作者 eaquson (美月美月) 标题 [翻译] 球探问答知识+ Scouting FAQ 时间 Sat May 10 14:30:58 2008 ─────────────────────────────────────── http://www.baseballexaminer.com/FAQs/scouting_faq.htm Scouting FAQ 球探问答知识+ How large a role does scouting actually play in baseball? 球探在棒球中到底扮演多重大的角色呢? Scouting plays a larger role in baseball than it does any other sport. Sure, the NBA, NFL and NHL use advance scouts for teams they will soon play and they also scout amateur players for the upcoming draft. Baseball does both as well but still relies more heavily on scouts than the other sports, especially the NFL and NBA. 跟其他运动比起来，球探在棒球中扮演更大的角色。在NBA、NFL与NHL，球员即将进入的 球队使用advaced scouts，也有因应即将来到的选秀而以业余球员为对象的球探。 职业棒球在这两方面都做的一样好，但是依然比其他运动更依靠球探，尤其是与NFL和NBA 相比。 advanced scouts: 职业体系各队伍负责观察其他队伍球员表现，提供对战情报或所需交易资料的球探。 The other sports use game film for a great deal of the advance scouting. For amateur scouting, the NFL and NBA rely heavily on pre-draft combines to analyze prospective draftees. Baseball sends its scouts out in the field much more extensively. 其他的运动在advance scouting大量使用比赛影片。在业余球员的球探中，NFL与NBA 十分倚重选秀前每年定期合并举办的测试来分析有未来的新秀。职业棒球体系更广泛地把 球探送到各地。 scouting combine: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NFL_Combine Baseball’s amateur scouts are in the field enough to draft up to 50 rounds of talent (up to 1,500 players). The NFL uses seven rounds. The NBA uses two. Both the NFL and NBA also have a much more highly profiled feeder system in the college ranks. Baseball has to work harder to go out and find the talent consisting of collegians, high schoolers, junior college players as well as several foreign-born players in countries where English is not the native tongue. 职业棒球针对业余体系的球探，其在各地调查的成果使他们足以进行高达50轮的选秀。 (总计1500名球员)。 NFL只有七轮，NBA只有两轮。NFL与NBA两者都在大学层级有高度 详尽的资料提供体系。职业棒球必须更努力去各地寻找有天份的大专生，高中生，二专生 选手，以及一些在非英语国家出生的选手。 Baseball also has 180 rosters of minor league teams to consider for future transactions. With all the minor league teams to scout and all the amateur players to research, baseball definitely relies more on its scouts than the other sports. MLB每个球队在小联盟也有180个active roster名额以供未来交易之用。 有所有的小联盟队伍供球探观察以及所有的业余球员让他们研究，在棒球中确实比其他 运动更依靠球探。 What does a scout look for? 球探找的是什麽人呢? A scout is always looking for a potential major leaguer. And it’s all based on projection. Very rarely will a scout ever see a player who is already major league caliber. He has to see the potential of a player and do his best to forecast the future. Scouts look through the current strengths and weaknesses of a player and examine whether the tools are there to allow him to make an impact at the major league level. 一个球探总是在寻找具MLB潜力的球员。而这一切都靠估计。发现一个马上能打大联 盟的球员是很稀有的事情。他必须看球员的潜力，尽其所能去预测未来。球探要能看出球 员现在的优缺点，检视他有哪一个tool让他可以在大联盟发挥影响力。 What are these “tools” you speak of? 你说的"tool"是什麽呢? The tools are primarily in reference to position players. A scout will rate a player’s skill level for each of the five tools: hitting, power, fielding, arm strength and speed. tool主要是作为各守备位置球员的参考。一个球探会依球员在5项tool上的技能程度 打分数: hitting, power, fielding, 臂力与速度 Which of the five tools is considered most important? 