出处 http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/20046509/ By Bob Cook MSNBC contributor Updated: 2:30 a.m. ET Aug. 6, 2007 Looking at next wave of 300-game winners 寻找下一波三百胜投手 Oswalt, Buehrle top our list, but they'll have to stay healthy Oswalt，Buehrle 是最有可能的人选，不过他们得保持健康才行 With his 300th win on Sunday against the Cubs, Mets pitcher Tom Glavine becomes the ninth pitcher in the last 25 years to reach that milestone. He also ends an unprecedented era in 300-windom. This golden age of 300-game winners beats the era of 1888-1913, when eight pitchers reached that milestone, and when Gaylord Perry started his career, thus allowing him to grandfather in his spitball so he could kick off the current run of 300-game winners in 1982. 大苹果的葛叔叔在星期天对上小熊拿到生涯第300胜，这让他成为这25年来第九位达 到这个里程碑的投手，同时他也终结了这段空前未见的黄金年代。这一代的投手超越了 1888-1913那一代的人，那个年代总共有八位投手达成生涯300胜的里程碑。这个黄金年代 是从Gaylord Perry开始的，他和他的口水球在1982年开启了这一段盛世。 Glavine is the 23rd pitcher to reach 300, and there’s not much hope of a 24th coming anytime soon, unless Randy Johnson (284 wins) makes a remarkable comeback from back surgery next season at age 44, or Mike Mussina (244 wins) at age 38 overcomes his recent struggles and finds a way to kick in a late-late-career, Phil Niekro-style surge. Any other pitcher with more than 200 wins is in his 40s or is Pedro Martinez, whose current arm problems make him no sure shot to get to 300, even with 206 wins at the relatively tender age of 35. 葛叔叔是史上第23位达到300胜的投手，而短期之内我们应该不会看到第24位的出现， 除非大单位(284胜)能够在明年以44岁的高龄从背部手术中奇蹟般地恢复，或者是老穆 (244胜)会在过了38岁之後突然爆发，像Phil Niekro一样，(注：生涯318胜，38岁後 156胜，48岁退休)其他任何有200胜的投手要不是已经超过40岁就是Pedro Martinez， 而伟大的Pedro以35岁，生涯206胜却很可能因为破碎的手臂而无法达到300胜。 But even though it might be a while before anyone else reaches 300, several pitchers right now are capable of making it in another, say, 15 or so years. 尽管要好一段时间我们才会看到任何投手向300胜攻顶，不过现在有一些人选在大概 15年以後的确有可能达成。 Winning 300 games is not about greatness (as Don Sutton’s detractors will tell you), but about being consistently good, and consistently healthy. As Woody Allen might put it, 95 percent of having a run at 300 wins is showing up. You have to start young, and pitch when you're old. 300场胜投并不一定就是伟大的代名词，(比如说Don Sutton，注：生涯324胜)但代表了 稳定并且健康。伍迪艾伦可能会这样说，95%追寻300胜的机会在於你每天都上工。 你得要很年经就开始，并且一直持续到你老了。 Reaching 40 is almost a requirement for a 300-game winner. Since 1915, around the time pitchers stopped making about 50 or so starts a year, the only players to reach 300 before their 40th birthday were Grover Cleveland Alexander (37), Steve Carlton (38), Greg Maddux (38) and Eddie Plank (39). 能够在场上投到超过40岁是必要条件，自从1915年以来，(在这之前投手可以一直投到50 岁左右)能够在40岁之前达到300胜的只有Grover Cleveland Alexander (37)， Steve Carlton (38)，Greg Maddux (38)，和Eddie Plank (39)。 Today’s five-starter, no-complete-game strategy might seem on the surface to limit pitchers, who aren’t racking up 25-win seasons like they used to. But then again, that same strategy also might lessen the chance some of the pitchers named below will blow themselves out before age 40, as happened to great pitchers, and sub-300-game-winners, such as Bob Gibson and Jim Palmer. If you have arm problems, it’s tough to make it to 300: ask Tommy John (288 wins), sitting outside the Hall of Fame and more famous for being a surgery. 