http://www.drivelinemechanics.com/2008/9/12/613014/profiling-tim-lincecum Profiling Tim Lincecum by dixieflatline on Sep 12, 2008 9:31 AM PDT in PITCHf/x Work 分析林盲肠 While profiling CC Sabathia early this week, I mentioned that Sabathia recently overtook Tim Lincecum as the pitcher who has accrued the most pitcher abuse points this season (which Lincecum has now taken back after his last start). I concluded that Sabathia really didn't seem phased by a lot of innings or some large pitch count games. A reader who is an avid Giants fan was interested in a similar look at Tim Lincecum to see how he is holding up in September. There are reasons to be concerned about the heavy workload Lincecum has received this year in comparison to a pitcher like Sabathia. First, Lincecum is 24 and not yet past the injury nexus. Second, Lincecum has already thrown more than twenty more innings than he had thrown last year and will likely end up shattering the 200 innings pitched level (he is at 198 2/3 right now). Before we dive in to Lincecum's wear pattern let's look at a little deeper into what makes him so successful. 　　上礼拜分析C.C. Sabathia的时候，我发现Sabathia最近超越了Tim Lincecum， 成为滥用投手指数最高的投手 (但上次先发林盲肠又讨回来了　囧)。 也许Sabathia 负荷不了如此多的局数，与高投球量的比赛。一个热心的巨人球迷想看到关於林盲肠 的类似分析，以预期他九月的表现。林盲肠跟Sabathia比起来，他今年的高投球量有 几个理由： 1.林盲肠才24岁而且没有伤病史 2.林盲肠已经比去年多投了20几局，投 球局数将达到200局的等级 (现在198又2/3局)。我们在看林盲肠的消耗图之前，先来 看看他为何会如此成功。 Tim Lincecum Movement 2007 原图：http://assets.sbnation.com/assets/27503/Tim_Lincecum.gif 垂 20┌──────────────────────── o Fastball 直 │ x Curve 位 15├ o oo oo　　　　　 　　 　　 + Slider 移 │ ooooo oo oo o * Change ︵ 10├ o oo oo*o*oo*ooo o 英 │ o oooo *o*o**ooo 寸 5├ * o*oo*o *o**+ ++ + │ ︶ │ * ** * *** *+ *+ +++ │ 0├ * *** * *++x++xx │ │ * x+ +xx x xx │ -5├ xxx xxx xxxx x │ │ xxx xxx xx │ -10├ xx xxx │ │ │ -15├ │ │ │ -20└──┴──┴──┴──┴──┴──┴──┴──┴──┘ -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 　　　水平位移（英寸） Tim Lincecum right now is a four pitch pitcher; fastball, change-up, slider, and curve. When I profiled Lincecum before the season began I noted that his fastball was a four seamer because of the huge vertical "rise" he gets with that pitch and the relatively small horizontal movement. It turns out I was wrong and this is actually Lincecum’s two seamer! I have never seen a pitcher throw a two seamer that fast, and with that movement. It is my understanding that Tim can’t control his four seamer so you wonder what kind of velocity and movement if he did throw a four seamer. Two seamer or four seamer the important thing here is he is throwing it around 95 MPH which obviously is awesome. 　　Tim Lincecum现在拥有四种武器：速球、变速、滑球、与曲球。当我在季前分析 林盲肠的时候，我以为他的速球是四缝线。因为它有巨大的垂直上升位移，与相对较 小的水平位移。结果我错了，这其实是林盲肠的二缝线！我从没看过那麽快的二缝线 ，而且有那种恶心的位移。我想也许林盲肠无法精确控制他的四缝线速球，当他真的 投四缝线时，天知道会有怎样的球速和位移。 不管二缝还四缝，他都能投到95mph， 这显然是惊死人的球速。 