这五项tool哪一个最重要呢? Well, it may depend on the primary position of a player. But for the most part, the first thing about a position player we discuss is his ability or inability to hit the ball. Scouts judge a player’s swing looking for details including, but not limited to, bat speed, a level swing, full arm extension and follow-through. 唔，这要看球员主要的守备位置。但大部分来说，关於一个守备位置上的球员我们首先 讨论的是他是否有击球的良好能力。球探由球员的挥棒中寻找几个细节，这包含但不限 制於挥棒速度，level swing，手臂的完全伸展以及击球後的完成动作。 关於level swing: http://www.baseballtips.com/print/level1.html The swing will often show its holes by the mechanics of the player’s body. A scout looks for what the feet are doing, what the hips are doing, what the shoulders are doing and several other biomechanical factors. A player with a “good bat” will make consistently good contact with the ball and the ball should bounce off the bat with some authority when struck. 挥棒常会暴露出选手身体机制的缺陷。一个球探在球员挥棒时看脚，屁屁，肩膀以及几个 其他生物力学的因素。一个有良好击球的打者会一致地与球良好地接触，当击球时球 会以一定程度的保证飞离棒子。 Isn’t power part of hitting? Why is it considered a different tool? power不是hitting的一部分吗?为什麽被视为不同的tool? Power is part of hitting, but it’s a different aspect of it. Hitting as a tool judges a player’s ability to put the ball sharply in play. Power as a tool is the ability to hit the ball high and far. power是hitting的一部份，但那是hitting的另外一部份。hitting作为一种特殊能力可 以判断出球员把球犀利地打进场的能力。power为一种特殊能力则是把球打得又高又远的 能力。 Consider power a supplemental tool to hitting. Without a good hitting approach, power will be much more difficult to realize. A good hitter who lacks power will find it reasonably easier to later add power than will a player with good power-potential lacking a “good bat” develop into a well-rounded hitter. I know that was a complicated statement, so after you spend a moment to further examine it more closely, consider the following simplified version: power will feed off the hitting, not vice versa. power是hitting的补充工具。没有好的hitting方法，power会很难实现。一个缺乏power 的良好击球打者，在後来长出power的可能性，要比一个有power潜力但缺乏"良好挥击" 的打者，发展成健全的打者来的容易。我知道这样说有点复杂，所以在你花点时间 进一步检视之前，考虑一下底下的简化说法:power会因为hitting好而逐渐提升，反 之则不然。 A good hitter will, with experience, eventually show some power by adding a loft to his swing and making other subtle adjustments. That is partly why power is typically the last of the five tools to develop. Power is also late to develop because, though young players may already have a good swing, bodies aren’t fully matured until the early-to-mid 20s. A player at age 18, 19 or 20 is not nearly as strong and filled-out as he will be by age 24, 25 and on. And scouts are asked to predict how strong a boy is expected to be when he becomes a man. Not easy! 一个好的打者会随着经验的增加，以提高击球高度或其他细微的调整最终展现出一些power 。这是为什麽power一般来说是五项tool中最後发展的一部份原因。power较晚发展的另一 个原因是，虽然年轻选手可能已经有好的挥棒，直到他大约接近25岁之前身体 并没有完全地成熟与丰满。一个18、19或20岁的球员并不像他24、25岁时那样地强壮与 丰满。而球探被要求能够预测一个男孩当他长大成人的时候会有多强壮。不容易! What about fielding? 那fielding呢? What does a scout look for in evaluating defense? 球探看什麽来为fielding打分数? Evaluating defense is certainly position specific. But a scout looks deeper than a player’s success at a certain position. He examines the hands, the footwork, the mental capacities of the player. Sometimes the scout determines, based on the player’s skills, that the best position for him isn ’t at all the one he’s currently playing. 评估防守能力的方式当然会随着不同位置而改变。但是球探不只观察球员在这某个位置的 成功，他检查手的动作、脚步的移位与心理上的负荷力。