最近十分流行轰炸水手　FO 团队... 那 USSMariner.com的老大哥Dave Cameron 怎麽能 错过呢？ＸＤ　（好像是在Bavasi被火的前几天写的） http://tinyurl.com/58mhn9 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ As I write this, the Seattle Mariners have the worst record in baseball at 24-42. They stand 16 1/2 games behind the first place Angels and, worse, they stand a staggering nine games behind the third place Texas Rangers. The team will have to play inspired baseball for the rest of the season to just avoid finishing in last place, and suffice it to say, this isn't how the front office saw the 2008 season going. 在我写此同时水手的战绩是大联盟最差的　24-42。 他们不但是离第一名的天使有16.5场 的差距，更惨的是他们距离第三名的游骑兵都差了九场!!!!这支球队需要在剩下的赛程中 有神奇的力量加持才能够不垫底。　这很明显的不是水手FO想像中的球季。 "It's a completely demoralizing position we're in right now, based on the completely legitimate (preseason) expectations" was the line recently offered up by General Manager Bill Bavasi after last week's sweep at the hand of an Angels roster missing Vladimir Guerrero and Chone Figgins in a series where John Lackey didn't take the mound. Even with the reality of lousiness staring them in the face, the executives in charge of compiling this roster are unwilling to admit that this team was assembled poorly. It wasn't just a bad move here or an underperforming player there, but a long series of poor decisions that have led to this abysmal season. In fact, the foundations for this failure were laid years ago. Let's look at where this disaster started. ”这是个令人完全绝望的情况，尤其是相对於我们开季前完全合理的期待”　这是GM 猪头Ｂ　在上礼拜被缺Guerrero / Figgan 跟没有轮到John Lackey投球的天使横扫後的发 言。　即使面对惨烈的现实负责组合这个球队的主管们还是不愿意承认他们的球队组成彻 底失败。　这不是因为一两个错误/不幸的决定或是ㄧ两个球员出乎意料的低潮而造成的 球季，事实上今年的失败再多年前就已经注定，让我们来看看这个灾难是如何开始的吧。 October 27, 2003 Coming off a 93 win season that saw the team fade down the stretch and fail to make the playoffs, Pat Gillick resigned as GM and was replaced by Bill Bavasi, but the basic plan for that offseason was laid before Gillick ever stepped aside. Central to that plan was the decision to decline an offer of arbitration to Mike Cameron, who badly wanted to stay in Seattle. Cameron was vastly underappreciated by the organization due to his contact problems and their failure to understand just how valuable his glove was in center field. Two weeks later, they announced the signing of Raul Ibanez to play left field, shifting Randy Winn to cover center in Cameron's absence. At the time, they noted the defensive downgrade but explained that it would be more than offset by the offensive improvement. Ibanez has hit well since returning to Seattle, but his defense in left field can only be described as atrocious and is one of the most glaring issues that has sunk the 2008 team to the bottom of the A.L. West. The seeds of the Ibanez-as-LF disaster were planted on the day that the team decided to jettison Cameron and make a conscious decision to sacrifice defense while chasing minor offensive improvements. 10/27/2003 在球队因为季末的崩盘而导致这只93胜的球队没有进入季後赛之後，Pat Gillick因此请辞 ＧＭ而猪头Ｂ接任，但在此时基本的计画已经拟定了。这个计画的核心就是不给Mike Cameron 薪资仲裁，Ｃameron很想留在西雅图但是球队因为他是电风扇而不喜欢他，也同 时严重的低估了他的手套在中外野的重要性，两周後他们签下了Raul 一半椰子，并决定让 Randy Winn 守中外野，　在此时他们有提到守备的问题但是认为打击的进步会能拟补这个 问题，一半椰子回到西雅图後打得很好，但是他的守备只能以恐怖来形容，而这个超烂的 守备也是今年水手核爆的原因之一。这个结果在当年球队为了追求一点点打击升级而放弃 了很大的守备驻的因。 January 8, 2004 The Mariners organization has long been infatuated with player personalities and their effects on team chemistry, often making headscratching decisions based not on on-field ability but instead on thier preconceived notions of leadership and how the game is supposed to be played. That move is typified in the decision to literally give Carlos Guillen to the Tigers, as the organization had grown weary of his late-night drinking and his perceived negative influence on Freddy Garcia. They decided that they would rather go with Rich Aurilia as their shortstop - a guy who more fit their mold of how players should approach the game than Guillen. Aurilia was a gigantic bust and was released four months later, while Guillen has gone on to become one of the American League's best infielders ever since. It was impossible to see Guillen's breakout coming at the time, but the logic used - choosing to field a worse baseball team in order to have better people on it - has haunted the organization repeatedly over the years. 