现今的五人轮值，以及通常不让先发投手独力完成一场比赛的策略，也许限制了投手累积 更多胜投，不过同时也降低了他们在40岁以前手臂爆炸的风险，比如像一些差点300胜的 投手，Bob Gibson(251)，Jim Palmer(268)等。如果你的手臂爆炸了，300胜就不太可能， 可以去问问Tommy John(288)，他进不了名人堂，而且大家都以为这只是一种手术而已。 In honor of today’s starting rotation, here are the five pitchers with the best chances of making 300 wins. Actually, six — I’ll throw in a spot starter because in calculating who had the best chance, one name came up that made me rub my eyes in disbelief. Maybe he’ll be remembered as the Don Sutton of his generation. 接下来我们要看看五个有可能达到300胜的投手，事实上是六个，其中有一个让我不敢 相信，也许他会成为他的年代的Don Sutton。 1. ROY OSWALT, Houston Age: 29 (30 as of Aug. 29) Age at first win: 23 生涯首胜：23岁 Career record (as of July 30): 108-53 生涯成绩：108-53 Average wins per full season (through 2006): 16.3 平均每年胜投：16.3 Estimated season he will reach 300: 2018 预计达到300胜：2018年 Estimated age at win No. 300: 41 预计达到300胜时41岁 Injury history: On the disabled list in 2003 with a groin injury. But no arm problems 伤痛史：2003年鼠蹊部受伤，但没有手臂受伤纪录。 Case for reaching 300: Unrelenting consistency and greatness. He has two 20-win seasons in an era where it’s tough to get one. (And with 19 wins in 2002, he nearly has three such seasons.) 优点：稳定并优秀。有两季拿到20胜，一季19胜。 Case against reaching 300: The current state of the Astros, which is acting as an anchor in his numbers (though most pitchers would kill to have a career-high ERA of 3.63, Oswalt’s present predicament). Houston finished first or second in its division in Oswalt’s first six seasons, but won’t in this one. Being stuck on a losing team for a while can be a drag on 300, and the difference between Hall of Fame induction and Bert Blyleven-land (287 wins). 缺点：以现在太空人的状况来说，前景堪虑。在Oswalt的前六个球季，太空人还能打进 分区前二，但现在已经不复从前了。待在一个不能赢球的球队造成的差别可能是名人堂与 Bert Blyleven-land(287-250，3.31)之间这麽大。 2. MARK BUEHRLE, Chicago White Sox Age: 28 Age at first win: 21 生涯首胜：21岁 Career record (as of July 30): 105-72 生涯成绩：105-72 Average wins per full season (through 2006): 15.5 平均每年胜投：15.5 Estimated season he will reach 300: 2019 预计达到300胜：2019年 Estimated age at win No. 300: 40 预计达到300胜时40岁 Injury history: Practically nil. 伤痛史：基本上，没有。 Case for reaching 300: Buehrle has never pitched fewer than 204 innings in a season, nor more than 245, and presumably his one big risk of hurting himself was taken care of when the White Sox brass banned him from sliding on the tarp during rain delays. 优点：Buehrle 从来没有在一季当中投超过245局，或少於204局，而他最有可能受伤的 情况是当下雨延赛时Buehrle会在球场防水布上滑来滑去(白袜球团已经禁止他再这样做) Case against reaching 300: Current state of the White Sox, who like their 2005 World Series foe, Houston, have seen the bottom drop out in a hurry. But individually, Buehrle, who relies on finesse more than power, can’t go through many more seasons like last year, when his breaking pitches didn’t break, and he ended up a career-worst 12-13 with a 4.99 ERA. 缺点：白袜最近的战绩也不好，跟太空人差不多，而Buehrle他自己也必须避免像上个 球季的情形再度发生，他去年的变化球控球不佳，导致生涯最差的12-13，4.99 ERA。 