有时候球探依据球员的技能所 判定最适合他的守备位置并不总是他正在守的位置。 How do we know what position is best for a player? 我们怎麽知道哪一个位置对一位球员最好? Well, if the player is lefthanded, he’s immediately relegated to the outfield or first base. So, among righthanders, the better skilled he is with the glove the more likely he will be tried as an infielder. 唔，如果他是左撇子，他就马上被送到外野或一垒。所以，对右撇子来说，他的防守愈好 就愈可能试着去担任内野手。 Among the infield positions, shortstop and second base require the most range. Turning a double play also necessitates sure hands and agile footwork around the bag. Third base does not require the same kind of range but rather quickness (in terms of reaction time) and agility must be present. If a player does not have good, soft hands he’ll likely end up in the outfield. 在内野手当中，游击与二垒需要最大的range。制造双杀也需要稳健的双手与在垒包附近 敏捷的移位。三垒手不需要这麽大的range，但是要快一点(以反应时间来说)与表 现出敏捷。如果一个球员没有一双好的、柔软的双手，他比较可能最後会在外野。 The 4th tool, arm strength, also plays a significant role in determining a player’s most appropriate position. An infielder with a strong arm will likely play on the left side of the infield, shortstop or third base. The strongest outfield arm is usually in rightfield. The weakest arms in the infield and outfield will often be second base and leftfield, respectively. 第四项tool，臂力，也在决定一个球员最适当位置中占有重要的角色。 有强健手臂的内野手比较可能在内野的左侧，游击或三垒。外野中手臂最强健的通常会在 右外野。内野与外野最弱的手臂通常分别是在二垒与左外野。 If arm strength is part of fielding, then why is it considered a tool of its own? 如果臂力是fielding的一部份，那为什麽它是被独立出来考虑的tool呢? Well, as hitting and power are each tools of offensive skill, both fielding and arm strength are defensive tools. Grading a player’s fielding incorporates the hands, feet, positioning, reaction to ground balls or fly balls, etc. A player’s arm is graded separately. He may be a good fielder with a poor arm or be a poor fielder with a strong arm. The two tools are distinct. 唔，就像hitting和power都是攻击技能的特殊能力一样，fielding和臂力都是防守上的 tool。给球员的fielding打分数包含了手，脚，站位，对滚地球或飞球的反应...等等。 一个球员的臂力是被分开计分的。他可能是臂力弱但fielding好或者臂力好但fielding弱 。这两个tool是不同的。 A player with a strong arm will be able to throw on a tight line with some zip on it. And it must be accurate. A weaker arm will need to throw with more loft or arc. And whether it’s strong or not, if it’s not accurate it won’t do you any good. 一个有强健手臂的球员可以在传球时轨迹接近直线而发出呼啸而过的声音。而这必须很 精确。一个较差的手臂需要从比较高的位置以及比较大的挥臂弧度传球。而不论是否强健 ，如果传的不精准则不会对球队有任何好处。 Why isn’t speed considered part of defense? 为什麽速度不是防守上必须考虑的一部分呢? It is! It’s also considered part of offense. It’s the only tool that plays a factor both offensively and defensively. 是的!速度也被看成攻击的一部份，这是唯一在攻击和防守上都具有的因素。 On defense, speed impacts the range of a player. Speed is distinct from the range aspect of fielding because a player may not have great speed yet know how to position himself properly. A player with great speed doesn’t necessarily read flyballs correctly and may make several misplays in the field. 在防守上，速度影响一个球员的range。速度与fielding的range方面不同，因为一个球员 也许没有很好的速度但是可能知道如何适当的站位。一个有很好速度的球员不一定能 正确地解读飞球而可能在球场上有许多错误的守备动作。 Offensively, it can be used as a weapon on the basepaths. Or be a hindrance. And don’t necessarily assume a player with speed is an automatic to be successful in stealing bases. Several speedy players in the minors may get caught stealing as often as they are safe. Reading a pitcher, taking a good lead and getting a good jump are each factors to produce a quality base stealer. 