作者YGJHSU (杰)
看板MLB
标题That's Debatable: Who is the NL Cy Young
时间Thu Sep 4 00:10:52 2008
前文恕删
我来简单翻译一下这篇文章好了 因为个人对NL Cy最後究竟奖落谁家也蛮好奇的
原文:
That's Debatable: Who is the NL Cy Young?
Who should be the NL Cy Young award winner? [Brandon] Webb? [Tim] Lincecum?
or CC [Sabathia]?
Can a pitcher who wasn't even in the National League two months ago
(Sabathia) win the Cy Young? Can a pitcher who was 19-4 until a week ago
(Webb) not win the Cy Young? Can voters finally learn to ignore win totals
and give proper consideration to maybe the best candidate of all (Lincecum)?
That's what we're here to debate, friends -- an NL Cy Young race that gets
more fascinating, and confusing, all the time. So let's sort this out as best
we can.
The case for Webb
Despite two shockingly messy losses in the last week, Brandon Webb is still
having a fabulous season. He's just about a lock to lead the league in wins.
He could still wind up leading the league in innings pitched. He has a better
strikeout-to-walk ratio than Lincecum (3.14 to 3.00). And we have to be
realistic about how voters have historically voted on this award.
尽管最近两场输的难看,但蛇王整季的表现仍非常精彩。他在胜投及局数这两项取得领先
同时有着比Lincecum更佳的K/BB。不可忽视的是,投票者对於这个奖项一贯的态度。
If we don't count years in which relief pitchers won, there have only been
three years under the current voting system (implemented in 1970) that a
pitcher lost a Cy Young in a season in which he had at least four more wins
than the award-winner.
除去拿到Cy的RP不看,1970年後只有3次,胜投数领先该年Cy winner四场以上的投手没拿
到Cy。
One was 1999, when Randy Johnson (17-9, 2.48) beat Mike Hampton (22-4, 2.90)
in a season in which the Unit (364 K's) made a run at Nolan Ryan's modern
strikeout record. Another was 1984, the Rick Sutcliffe year, which I'll get
to later. And the third was 1973, when Ron Bryant went 24-12 for the Giants
but was considered so un-ace-like that he only finished third. (The winner,
Tom Seaver, had 108 more strikeouts than Bryant and an ERA a run and a half
lower.) So history tells us that as long as Webb straightens himself out,
he's still likely to win this award.
第一次是99年Randy Johnson (该年他击败两位20胜级投手),但是飙出了接近Nolan Ryan
现代棒球单季三振的纪录。第二次是84年Rick Sutcliffe。第三次是73年Ron Bryant。
历史告诉我们,只要Webb继续照他的进度走下去,他很有可能拿下Cy。
The case for Lincecum
Tim Lincecum has been getting way too little play in this debate for way too
long, anyway. But Webb's mini-funk has helped bring Lincecum back into the
conversation. And it's about time.
True, Lincecum has four fewer wins (19 to 15). But how much of that is his
fault? He's 15-3, with five blown saves and six CUS (?Criminally Unsupported
Starts -- games in which he pitched at least six innings and his team scored
one run or none while he was in the game). Webb has one blown save and only
two CUS. So that accounts for your gap in wins, gang.
目前Lincecum胜投落後Webb 4场,但他成绩是15胜3败。有5场胜投被搞砸,有6场他投满
6局以上,队友却帮他得不到2分。Webb只有1场胜投被搞砸、2场投满6局以上,队友打的
分数不到2分的状况。所以这就造成了4场胜场的差距。艮。
Toss wins out of the discussion, and Lincecum looks as if he has clearly
outpitched Webb by most standards. Lincecum leads in ERA by more than
three-quarters of a run (2.43 to 3.19), leads in strikeouts by 50 (210 to
160) and tops the league in both categories. Lincecum also leads the NL in
OPS allowed (.609), quality-start percentage (22 of 27, 81 percent) and
strikeout ratio (10.2 per 9 IP). And unlike Sabathia, you may have noticed
that he has been in the same league, on the same team, all season.