3. C.C. SABATHIA, Cleveland Age: 27 Age at first win: 20 生涯首胜：20岁 Career record (as of July 30): 94-62 生涯成绩：94-62 Average wins per full season (through 2006): 13.5 平均每年胜投：13.5 Estimated season he will reach 300: 2021 预计达到300胜：2021年 Estimated age at win No. 300: 41 预计达到300胜时41岁 Injury history: Muscle pulls, which put him on the disabled list in 2006. 伤痛史：2006年时因为肌肉拉伤进伤兵名单。 Case for reaching 300: Sabathia, tied for the AL league in wins at 13, is picking up his game to a pace that might allow him to reach the magic milestone sooner than his previous seasons’ play might predict. After five so-so years, he is again fulfilling the promise he showed while going 17-5 as a rookie in 2001. That could make him the first black pitcher ever to reach 300 — Ferguson Jenkins is first at 284, though among African-Americans — not African-Canadians — Bob Gibson is first at 251. 优点：本季来到13胜的Sabathia正在加紧赶路，以这个速度也许可以比原先预计的更早 达到300胜，经过了五个不怎麽样的球季，他终於再次展现出他在菜鸟球季(17-5，2001年) 给予大家高度期望的优异资质。如果他成功达到300胜，将会是史上第一位黑人选手达到 这个里程碑。在此之前只有Ferguson Jenkins(284)，而他是个非裔加人，Bob Gibson( 251)则是非裔美人胜投数最多。 Case against reaching 300: Those five so-so years. His career ERA is 3.91, and has been higher than 4.00 in four out of his first six seasons, including his rookie year. Sabathia needs more 17-5s and fewer 11-10s, or else he’ll be struggling like Mussina to reach 300 by the time he is 38. 缺点：那不怎麽样的五个球季，他的ERA是3.91，而在他的前六个球季中有四个球季超过 4.00，包括他菜鸟的那一年。Sabathia需要更多的17-5，更少的11-10，不然当他38岁的 时候会发现他碰上跟老穆一样的困境。 4. JOHAN SANTANA, Minnesota Age: 28 Age at first win: 21 生涯首胜：21岁 Career record (as of July 30): 89-39 生涯成绩：89-39 Average wins per full season (through 2006): 16.8 每年平均胜投：16.8 Estimated season he will reach 300: 2020 预计达到300胜：2020年 Estimated age at win No. 300: 41 预计达到300胜时41岁 Injury history: Had surgery before 2004 season to remove bone chips in his left (throwing) elbow. But no sign of any long-term arm damage, so say two Cy Young Awards (2004 and 2006). 伤痛史：2004年手术从左手手肘取出碎骨，不过看起来没有长期伤害的疑虑。 Case for reaching 300: Santana is the most consistently dominant pitcher in the major leagues today, especially once the All-Star break is over. He’s not undefeated from July to September for his career — it just seems like it. Might get a chance to get even more wins when good, cash-rich team signs him after his Minnesota contract expires at the end of next season. 优点：山大王是现今大联盟最稳定也是最具掌控力的投手，尤其是在下半球季。他生涯 从来不曾在七到九月输球过，明年球季结束後有可能到大市场球队，有机会拿到更多 胜投(注：美东的邪恶球队请准备大量现金)。 Case against reaching 300: Santana got a late start toward 300 because he spent his first four major-league seasons mostly in the bullpen — he’s in only his fourth season as a full-time starter. But with those Cy Youngs in his pocket, Santana could get to, say, 250 wins and still make the Hall of Fame. Dennis Martinez (245) is the current record holder for wins by a Latin-born pitcher. 缺点：山大王生涯前四个球季待在牛棚，因此他的起步有点晚，今年才是他的第四个完整 球季而已。不过他家里的那些赛扬奖座有可能让他以250胜投进入名人堂，史上最多胜的 拉丁球员是Dennis Martinez(245)。 