在攻击上，速度可以做为用在跑垒线上的武器。速度也可能是一种障碍，拥有速度不代 表就能成功地盗垒。小联盟里一些有速度的跑者盗垒成功和失败的次数一样频繁。解读 投手的动作，在时机上的领先，好的起跑，都是制造有品质盗垒者的要素。 Though there have been several players who have better foot speed than Carlos Beltran, nobody in the history of the game has been more successful in stealing bases (over 89% success rate). He’s a very smart baserunner. Even someone with the speed and athleticism of Deion Sanders stole 75% of his attempts in his baseball-playing days, which is still very successful. But it takes more than just speed to steal bases and Beltran proves that basestealing is a skill beyond simply raw speed. 虽然已有几位球员有着比Carlos Beltran更快的速度，但是历史上没有人在盗垒上比他 成功(成功机率超过89%)。他是很聪明的跑垒者。即使是像Deion Sanders那样有速度与 运动细胞的球员也只在打球的时候有75%的成功率，但这依然是非常成功的。 但要盗垒只有速度是不能成功的，而Beltran证明了盗垒是超越单纯只看速度的技能。 How does a scout grade each of the 5 tools? 球探怎麽为这5项tool计分呢? Scouts use a 20-to-80 scale to grade each tool. 50 is considered major league average with 20 at the lowest and 80 at elite status. Neither extreme is given out very often. Some scouts may use a 2-to-8 scale, which is basically the same, only that the 20-80 scale is used in increments of 5 (50, 55, 60, etc.) rather than increments of 1 (5, 6, etc.). 球探以20到80分的尺度给每一项tool打分数。50分是mlb平均水准，20分是最低水准 而80分则是精英的境界。极端的分数很少出现。有的球探可能会使用2到8分，基本上是 一样的尺度，差别在於20-80尺度的单位变化量是5而不是2-8尺度的1。 For a player to be considered a quality major league prospect, he should be above average in at least two of the tools. A player who is above major league average in only one tool will be considered one-dimensional. A player who is average across the board with no “plus” tool will be deemed mediocre and likely suited for a bench or utility role. If each tool is considered potentially above major league average, he gets that prestigious label of being a “5-tool prospect”. 一个球员要想被视为够格上大联盟的新秀，他应该在至少两项tool上有超过平均水准 以上的表现。一位只在一项特殊能力有超过平均水准的选手会被视为单向度的(不够全面) 。一个在五项tool都是平均水准没有一项有个"+"的球员注定会成为平庸选手。 如果五项tool都高於MLB平均水准，他就能得到被标上"5-tool新秀"的荣誉。 Sample scouting grade for Player X: 一个样本: 球员X各项tool的分数 Hitting: 60 (above average) Power: 40 (below average) Fielding: 55 (average-to-above average) Arm: 50 (average) Speed: 65 (well above average) From these sample grades, I would assume this player is a leadoff hitter, likely playing a middle-infield position or centerfield. 从这个样本的各项分数，我会假设他是首棒打者，守备位置大约在内野中间或中外野。 How can you tell? 你是怎麽看的呢? The first cue follows the old scouting adage: “Defense up the middle; power in the corners.” The lack of power from Player X lessens the chances he will play a corner infield (1st base or 3rd base) or corner outfield (leftfield or rightfield) position. 第一个线索来自古老的球探格言: "防守好的在中间，power好的在角落。" 缺乏power的球员 X 减少了他未来会在内野两边(一、三垒)或外野两边(左、右外野) 的机会。 Secondly, his speed will put him in centerfield unless there is a tremendous defensive outfielder on the team who may push him to leftfield. If he is kept in the infield, his average arm strength is the only tool that might force him to the right side of second base if there is a stronger and better defensive shortstop on the roster. 其次，他的速度会让他在中外野，除非队上有一位守备极佳的中外野手而把他挤到左外 野。