career WAR 4.4. A very effective
pitcher when he isn't injured.
13)
Jon Broxton, RHP, Los Angeles Dodgers:
3.11 ERA, ERA+ 136, 77 saves, 6.1 career WAR. Can't complain.
14)
Luke Hochevar, RHP, Unsigned:
19-32, 5.60 ERA, 78 ERA+, career WAR -0.5. Awful.
15)
Mike Pelfrey, RHP, New York Mets:
43-41, 4.31 ERA, 95 ERA+, career WAR 4.4. Strong '08 and '10 seasons.
I keep expecting him to take a big leap forward at some point.
16)
Scott Elbert, LHP, Los Angeles Dodgers:
6.84 ERA in 26 major league innings. Has been effective in the minors
most of the time, with bouts of command problems and injuries. Still a
prospect.
17)
Jeremy Sowers, LHP, Cleveland Indians:
5.18 ERA, 84 ERA+ in 400 innings, career WAR 1.7. Pitched well in the
majors in 2006 but unable to replicate success.
18)
Scott Olsen, LHP, Florida Marlins:
37-49, 4.85 ERA, 88 ERA+ in 723 innings, career WAR -0.2. Pitched well
in '06 and '08, but badly otherwise.
19)
Troy Patton, LHP, Houston Astros:
13 major league innings. An average Triple-A pitcher at this point,
lost much of his velocity due to injuries.
20)
Anthony Reyes, RHP, St. Louis Cardinals:
13-26, 5.12, ERA+ 86, career WAR 0.4. Looked good at times but never
put it together.
21)
Jered Weaver, RHP, Los Angeles Angels:
64-39, 3.55 ERA, ERA+ 123, career WAR 20.0. Excellent.
22)
Yusmeiro Petit, RHP, Florida Marlins:
5.57 ERA, 82 ERA+ in 229 innings, career WAR -0.2. Turned out to be a
Quadruple-A type.
23)
Anibal Sanchez, RHP, Florida Marlins:
31-29, 3.74 ERA, 114 ERA+, 7.6 career WAR. A solid pitcher when healthy.
24)
Jose Capellan, RHP, Milwaukee Brewers:
4.89 ERA, 93 ERA+ in 123 innings, -0.2 career WAR. Blah.
25)
Merkin Valdez, RHP, San Francisco Giants:
5.53 ERA, 80 ERA+ in 68 innings, -0.7 WAR. Injury casualty.
26)
Phil Hughes, RHP, New York Yankees:
31-18, 4.20 ERA, 105 ERA+, 4.9 career WAR. Just getting started.
27)
Eric Hurley, RHP, Texas Rangers:
Made five starts in 2008. Injury casualty.
28)
Homer Bailey, RHP, Cincinnati Reds:
16-16, 5.09 ERA, 83 ERA+, -0.5 career WAR. Has the stuff, but
consistently inconsistent.
29)
Edinson Volquez, RHP, Texas Rangers:
28-22, 4.36 ERA, 101 ERA+, 4.2 career WAR. Excellent in 2008 but
hampered by injuries since.
30)
Jimmy Barthmaier, RHP, Houston Astros:
Got killed in three starts for the Pirates in 2008. Injury issues, and
unable to replicate A-ball success at higher levels.
31)
Matt Garza, RHP, Minnesota Twins:
42-44, 3.97 ERA, 107 ERA+, 9.8 career WAR. Very good pitcher.
32)
Anthony Swarzak, RHP, Minnesota Twins:
6.25 ERA, 70 ERA+ in 12 starts in 2009. Got hit hard in Triple-A last
year. Not a lot of hope in my view.
33)
Jairo Garcia, RHP, Oakland Athletics:
Now known as Santiago Casilla. 4.30 ERA, 99 ERA+ in 216 innings, six
saves, but was effective in 2010 with a 1.95 ERA for the Giants, 1.3
career WAR.
34)
Gio Gonzalez, LHP, Philadelphia Phillies:
22-20, 4.43 ERA, 96 ERA+. Took a huge step forward in '10, 15-9, 3.23,
128 ERA+, 4.3 WAR.
35)
Ray Liotta, LHP, Chicago White Sox:
Injury casualty.
36)
Mark Pawelek, LHP, Chicago Cubs:
Injury casualty, velocity vanished.
37)
Bobby Jenks, RHP, Chicago White Sox:
3.40 ERA, 136 ERA+, 173 saves, 9.6 career WAR. No complaints.
38)
John Danks, LHP, Texas Rangers:
46-44, 3.96 ERA, 115 ERA+, 17.2 career WAR. Excellent.
39)
Thomas Diamond, RHP, Texas Rangers:
6.83 ERA, 64 ERA+ in 29 innings for the Cubs last year. Looked like
an injury casualty but fought his way back.