Lincecum curve is a very hard curve thrown at over 80 MPH but he still gets above average movement with the pitch. That is a deadly combination, most curveballs that have that much movement have to be thrown slower so there is more risk that a batter will identify the pitch in flight. This one two punch really reminds me of Ben Sheets who also throws mid-90’s with a very hard curve. Sheets’ curve is a little more 12 to 6 while Lincecum’s is a little more 11 to 5 but both clearly get the job done. Because of the extra horizontal movement Lincecum’s curve is especially tough on right handed batters who have to deal with a ball that is dropping fast and tailing away from them. 　　林盲肠的暴力曲球可以超过80mph，但仍有高於平均的位移。这是一个致命组合！ 通常曲球要有如此大的位移，就必须投慢一点，但也增加了打者辨识它的风险。这让 我想起Ben Sheets，同样拥有mid-90的速球跟强力曲球，就像双重重拳一般。Sheets 的曲球是12-6，林盲肠则比较像11-5，但同样都能达成任务。因为林盲肠的曲球还有 额外的水平位移，对右打者而言会更难应付：同时要面对急速的下坠，且跑向外角。 The thing that separates Lincecum’s stuff from Sheets is his change-up. While Sheets has been throwing a change-up more this year he gets very little speed differential with the pitch. Lincecum however generates more than ten MPH difference between his fastball and his change. That is very good and puts that pitch near elite levels. Lincecum had just started throwing a change-up in the pros so this is somewhat of a new pitch for him but I really liked what I saw last year and wanted him to throw it more. Lincecum has done just that this year especially to left handed batters and he is throwing it as a strikeout pitch. Because his curve isn’t quite 12 to 6 it moves in to left handed batters and tends to end up down and in which is the happy zone for many lefties. Enter Lincecum’s change-up which moves down and away from lefties with a huge speed differential. This is the perfect weapon for him and he is using it perfectly right now 　　林盲肠跟Sheets的stuff最大的差别，是他的变速球。今年Sheets投的比较多的 那颗变速球，速差并没有很大。 但林盲肠在他的速球和变速球之间，却能制造超过 10mph的速差。这实在棒透了，是一个精英级的球路。林盲肠是进入职业生涯才开始 投变速球的，但去年让我看得很苏胡，我希望他多投一点。 林盲肠常拿它来对付左 打者，当作三振的决胜球。 因为他的曲球不是直直的12-6，会往左打者移动，有时 甚至掉进他们内角低的甜蜜点。 他的变速球则能往左打者的外角低移动，且有锐利 的速差。这是林盲肠的绝佳武器，他目前也用得很称手。 The slider is a brand new pitch which he worked on in the off season and is different from the slider he threw in college. He began the year throwing more sliders but as the year has gone on he has been using the pitch less and less. It is a hard slider checking in at around 85 MPH and actually hardly moves at all with around two inches of horizontal and vertical break. I generally am not a fan of a slider with such little movement and Lincecum’s slider is no exception. When a slider doesn’t have more horizontal movement the pitcher can’t start the pitch on the outside corner and then move it out of the strike zone. When he does throw the slider it often is on a two strike count which again I wouldn’t do too much of as he isn’t getting the movement needed to make this a truly effective strikeout pitch. I wouldn’t mind him throwing the slider early in the count in the strike zone as hitters gear up for the fastball. That said, Lincecum is very rarely using this pitch right now so really it doesn’t make a big deal. 　　滑球则是他季後才练出的全新球路，跟他大学时代的滑球不同。今年一开始他投 了比较多滑球，但随着球季进行，已经越来越减少了。 这是一颗以85mph进垒的强力 滑球，且同时有2英寸的水平和垂直位移。 我通常不会迷上位移这麽少的滑球，即使 是林盲肠的也不例外。当缺乏足够的水平位移时，投手就无法把它锁定在外角的角落 ，再依靠球的变化移出好球带。他通常在两好球时投滑球，但依然不能成为有效的三 振球种。我宁愿他在一开始打者期待速球时，就把滑球往好球带丢。