如果他被留在内野，他平均水准的臂力是唯一可能让他因为队上有个臂力与防守较 好的游击手，而去守二垒的原因。 Finally, his hitting ability would allow him to hit in the top third of the order. His speed and lack of power seal the deal as a leadoff hitter. If he lacked speed and had power potential, he’d be a key run-producer, likely 3rd or 4th. 最後，他的hitting能力可以让他打前三棒。他的速度与缺乏power保证了他成为首棒打 者。如果他缺乏速度而有power的潜力，他可以成为关键的分数制造者，像第三或第四 棒。 So, which tools are better suited for each position? 所以，哪一个tool对各个位置最好呢? You’d like to know, wouldn’t you? Baseball America has supplied a synopsis of what a scout envisions about the ideal player for each position. He observes the tools of a player and matches it with the profile of a position that is most suitable. Here is how each position profiles, ranking the importance of each tool from greatest to least: 你想知道，对吧? BA(Baseball America)提供球探展望各位置理想球员的诊断。 球探观察球员的tool，和各位置的详细资料作比对，找出最适当的位置。这里是各位置 的资料，依各tool在该位置的重要性自高到低排名。 Catcher Fielding Arm Hitting Power Speed First base Hitting Power Fielding Arm Speed Second base Hitting Fielding Power Speed Arm Third Base Hitting Power Fielding Arm Speed Shortstop Fielding Arm Hitting Speed Power Left field Hitting Power Fielding Arm Speed Center field Fielding Hitting Speed Power Arm Right field Hitting Power Arm Fielding Speed Note that hitting is the most desired tool at each position except the traditionally defensive-oriented positions of catcher, shortstop and centerfield which each have fielding first. In fact, hitting ranks no lower than the third most desired tool at any position. Also note that hitting always precedes power. 注意到hitting在每个位置都是最被需要的tool，除了那些传统上防守导向的位置如 捕手，游击手与中外野手。在这些位置都是以fielding为优先。事实上，hitting在任何 位置的优先顺序都不低於前三名。另外也需注意到hitting的优先顺序总是比power高。 As stated previously, the positions that value power the most are the corner positions. As the game continues to evolve, also observe how the expectations of the second base position has become a much more offensively productive position than traditionally perceived. Players like Jeff Kent, Ray Durham and Bret Boone come to mind. Any power from the catcher, shortstop and centerfield positions are bonus. 如同之前提到的，最重视power的是那些在角落的位置。当比赛持续地演进，也可以看出 跟传统的认知相比，现在对二垒手的期待愈来愈重视攻击上的高度产出。 如Jeff Kent, Ray Durham 与Bret Boone是其中几个例子。任何来自於捕手，游击手， 与中外野手的power都是额外的加分。 The three positions that place a greater value on arm strength are catcher, shortstop and rightfield. And speed is more valued for centerfielders and the middle infield, as expected, yet ranks no higher than third on any list. 三个比较重视臂力的位置是捕手，游击手以及右外野手。 而速度一如预期，对中外野手和中间位置的内野手比较重要，但在每一个位置的重要性都 不会高於前三。 Based on a synthesis of these lists, I suppose we could rank the overall value of tools in this order: hitting, fielding, power, arm, speed. 综合以上的列表，我以为我们可以把这些tool的总体价值排序为: hitting, fielding, power, 臂力，速度。 Okay. Let’s change gears for a moment. My team has an All-Star shortstop. They also have a couple decent shortstop prospects in the minors. And then they went out and drafted yet another shortstop in the first round of the most recent draft! What are they thinking?!? Do they have a clue? 好。让我们换档一下。我的队伍有一个全明星级的游击手。他们在小联盟也有几个不 错的游击新秀。然後他们还在最近的选秀第一轮签下另一个游击手! 他们在想什麽? 