1/8/2004 水手球团很重视球员的人品，也因此常常做出白目的决定，放走比较有能力的球员而请来 比较有人品的球员，这类的动作代表当然是把Carlos Guillen免费送给老虎队然後去签下 Rich Aurilla 来打游击，只因为他们讨厌爱喝酒的Guillen，而认为好人Aurillia会因此 让球队比较”团结”，结果Aurilla烂到四个月後就被丢了而Guillen从那时开始是美联最 有价值的内野手之一。当然当时不大可能看到Guillen会忽然进步，但是当时把他放走的逻 辑这些年来多次的伤害了球队。 December 15, 2004 After a disastrous 2003 season, the organization was determined to make a big splash and find some new offensive stars to build around, using their financial advantage over the rest of the division to rebuild through free agency. They coveted Carlos Delgado's left-handed power, but after a long dance with him over contract terms, they got tired of waiting and threw $52 million at Plan B - Richie Sexson. Heading into his age 30 season and coming off a major injury while possessing classic old player skills, making a long term commitment to a player with Sexson's profile looked remarkably foolish at the time, and the concerns we raised about guaranteeing an aging Sexson big money have proven true with time. He's simply aged very poorly and is not a major league quality starting first baseman anymore, but the Mariners owe him $15.5 million for the 2008 season. Instead of looking at an aging veteran heading for decline and finding a younger, cheaper alternative, the organization focused on intangibles such as Sexson's intimidating power and ability to be an RBI man. Unwilling to admit that they had missed the boat on how he was going to age, Mariners fans instead got to watch his career end mercilessly during both the '07 and '08 seasons, while Sexson became the embodiment of everything wrong with this team. 在惨烈的03球季後球团决定利用他们的金钱优势去找些火力，他们本来想追Carlos Delgado，但是在条件许久还谈不拢的情况下他们没耐心了，因此砸了4/52 去买　Richie Sexson. Sexson 当时要年满30岁而且上一个球季伤痛不断，丢钱去签这种老人球型的打者 长约当时就看起来很危险，而我们当时对这个合约的质疑经得起时间的考验，他老化的速 度非常的快而现在根本不是大联盟级的先发球员了，但是水手还欠他15.5M。 在当时没看 到一个已经开始要快速走下坡的球员而被一些虚幻的能力如他”吓人”的炮瓦或是他是 ”经过证明的打点人”迷惑的水手球团不愿意承认他们的错误，也因此水手球迷得以观赏 他的选手生涯在这两年大爆炸，性儿子已经成为了这支球队问题的象徵。 December 22, 2005 If there's one glaring flaw the front office of the Mariners has, it's a total inability to evaluate pitching talent. They come from a bent that is entirely seduced by results and cares nothing about the process or the context that those results were produced in. Nowhere is this more obvious than when the Mariners gave Jarrod Washburn a 4-year, $37.5 million deal to leave the Angels and join their starting rotation. Washburn was coming off a 2005 season where he posted an obviously flukey 3.20 ERA, built entirely on a house of runner-stranding cards. His league high left-on-base percentage predictably regressed to the mean, and he went right back to being the #5 starter that he's been for years. Instead of being a solidifying force in the rotation, Washburn has given the M's 445 innings with a 4.72 ERA in a terrific pitcher's park since signing. Despite having to watch him implode in 2008, the M's are on the hook for another $10 million in salary in 2009, and they'd be lucky to give Washburn away at this point. Thanks to a pitching analysis based on results, the organization continues to just wildly misunderstand how to predict future run prevention, and this is most obvious with the Washburn contract. By the way, the next best offer Washburn had on the table was 2 years at a total of $14 million. 12/22/2005 水手球团最糟糕的就是他们完全缺乏评估投手的能力，完全的备结果迷惑而对於过程浑然 不觉，这个最糟糕的范例就是跟Jarrod Washburn 签下 4/37.5的合约，洗炸弹05年交出了 漂亮的3.20 ERA，但是那完全是因为对手垒上打击严重便秘的好运，这个好运可想而知的 很快的就吐回来了，而他也回到了他五号先发的真面目，他不但没有如水手预期的稳固 轮值，反而给了他们445局的4.72ERA...在一个很好的投手球场。　水手在09年还欠他10M 而现在他们大概想把洗炸弹送人都没人要了。因为这种只看结果的主管让水手完全没有任 何评估投手未来成功的能力。　