反正林盲肠滑球 也投的不多，所以管他的。 林盲肠的放球点 There is one more thing I want to mention before getting to Lincecum’s wear pattern. The other thing that we can see with PITCHf/x but can’t yet really break down is variability in release point. Previously, I have noted pitchers who have an exact release point which they stick with all the time and other pitchers who really vary their release point dropping their arm down on occasion. Lincecum definitely falls into the second category with a huge variation in release point of almost two feet. 　　在看林盲肠的消耗图之前，还有一件事我想提一下。我们能从PITCHf/x的资料看出 ，却无法准确分析他放球点的变化。之前我说有些投手拥有准确的放球点，且随时都是 固定的。另外一些投手则会改变放球点，并依需要降低他们的手臂。林盲肠很显然是属 於第二种投手：他放球点的差异可以大到2英尺。 放球点的图：http://assets.sbnation.com/assets/27506/Tim_Lincecum4.gif Notice that as the release point widens it also drops. This means that it is a change in arm angle and not the pitcher moving from side to side on the mound. A 95 MPH fastball is rather unfair in and of itself but when you team that with not being certain where the ball is coming from and it is no wonder why hitters have no chance. Lincecum tends not to drop down as much when throwing his curve (and slider) but there is still plenty of variation even there. I haven’t run the numbers on this yet but my guess is a large variation in release point helps the pitcher. How much of a help I can’t say. The other issue is if you have such a wide variation in release point what does that say about your mechanics? PITCHf/x says absolutely nothing about what is going on before the ball is thrown and this is an area that I know little about so I will leave that to other to discuss but something I did want to point out. Ok finally on to Lincecum’s wear pattern. 　　注意他的放球点不只变宽而且变低。这表示他改变了手臂的角度，而不是投手在 投手丘上的移动。 一颗95mph的速球，而且还不知道是从哪里出手的，难怪打者连摸 都摸不到了。投曲球时(滑球也是)，林盲肠的出手点不会降低那麽多，但依然变化十 足。我没有详实地分析这些数据，但我猜放球点的改变是投手的一大利器！是怎样的 投球机制，才会造成放球点如此大的变化呢？从PITCHf/x数据显然看不出来，这也不 是我的专长，我只是想提出来讨论而已。 好啦，终於要看林盲肠的消耗图了。 Lincecum Fastball Wear Pattern 2008 原图：http://assets.sbnation.com/assets/27509/TL_fb_2008.gif 平 105┌──────────────────────── ˙ 球速 均 ├ │˙│˙ │˙│ ││ │ │ ˙ 水平位移 球 ├ ˙│˙│ ˙│˙││˙˙　˙││˙│ │ │˙ 垂直位移 速 100├ │ │ ││ │˙˙││││˙˙│˙ │˙││˙ ┐ 10 平 ︵ ├ ˙ │ ˙ ││ │˙ ││ ││˙│˙˙│ ┤ 均 英 ├ ││˙││││ │ │˙│││ ││˙│ │││ ┤ 位 哩 95├ ˙│˙│˙˙│˙│˙│˙˙˙│˙˙│ │˙˙˙│ ┤ 5 移 ︶ ├ │ │˙││˙│˙│ │││˙││˙│˙│││˙ ┤ ︵ ├ │ │ │ │ │˙│││ │ ┤ 英 90├ │ │˙ ││││˙˙ │ ┤ 0 寸 ├ ││ ˙│ │ │││˙││˙˙│˙│││˙ ┤ ︶ ├ ˙˙││ │˙│˙│˙˙˙│ ˙││˙│ ˙│ ┤ 85├ │││˙˙ │˙│˙│││ │ │ │ ┤-5 ├ ˙ │││ │ │ ┤ ├ │ ˙ ┤ 80├ │ ┤-10 ├ ┤ ├ ┤ 75└──┴──┴──┴──┴──┴──┴──┴──┴──┴──┘-15 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 220 240 260 280 天数 For an explanation of how to read this plot check here. Because of the wide variation in release point his horizontal and vertical movements have really been bouncing around all year. Also notice the large spread in movement especially horizontally. This makes perfect sense as the largest spread in his release point is horizontally as well. Notice that while there doesn’t seem to be much of a trend in the vertical movement up or down throughout the year there is a trend to less horizontal movement. It isn’t a perfect line but there is definitely a trend. 　　