5. CARLOS ZAMBRANO, Chicago Cubs Age: 26 Age at first win: 20 生涯首胜：20岁 Career record (as of July 30): 78-49 生涯成绩：78-49 Average wins per full season (through 2006): 15.2 平均每年胜投：15.2 Estimated season he will reach 300: 2022 预计达成300胜：2022年 Estimated age at No. 300: 41 预计达成300胜时41岁 Injury history: Some strain in his right (throwing) elbow, which got the Cubs to restrict Zambrano’s Internet use after he claimed the repetitive stress of e-mailing his brother caused his problems in 2005. If you want to call whatever you do at the computer “e-mailing your brother” — hey, to each his own euphemism. 伤痛史：2005年时冉伯牛先生宣称和他兄弟反覆的电子邮件来往导致了他的右手手肘拉伤 ，小熊队只好限制他使用网际网路的时间。(注：作者似乎认为冉伯牛先生比较可能的是 浏览18禁网站) Case for reaching 300: While all the attention was focused on whether the constantly on-the-shelf Kerry Wood or Mark Prior would ever come back, Zambrano emerged as the Cubs’ most consistent starter and staff ace. He might have won the Cy Young Award last year if his last-place team hadn’t been so lousy. His career ERA of 3.31 — it’s ranged between 2.75 and 3.66 — shows he’s not counting on his teammates to hit him out of his jams. Then again, Zambrano went 3-for-4 the other day against Cincinnati and is one of the best hitting pitchers in baseball, so he’s more than capable of hitting himself out of his own jams. 优点：尽管大家都担心当年面包师傅造成的惨剧会不会再现，(Kerry Wood，Mark Prior) 冉伯年先生的确是现在小熊队最稳定的Ace。如果小熊不是这麽不济事的话，他去年就 应该拿到赛扬奖了，他的生涯ERA 3.31(最低2.75最高3.66)表示了他不是靠着队友帮他 打下胜投的。事实上，冉伯牛先生是全大联盟打击最好的投手，他靠着自己来打下胜投。 Case against reaching 300: He’s a Cub. Something tragic will happen the moment all looks sunny, right? Then again, with his contract situation, he could be a Met or something else starting next year. 缺点：小熊队。任何坏事都可能在一切看来光明无比的时候发生在这支球队身上。而明 年，冉伯牛先生可能会到大苹果或其他地方去。 6. JON GARLAND, Chicago White Sox Age: 27 Age at first win: 20 生涯首胜：20岁 Career record (as of July 30): 90-75 生涯成绩：90-75 Average wins per full season (through 2006): 14.4 平均每年胜投：14.4 Estimated season he will reach 300: 2020 预计达成300胜：2020年 Estimated age at No. 300: 40 预计达成300胜时：40岁 Injury history: Nil. 伤痛史：没有。 Case for reaching 300: Jon Garland, a 300-game winner? Jon Garland, a one-time All-Star, a 300-game winner? Yes, it can happen. He has had two 18-win seasons in a row, and he conceivably could have a third if the White Sox’s terrible bullpen wasn’t so intent on giving up games. Garland’s career ERA is a robust 4.41, but it’s been going down after a few rough early years. Garland could be the slow-and-steady 15-gamewinner who reaches 300, the Craig Biggio of pitching. 优点：Jon Garland，300胜投手？Jon Garland，入选过一次全明星，可能达成300胜？ 是的，有可能，他已经连续两年达到18胜，而如果今年白袜的牛棚能够像样一点的话 可能会有连续第三年。Jon Garland 生涯ERA是有点高的4.41，不过看起来正在逐渐降 低。他可能会达到300胜，但慢一点，以每年15胜的速率，就像是投手版的Craig Biggio。 Case against reaching 300: That career ERA might be dropping, but he still has recorded only one sub-4.00 ERA season in five full seasons as a starter. Unlike the other starters on this list, Garland seems like a career No. 2 or so guy, not an ace. 缺点：也许他的ERA在降低，不过在他生涯的五个完整球季之中，只有一个球季低於4， 跟前面的几位比起来，Jon Garland比较像是个第二号先发，而不是个Ace。 But then again, wasn’t Tom Glavine usually overshadowed by Greg Maddux? You don’t have to be great to win 300 games. Just good enough, for long enough. 不过，葛叔叔不是也一直都被疯狗老麦比下去吗？你不需要很伟大来赢得300胜，你只 需要投得够好，投得够久。 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 感想，跟火箭人，疯狗老麦这些人比起来，现在的这些投手好像都是小学生一样。 --

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