40)
David Purcey, LHP, Toronto Blue Jays:
5.33 ERA, 81 ERA+. Much more effective in pen last year, probably his
best role for the future.
41)
Chris Ray, RHP, Baltimore Orioles:
4.02 ERA, 111 ERA+ in 248 innings, 51 saves, 49 of them in '06 and '07.
3.6 career WAR.
42)
Cole Hamels, LHP, Philadelphia Phillies:
60-45, 3.53 ERA, 123 ERA+, 17.0 career WAR. Excellent. Deserved to rank
higher.
43)
Ricky Romero, LHP, Toronto Blue Jays:
27-18, 3.99 ERA, 107 ERA+, 5.8 career WAR. Looked like a possible bust
until 2009 but has been very good since.
44)
Chuck James, LHP, Atlanta Braves:
24-19, 4.48 ERA, 98 ERA+. Effective in 2006 and 2007 but didn't last
long. 2.6 career WAR. Pitched well in Triple-A last year and could
reemerge.
45)
Travis Bowyer, RHP, Florida Marlins:
Strong relief season in Triple-A in 2005, got hurt and never pitched again.
46)
Dustin McGowan, RHP, Toronto Blue Jays:
20-22, 4.71 ERA, 94 ERA+ in 354 innings through 2008. 1.7 career WAR.
Injury casualty.
47)
Matt Torra, RHP, Arizona Diamondbacks:
2005 first rounder. Suffered labrum injury and was never the same, lost
7 MPH off fastball. Now a Triple-A inning-eater.
48)
Donald Veal, LHP, Chicago Cubs:
Stalled out in upper minors with mechanical problems, control issues.
49)
Wade Davis, RHP, Tampa Bay Rays:
4.01 ERA, 100 ERA+ in 204 innings, 2.1 career WAR. Just getting started.
50)
Dustin Nippert, RHP, Arizona Diamondbacks:
5.31 ERA, 86 ERA+ in 268 innings, 0.1 career WAR. Looked like a bust but
has pitched well for the Rangers the last two years.
With just a couple of exceptions I am very happy with this list. Most of
the busts were injury-related. I've noticed the last few years that the
pitching lists have turned out better than the hitting lists, although
generally pitchers are supposed to be less predictable. I'm not sure why
that is, although in general I have a better feel for analyzing pitchers
both sabermetrically and scoutingly than I do for hitters.
--
※ 发信站: 批踢踢实业坊(ptt.cc)
◆ From: 122.116.189.142
1F：推 DaisukeOchi:Cesar Carrillo烂掉了... 01/28 15:23
2F：→ accprote:06年这一批很多都不赖.. 01/28 15:26
3F：推 icotes:投手真难养.. 01/28 15:27
4F：推 TrueTears:TNSTAAPP 01/28 15:36
5F：推 smiledoremi:Jered Weaver 的ERA+好像错了喔! 01/28 15:40
※ 编辑: Sechslee 来自: 122.116.189.142 (01/28 15:43)
6F：推 Tulowitzki2:Luke Hochevar:Awful.... 01/28 16:58
7F：→ sarserror:看来投手的排名准多了XD 01/28 17:45
8F：推 Fenixbroken:新一代水货状元 不过同年的Miller也好不到哪去 01/28 17:57
9F：推 ajburnett:看到Hansen跟Bailey就笑了... 01/28 18:17
10F：推 RollingWave:33 比较好笑吧XDDDD... 完全变不同名子 01/28 18:25
11F：推 sarserror:咦？33是改名吗？ 01/28 18:27
12F：推 menan:身分作假吧 01/28 18:30
13F：推 maxspeed150:这种情况其实拉美球员不少见说 ex:David Arias 01/28 18:34
14F：→ maxspeed150:不过33那个真的是假身分 01/28 18:35
15F：推 antonio019:Homer Bailey:consistently inconsistent 笑翻XDDDDDD 01/28 20:01
16F：推 hit10116:McGowan居然是红色... 01/28 20:17
17F：→ mercuryblue:看到祖马雅又想起那抱着手冒冷汗的情景 01/28 21:18
18F：推 sarserror:绿色最好 黄色普通 红色最差 是这样吗？ 01/28 21:27
19F：→ honey4617912:18/50 绿色比例 01/28 22:08
20F：推 stk11:Chris Ray好可惜.. 01/28 22:26
21F：推 SlamKai:Justin Verlander!!!!!! 看那强健的手臂 燃烧~~~~~~~~~ 01/28 23:11
22F：推 iverson88:这个好 01/28 23:21
23F：推 albertjet:推Bailey的consistently inconsistent 01/29 00:02
24F：推 littlesheepy:10超好笑XD It was really stupid to rank him this 01/30 03:40
25F：→ littlesheepy:high and I don't remember what my thinking was. 01/30 03:40