不看胜投的话,Lincecum在大部分标准衡量都比Webb出色:ERA比较低(2:60:3.19) 三振
比较多(216:160),同时在这两项都是联盟第一。Lincecum另外领先国联的数据是,OPS
最低(.609) QS比率最高(81%) 以及K/9 (10.2)。不像C.C.,Lincecum整年都待在巨人队
真是有够悲惨。
The case for Sabathia
If we had a Cy Young Since July 8 Award, CC Sabathia definitely would win that
one. Since he first took the mound in Bud Selig's favorite metropolis, Sabathia
leads the league in wins (9-0), ERA (1.43), innings pitched (88) and shutouts
(three). He has also been a jolt of electricity for his franchise, and one of
the great pennant-race acquisitions of all time.
如果Cy可以从7/8之後开始算,C.C一定可以拿下。他从那之後缴出了9胜 1.43ERA 3场完封
的鬼神演出。带给酒鬼无限的希望。
What he hasn't been, unfortunately, is a National Leaguer (or a Brewer) all
year.
可惜他不是整季的国联、或者说是酒鬼队投手。
So he can only win this award if the Rick Sutcliffe Principal applies.
Sutcliffe is the only pitcher ever to change leagues in midseason and win a
Cy Young. But in 1984, the year he won, he was traded on June 13 -- nearly a
month earlier than Sabathia -- and had time to go 16-1. That gave him 20 wins
for the full season, equal to the total of the winningest NL pitcher, Joaquin
Andujar (20-14). Then again, if Sabathia goes 5-0 in September, that would
make him 14-0 as a Brewer, 20-8 for the full season. The question is: Would
that be enough?
回头看看84年的Sutcliffe。他是史上唯一一位换联盟还拿到Cy的投手。但在1984,他被
交易那年,他是6/13被交易的,比C.C早一个月左右。因此他可以把他後半季的成绩延伸
到16胜1败。如果C.C九月5战全胜,就可以把国联成绩推进到14胜0败,整季20胜8败。
这样够吗?
The verdict
Like everyone else who has watched Sabathia pitch, I'd love to
figure out a way to give him some kind of award. But this is the "National
League Cy Young," not the "Multi-League Cy Young" or the "Final 2 3/4-Months
of the Year Cy Young." So I think this award should go to the pitcher who has
outperformed all his National League competition for the entire season, not
just the portion of the season in which Sabathia has been in his league. And
if you look seriously at the big picture -- not just win totals or the last
two months -- I believe that pitcher is Tim Lincecum.
结论:C.C应该没有机会了,尽管他下半季表现让人印象超深刻。如果你不要把眼光单单
放在胜投,或是最近两个月的表现上的话,我的选择会是Tim Lincecum。
--
※ 发信站: 批踢踢实业坊(ptt.cc)
◆ From: 220.134.179.129
※ 编辑: YGJHSU 来自: 220.134.179.129 (09/04 00:12)
※ 编辑: YGJHSU 来自: 220.134.179.129 (09/04 00:25)
1F:推 goopa:辛苦了,刚刚临时接个电话,所以没有翻完,感谢补完! :) 09/04 00:36
2F:→ goopa:那我就把上文删掉了..:D 09/04 00:37
3F:推 Rodriguez:感恩推~ 09/04 00:41
4F:推 kaigogo:推~ 文中gang翻成"艮"真是XD 09/04 00:41
5F:推 crazyranger:推"艮"XD 09/04 01:00
6F:推 joy:看到4楼..我不争气的笑了QQ 09/04 01:26
7F:推 wingmouse:那个艮 可以感觉到林盲肠满满的干液 09/04 01:47
8F:推 pika751106:gang是自己加的吗XD 09/04 10:08
9F:推 neutromind:Gang~~~ Lincecum is the ONE !!! 09/05 09:46