这麽做有什麽依据吗? Dear Disgruntled in Draftville; Yes, they do have a clue and they are thinking that they want to acquire the best collection of talent possible. 这位对选秀不满意的先生；他们确实有所依据，尽可能的得到最佳的天分集合体是他们这 样做的设想。 Then why so many shortstops? 为什麽有那麽多游击手呢? I just told you! They want to acquire the best collection of talent possible! Just because a player is a shortstop in the minors does not mean he will play there in the Majors. And just because a player is drafted as a shortstop does not mean he will play there even in the minors, let alone if he ever makes it to the big leagues. Many, many, many major league players that are not shortstops were one day shortstops either in the minors, in college or in high school. 就像我刚刚说的! 他们想要尽可能的得到最佳的天分集合体! 一位在小联盟守游击的选手不表示他在大联盟也守游击。甚至一位在选秀中以游击手的 身份被选上的球员也不意味着他在小联盟也守那个位置，更不用说他能否在大联盟做到 这点。很多很多很多不是游击手的大联盟球员曾在小联盟，大学，或高中担任游击手。 Think of it this way, when you have a high schooler with legitimate hopes of entertaining a professional career, he’s going to be the best athlete on his team. And where do the best athletes play? Shortstop. It does not mean he will remain at shortstop at a more competitive level. For when he gets to the next level (either the minors or college) he’ll be competing against several other guys who were also high school shortstops. And they can’t all continue to play shortstop. The ones who do remain at shortstop in the minors may not even continue to stay there while they advance through the system. 这样想吧，当你手边有一个合理预期能进入职业生涯的高中选手，他一定是队上的最佳 运动员。最佳运动员都在哪里? 游击区。这不表示他在更具竞争力的层级也会是游击手。 因为当他进到下一个层级(不论是小联盟或大学)他会与其他在高中也守游击的家伙竞争。 而他们不能全部继续守游击。甚至能在小联盟担任游击手的人，当他们在小联盟体系晋 升时也不一定能继续留在那里。 It’s possible for a team to draft 5 shortstops among their first 10 selections, only truly anticipating that perhaps 2 of them will continue to play the position a couple seasons later. The others will move to other positions. 一个队伍有可能在他们的前10个选秀机会中签下5名游击手，事实上只期待或许有两位 在几个球季後还在这个位置上。其他人会移到别的守备位置。 Most major league second basemen were minor league shortstops. Shortstops can grow out of their position and move to third base. A great majority of young shortstops are weeded out and moved to the outfield where fielding and arm strength are not as highly valued. Only the best remain. 大部分MLB的二垒手在小联盟都是游击手。游击手可以从无到有地自他们的守位移到三垒 。很大一部分年轻的游击手被淘汰而移到外野，那里守备与臂力并没有那麽被重视，只有 最好的人才会留在游击。 Anyway, in general, shortstops are good athletes with quality tools. Why not try to accumulate as many good athletes with quality tools at positions all over the field? 无论如何，一般来说游击手是有杰出特殊能力的好运动员。为什麽不尽量多累积有杰出 特殊能力，又能守大部分位置的好运动员呢? We’ve only been talking about position players the whole time. What about pitchers? 我们一直在谈各守位的选手。那投手呢? Pitchers are judged primarily on his pitches, command and composure (or makeup). We’ll first discuss the pitches he throws. The fastball is not always the best pitch but it’s usually the place to start. 投手主要依据他的球种，command与composure(或makeup)来评判。我们会先讨论他丢的 球种。速球不一定总是最好的球种但通常是由速球开始看。 Why start with the fastball? 为什麽要先从速球开始看? First of all, almost every pitcher has one. Secondly, the effectiveness of his other pitches will draw off his fastball. Thirdly, velocity is easy to measure. Let’s examine a basic scouting scale to measure velocity. 首先，几乎所有投手都有一颗速球。其次，他其他球种的有效性是由他的速球决定的。 最後，速度容易测量。