当时洗炸弹第二好的约只有 2/14. January 4, 2006 Faced with a strong desire for some "left handed sock," the M's focused on a list of low-cost, one-year options to fill the hole at Designated Hitter. Completely ignoring the entire concept of replacement level, the M's disregarded every player on the planet that wasn't a proven veteran with a long track record of success, essentially ensuring they were going to get a washed-up old timer on his last legs. That guy turned out to be Carl Everett, and his could-see-it-coming-a-mile-away failure both doomed the offense and led to an even more heinous transaction, when the Mariners shipped Asdrubal Cabrera and Shin-Soo Choo to Cleveland in separate deals to acquire the DH platoon of Ben Broussard and Eduardo Perez. Neither of the new acquisitions did much to help an offense that was in disrepair, and the careless giving away of talented youngsters in search of proven veterans depleted the farm system of guys who could have helped the team down the line. When asked directly why the team chose Everett over free talent guys such as Carlos Pena, Bavasi replied that "we know Everett can hit 5th or 6th in the line-up, and Pena just hasn't proven that he can do that yet". Good call, Bill. 1/4/2006 为了追求左炮，水手看了一群可以打一年工的低价选择，然後完全排除任何缺乏长期成功 的名子，这就已经保证了他们绝对会签到一个快玩完的老人，那个老人结果是恐龙 Everett， 而这个三岁小童都可以看出会完蛋的约造成了更多後续的伤害，在Everett不出 所料的失败後水手分次的把Asdrubal Cabrera 跟秋信守送给了笑脸人换来DH 轮值Edurdo Perez 跟　Ben Broussard，两人都没啥帮助，而水手不小心丢出的球员让他们也因此没有 了小联盟的可能生力军。　在事後被问到为何签下了Everett而不是Carlos Pena, 猪头Ｂ 回答”因为我们确定Everrett可以打5/6棒，Pena 没有证明他可以”　伟哉! 猪头Ｂ December 7, 2006 In another transaction that was bad enough on its own and unbelievably horrible based on the future events it led to, we have the inexplicable Rafael Soriano for Horacio Ramirez trade. The M's were tired of Soriano's lack of durability and believed that his elbow was a ticking time bomb, so they set out to trade him at the winter meetings that year. They settled on a left-handed National Leaguer with a NL fastball because "he'd won some games before" and the Braves were willing to make him available. Ramirez was a complete disaster, giving the Mariners 100 innings of below replacement level performance before getting released. To replace Soriano, the Mariners then converted 2006 #1 draft pick Brandon Morrow into a relief pitcher, believing that they needed a new power arm to replace the one they just lost. Two years later and Morrow is still stuck in the bullpen, losing precious development time and not being able to be viewed as a potential option for the rotation. Because Morrow wasn't considered starter material, the Mariners blew $48 million on tub-of-goo Carlos Silva and then spent a first round pick on Josh Fields in the 2008 draft in order to have a new power reliever in the organization to allow them to move Morrow back to the rotation eventually. By trading Soriano, the M's not only got back a horrible pitcher, but they also opened several holes on the roster that they then spent precious valuable resources trying to fill. 12/7/2006 又是一个本身就很糟而後续的影响正是遭透的交易，水手因为不喜欢Rafael Soriano的 痛痛人倾向而决定一定要交易他，然後他们去换了国联投手Horacio Rameriez.因为 Rameriez "曾经赢过不少次”Rameriez 完全的失败，给了水手超过100局比replacement level 还差很多的成绩，而因为没了Soriano水手决定他们”必须”要有一个火球RP， 因此把他们当时最好的农作物投手Brandon Morrow改RP， Morrow因此失去了宝贵的发展时 间，而又因为Morrow变成ＲＰ水手砸了4/48去买一桶肥油 Carlos Silva，然後又因为 Silva 炸了所以急着把Morrow转回SP 然後第一回选了RP Josh Fields。 这个交易不只 造成了一个洞，而是为了补这个洞後面又开了更多洞。 December 18, 2006 Finally, the cherry on top of this amazing series of bad roster moves. Determined to not let Everett go down as the worst designated hitter in organizational history, the M's made the decision to fill their DH role for 2007 with a broken down middle infielder who had the power of an eight-year-old girl. The Nationals simply wanted to move Jose Vidro, who didn't fit in a league where defense was required, and somehow convinced the Mariners to pick up $12 million of the remaining $18 million left on Vidro's contract. The rationale given was that a move to DH would somehow restore the 32-year-old's power and, besides, they