因为放球点的差异很大，他的水平和垂直位移也呈现剧烈跳动。特别注意水平 位移的广大分布，这证明了他的放球点也是以水平的改变居多。虽然垂直位移一年 来并没有显着变化，但水平位移却有逐渐减少的趋势。虽然不是完美的曲线，但这 趋势确实存在。 Movement is nice but the thing that makes Tim Lincecum’s fastball so good is the velocity. Lincecum’s velocity has been more consistent in game that either his horizontal or vertical movement which we would expect looking at his release point. Here too there is definitely a trend and this time it is pointing down. In the first few months of the season, Lincecum’s fastball average above 95 MPH in all but a handful of games. In the last month, none of his starts have resulted in an average fastball above 95 MPH. This trend is small, only one to two MPH, but it is noticeable and slightly worrying combined with the decrease in horizontal movement. 　　Tim Lincecum的速球尾劲很赞，但让它成为顶级球路是因为球速。虽然他的水平 和垂直位移要依据放手点而定，实战球速却能始终保持高峰。球速也有一个向下沉沦 的趋势：在球季开始的几个月，林盲肠除了屈指可数的几场比赛外，速球的均速都能 飙破95mph。最後的几个月，却没有半场均速超过95mph。这趋势很微小，可能只有一 到二英哩的差距，但混杂了水平位移的减少，是值得注意且令人担忧的。 Those two variables really tend to go hand in hand for most pitchers. When the release point is up, the velocity is up, and the horizontal movement is down. When the release point is lower everything else is reversed. You likely have heard the saying that a pitcher has traded some speed for movement and this is exactly what they are talking about. Here, Lincecum’s horizontal movement is down and so is his velocity. It could be that if Lincecum was throwing with the same movement he had in the beginning of the year now that his velocity would be even lower than it is now. 　　大多数的投手都能掌握两个变因：当放球点提高，球速也会上升，但水平位移则 减少。如果降低放球点，这两个变因就会反过来。你可能听过，某个投手牺牲了一些 球速，换来更好的位移。现在，林盲肠的球速和水平位移都下降了。如果他想要投出 季初那样的位移，甚至球速还必须进一步下降。 While I did want to point that out I do want to mention that these wear patterns are very new and no league average has been established yet. It could be that an average starter would tend to lose more on his fastball as the year goes on than Lincecum has. Also, his last four starts have been very consistent velocity wise so it is very possible that thing are stabilizing a tick above 94 MPH which still puts him near the top of the league velocity wise. 　　我想提的是，这种消耗图还很新，联盟平均值还没有建立起来。也许先发投手随 着球季的进行，平均会比林盲肠失去更多速球的优势。他的最後四场先发也能维持稳 定的均速。94mph的均速依旧让他站在联盟球速金字塔的顶端。 In conclusion, Tim Lincecum is truly a great pitcher who is a lot more than just his fastball. His off speed pitches don’t get a lot of press but his curveball and change-up are both plus pitches at worst. Lincecum has thrown a lot of innings and has gone deep into many games this year and that is something the Giants should monitor very closely. It does appear that Lincecum has lost a little heat on the fastball but it isn’t like he is falling off a cliff so I don’t think it is anything major but something to pay attention to. 　　结论是：林盲肠是个不仅只有速球的伟大投手。虽然慢速球没有给打者造成太大 的压力，但至少他的曲球和变速球都是顶级的。林盲肠吃掉了大量的局数，且常常投 到比赛的後段，这是巨人队需要密切观察注意的。虽然林盲肠的速球失去了一些球威 ，但还不至於让他从悬崖掉下来。没什麽重大问题，但的确有几个值得观察的地方。 --

※ 发信站: 批踢踢实业坊(ptt.cc) ◆ From: 118.168.69.247 ※ 编辑: wingmouse 来自: 118.168.69.247 (09/14 12:44)