让我们检视一下考虑速度的基本计分表。 MPH Grade 98+ 80 93-97 70 90-92 60 88-89 50 85-87 40 83-84 30 82 20 What velocity doesn’t tell us about the fastball is the movement. That’s something a scout also considers in grading the pitch. 关於速球，速度没有告诉我们的是它的尾劲。那是一个球探在为球种打分数时也要考虑的 Another reason to start with the fastball is because of all the pitches a pitcher may throw, it’s more due to natural ability than learned skill. Pitchers can learn to throw a curveball, slider or changeup. Velocity can not be taught. There are ways to improve it, but only so slightly. Usually, either a pitcher has a lightning bolt in his arm or he doesn’t. 另一个从速球开始的理由是，在一个投手所有可能投的球种中，速球的品质主要来自先天 的能力多於後天的学习。投手可以学习怎麽投曲球，滑球或变速球。速度是不能教的。 有方法去增加速度，但能进步的幅度有限。通常，一个投手的手臂要麽潜藏着释放闪电 的能力，要麽就没有。 Consider this: would you rather have a pitcher with one above-average pitch or two above-average pitches? 考虑一下这点:你会比较想要一个有一颗高於平均球种的投手还是有两颗高於平均球种 的投手? I’d rather have a pitcher with two above-average pitches. Duh! 我当然想要有两颗的投手。废话! Exactly. A pitcher with an above-average fastball can learn to improve his average curveball. A pitcher with an above-average curveball is pretty much stuck with God-given average velocity. It’s easier for a hard thrower to develop better secondary pitches. A pitcher with an ordinary fastball has to find more resourceful ways to be successful. 确实如此。有一个高於平均水准的速球可以学着改进他平均水准的曲球。有一颗高於平均 水准曲球的投手却常无法摆脱上帝给的普通球速。球速快的人比较容易发展第二球种。 一个球速普通的投手必须找其他方法以求得成功。 What about a guy like Greg Maddux? He has an average fastball. 像Greg Maddux这样的人呢? 他有一个平均水准的速球。 True. Greg Maddux’s fastball has always been ordinary. But Maddux had a plus curveball and a plus-plus changeup with outstanding command and tremendous makeup. He had to excel in several other ways to be as successful as he was without an above-average fastball. 是的。Greg Maddux的速球总是平均水准。但他有一个"+"的曲球，一颗"++"的变速球， 杰出的控制力与极大的makeup。没有一颗高於平均水准的速球，他必需在几项其他方面表 现杰出才能如此成功。 What is this “plus” and “plus-plus” you’ve been speaking of? 你说的"+"和"++"是什麽意思? It’s pretty much just scouting jargon. “Plus” is above-average (a 60 on the scale) and “plus-plus” is well above-average (a 70 on the scouting scale). An 80 pretty much speaks for itself. 这比较算是球探的行话。"+"就是高於平均(球探计分表上是60分)而"++"是高於平均很多 (球探计分表上是70分)。至於80分本身就可以说明有多极品了。 So what does it take for a scout to deem a pitcher as a potential major league ace? 所以什麽让球探判断一个投手具有MLB王牌的潜力? Before we get to that, we need to define a standard of what it takes to be an ace. Does each team have an ace? Are there 30 different standards for being an ace? Does being the ace of the Yankees or Cubs staff carry the same weight as being the ace of the Tigers or Reds? Some teams’ third starter would be the ace elsewhere. So we can’t use a team-by-team standard to define a pitcher as being a #1, #2 or #3, etc. We have to develop a scale that puts every pitcher from all 30 teams on the same level. 在我们进入问题核心之前，必须先定义成为王牌投手的标准。是不是每个队伍都有一个 王牌呢? 身为在洋基或小熊队上的王牌和身为老虎或红人队上的王牌有同样份量吗? 有些队伍的第三号先发可能在别的队伍是王牌。所以我们不能以各队的标准来定义 一个投手是一号、二号、还是三号先发等等。我们必须发展出一种评判方式让30支队伍 的每一位投手都在相同的基准线上。 The scouting community has done that. It has formed a reasonable standard of expectation for what it takes to compile a championship-caliber pitching staff. The following chart is an example of what kind of expectations are placed on a pitcher based on these attributes: 球探圈已经把这件事做好了。