really needed a #2 hitter who didn't strike out, despite the fact that they had a team full of guys whose best skill was contact and lacked power. Not surprisingly, Vidro's power never returned, and he's posted a .289/.350/.376 line since coming over in the trade from Washington. Only in Seattle would that be acceptable as a performance from a designated hitter completely incapable of playing the field or running the bases, but somehow, that's what the organization decided they wanted. Vidro's presence on the roster not only kept the remains of Ibanez comically chasing fly balls in the outfield, but it also has forced them to keep top prospect Jeff Clement languishing in Tacoma while he destroys Pacific Coast League pitching. Hilariously, Vidro's 2008 performance has been so terrible (.215/.260/.323) that most fans are amazed he hasn't been released yet, but John McLaren's lineup construction veers so far from reality that he's spent the last two weeks alternating between the 3rd and 4th spots in the batting order. Seriously, Vidro, he of the .583 OPS, spent several games hitting cleanup for the Mariners recently. I wish I was kidding. 12/18/2006 最後的杰作，水手为了确保恐龙Everrett不是队史上最糟的ＤＨ而决定去换一个完全没瓦 的伤痛老人来当ＤＨ，那个人是Jose Vidro，国民当时只是想找任何人来拿他都可以，结 果水手还居然付了一堆钱跟农作物，他们认为打DH会让他的炮瓦恢复，结果当然没有，但 水手又说没关系，反正我们本来就想要一个不会三振的高打率二棒，虽然他们几乎整个球 队都是这种人。只有在西雅图Vidro的 .289/.350/.376 被接受成可以看的DH，也因为他 让一半椰子的屍体整天还在那里接不到飞球，而大物Jeff Clement屠杀了ＡＡＡ却也上 不来，Ｖidro今年打的之差大部分人都很意外他还没被丢，但是他最近却好几次打3/4棒， 我真希望这是个笑话。 Through it all, the Mariners front office has demonstrated a staggering lack of ability to evaluate and project major league talent. They have repeatedly misunderstood what makes a winning team and made brutally bad choices that are compounded by even worse decisions trying to fix the problems created by the first act of ignorance. Through it all, they've doggedly maintained that their ways are effective and will work despite mountains of evidence to the contrary. Team President Chuck Armstrong, talking about the season and the job status of the front office on May 25th, uttered the following quotes: 水手球团证明了他们不但完全不懂球员为何会成功，而且还根据他们完全错误的想法持续 进行而且还在之後为了拟补前面错误的情况下犯了更多的错误。　他们在罄竹难书的证据 面前还是不愿意承认错误，球团总理Chuck Armstrong 5/25: "In my 23 years, I have never ever seen anything like this," Armstrong said "We saw it the other way in 2001. I mean, you have to ask yourself, 'How did the Mariners win 116 games that season with that roster, compared to this roster?' This is just as inexplicable the other way." 我23年来从没看过这种情形，我们01年好像刚好相反，你会想说01年那种组合都可以赢116 场这种组合怎麽会这样呢？” "Their positions are secure," Armstrong said "They are not to be blamed for what's going on." 他们的工作安全，这不是他们的错。 "We have given no thought to making any changes in managerial personnel," Armstrong said. "Same for the GM. Listen, he's part of the solution, not the problem." 我们没打算换人也没打算换ＧＭ，他们是解决问题的助力不是阻力 (译者按: HAHAHAHAHA) What's worse than abject failure? How about rooting for an organization that can't even recognize the problem from the solution? The Mariners executives are so rooted in their ways, so dogmatic in their wrongheadedness, that there is seemingly no light at the end of this long tunnel that we call being a Mariner fan. $117 million dollars in payroll has bought them a roster on pace to lose 104 games, and through it all, they won't admit responsibility. It's inexplicable, after all. What else is there to be said? 什麽是比失败更糟糕呢? 支持一个连问题在哪里都看不出来的失败球团如何? 水手球团对 於他们完全错误的认知有着坚定的信仰， 让水手迷的黑暗似乎永无光明之日，117M 的 薪资买到了目前预定要输104场比赛的球队， 而同时球团认为他们是对的还能说啥呢? David Cameron, along with Derek Zumsteg, authors the ussmariner.com blog that covers the Seattle organization in more depth than they care to admit. He also writes daily for fangraphs.com as he looks to remember what it's like to enjoy watching baseball again. -- PTT 神人大大准则 1.多回少发 2.言出必酸 3.专挑语病 4.紧咬不放 5.自命清高 6.老梗重弹 7.不容异论 8.天下无敌 要是你的发言模式符合以上三点以上，恭喜你成为PTT神人。 --

※ 发信站: 批踢踢实业坊(ptt.cc) ◆ From: 59.121.111.78 ※ cd12631:转录至看板 Mariners 06/24 22:22