已有一个如何打造冠军队伍的投手团队合理的预期标准。 下表是如何由这些特质来预期投手的位置: #1 Starter: Two plus pitches, average third pitch, plus-plus command, plus makeup #2 Starter: Two plus pitches, average third pitch, average command, average makeup #3 Starter: One plus pitch, two average pitches, average command, average makeup #4 & #5 starters: Average velocity, consistent breaking ball, decent changeup, command of two of the pitches Closer: One dominant pitch, second plus pitch, plus command, plus-plus makeup Note that the 1st and 2nd starters can throw the same stuff. The difference is found in the command and makeup. A pitcher’s makeup would include his character, focus, intensity, etc. The 3rd starter is the same as the 2nd starter except one of the plus pitches becomes average. Average would be the best word to describe the overall skill of the typical 4th and 5th starters on a major league staff. 注意一、二号先发可以有相同的stuff。不同处在於command与makeup。投手的所谓makeup 包含他的个性，专注度，积极程度(intensity)等等。第三号先发与第二号相同除了其中 一颗球种从高於平均变成平均水准。对第四和第五号先发而言，整体技能上的平均水准 是介绍他们的最好字眼。 关於command的意义: MLB板 文章代码(AID): #185X2pou 17400 m 3 4/29 leddy □ [翻译] Forgive & Forget: In command intensity :似乎是投手面对打者时的积极程度 以80%的intensity投球和以100%的intensity投球是不同的，一位後援投手从救火队转入 先发时可能就必须调整他的intensity。Kevin Brown投球时的intensity被视为非常的高。 What about relief pitchers other than the closer role? Why are they not mentioned? 那除了终结者之外的後援投手(RP)呢?为什麽没提到他们? Well, note that three average-or-better pitches are required for a starting pitcher. A starting pitcher with only two average-or-better pitches is called a relief pitcher. I would guess that about 90% of all major league relief pitchers were minor league starters. Most pitchers who have good enough stuff to be a true major league hopeful will be kept in the starting role for as long as possible. If the pitcher fails to develop a decent third pitch by the time he gets to the Bigs, that’s often when he gets bumped to the bullpen. 唔，注意到有三种高於或等於平均水准球路是先发投手的条件。只有两颗高於或等於平均 水准球路的先发投手就叫RP。我猜大约90%大联盟的RP在小联盟都是先发投手。大部分 有足够stuff在大联盟先发的投手都会尽可能地在先发角色上待的久一点。如果投手无法 在登上MLB时发展出不错的第三球路，他通常会被挤到牛棚。 A championship-caliber closer is a reliever with two above-average pitches. If he had a third pitch that was at least average, he’d likely be a starter. While other relievers may also have two quality pitches, the ones with the plus-plus makeup are those who will better handle the pressures of the closer role. Ordinary middle relievers should throw two pitches that are at least average. 一个顶级的终结者是有两颗高於平均水准球种的RP。如果他有第三颗至少是平均 水准的球种，他可能就是一位先发投手。同时其他的RP也可能有两种高品质的球种， 一个有"++"级makeup的RP比较能处理担任终结者角色所受的压力。普通的中等RP应该要能 丢至少两种平均水准的球路。 Great! Thanks for all the info! Now I’m going to go out and get myself a job as a scout! 好极了! 谢谢你的知识! 现在我想出去为自己找个球探工作了! Best wishes to you! You have plus ambition. But perhaps your technique is still only a 30s. 祝你一路好走! 你的野心是"+"，但是你的技术大概只有30分 ^_< -- 怪不得你喜欢kururu~人就是这样羡慕人家身上自己没有的东西ㄆㄆ --

※ 发信站: 批踢踢实业坊(ptt.cc) ◆ From: 140.113.139.220 --

※ 发信站: 批踢踢实业坊(ptt.cc) ◆ From: 140.113.139.220 ※ 编辑: eaquson 来自: 140.113.139.220 (05/10 15:12) ※ 编辑: eaquson 来自: 140.113.139.220 (05/10 15:55) ※ 编辑: eaquson 来自: 140.113.139.220 (05/10 16:02)