: 推 waitla:Penny上下半季也完全不是同一个等级的选手阿 XD~ 06/30 12:48 : → shancko:推Penny上下季完全不同 XD 06/30 12:53 : 推 HXZ:XD 06/30 12:56 : 推 CGary:XD,去年1st 10-2,今年2nd 不知道会不会跟去年有拼唷?:p 06/30 13:01 看到这篇推文,想起来THT这篇对FB玩家的忠告 -- http://tinyurl.com/3b9bnh -- The “Luck” Stats Posted by David Gassko at 4:14pm 一切都是运气，吓不了我的～～ A pitcher’s performance in any given season is something like 40% skill and 60% luck. That statement may sound extreme, but it’s the truth. So you can imagine just how much luck plays into a pitcher’s performance when we’re only halfway through the year, and just how much that might impact your fantasy team. 一个投手在任何特定球季的成绩大概都包含了百分之四十的技能和百分之六十的运气。 这个论述可能听起来有点偏激，但这是事实。所以你可以想像有多少好运投进了一个投 手的半季成绩里，而其中又有多少可能动摇你的梦幻队伍。 Luckily, The Hardball Times tracks a few very important “luck” statistics for pitchers, and we’re going to take a look today at which hurlers may be due for a downturn in their performance. 幸运的是，关於投手，THT有在追踪一些非常重要的好运统计，今天我们将要看看哪些投手 可能因此在往後产生成绩的衰退。 The first of these numbers is how many home runs a pitcher allows per outfield fly ball. My research in The Hardball Times Annual 2007 indicates that pitchers do have some control over HR/F, but not much. Most end up tightly clustered around an average of about 11%. 第一个数字是一个投手制造的飞球中有多少成为全垒打。 在The Hardball Times Annual 2007中，我的研究指出投手可以稍微控制HR/F，但不多。 大部分HR/F的比率都围绕着大约11％的平均值紧紧地聚在一起。 This early in the season, however, those numbers vary quite a bit. Let’s look at the five pitchers with the lowest HR/F in the major leagues: 然而，在今年此时这些数字却偏离了(平均值)相当多. Name HR/F Jake Peavy 1.2% Brad Penny 2.4% Chris Young 3.0% Kelvim Escobar 4.9% Tim Hudson 5.5% You can tell that these numbers are unsustainable. PETCO Field does prevent fly balls from becoming home runs at a higher than average rate, but certainly it is not so extreme as to give hope that Peavy and Young will continue to avoid the gopher ball as they have. 你可以说这些数字无法维持下去。PETCO Field(教士主场)的确高於平均地妨碍了一些 飞球成为全垒打，但显然这不是这麽极端到可以希望PV＆CY能够继续地避免掉他们本来 就该被打的全垒打。 Because home runs are so damaging, these are all guys who should expect to see large bumps in their ERAs (except, perhaps, for Hudson). If you can convince another owner that they will continue to pitch as well as they have, I suggest you sell now. 因为全垒打是多麽地有害，所以全部玩家都应该预计到这些投手的ERA将会有巨大的冲击 （或许哈神是例外）。 假如你能够说服其他玩家相信这些投手仍然会投的跟现在一样出 色，我建议你现在卖出。 Another “luck” stat for pitchers is line drive rate. My article in the THT Annual found no year-to-year correlation in line drive percentage from one year to the next, which means that all pitchers allow around the same number of liners. What I did find, however, was that line drives were the worst type of batted ball to allow, as they drop for hits three-quarters of the time. 另一个关於投手的好运统计是平飞比例(LD%)。在THT Annual中，我的文章发现前一个年 度的LD%与下一个年度的LD%不存在年际的相关性，这表示所有投手都容许大致相同数量的 平飞球。然而，就我发现的，平飞球是投手被击出去的球中最糟糕的一种型态，其中四分 之三都会落在地上形成安打。 Who can we expect to allow a larger number of hits the rest of the way? Let’ s have a look at the pitchers who have allowed the fewest number of line drives per batted ball: 我们能期待哪个投手可以被打大量的安打而游刃有余? 让我们看看哪些投手提供了最低的 LD%： Name LD% Paul Maholm 13.3% Chad Durbin 13.9% Joe Kennedy 14.2% Fausto Carmona 14.2% Daniel Cabrera 14.2% In case you were thinking that my findings couldn’t be right, and that better pitchers generally allow fewer line drives, this list of leaders should show you that isn’t really the case. 假使你认为我的发现不正确，而且认为较好的投手通常被打较少的平飞球。这份领先者名 单应该可以告诉你，你错了。 Maholm, Carmona, and Kennedy have actually had some bad luck in other places to make up for the good karma they have received with line drives. But Durbin and Kennedy are due for a steep fall back to earth, and you should let go of them before that happens. 马洪、小王二世和甘乃迪显然在别的地方产生坏运而中和了LD％低的好运。但杜宾和甘 乃迪应该会一个犁田暴跌回地球，你应该在犁田发生前脱手。 The third statistic we’re going to look at is left-on-base percentage. Unlike LD%, LOB% is far from being all about luck. Better pitchers generally leave a higher proportion of hitters on-base because it is harder to string together a series of hits or walks against them. (A couple good articles on LOB% can be found here and here.) 我们即将介绍的第三个统计量是残垒率。不像LD%，LOB%不完全受运气所影响。好的投手 通常会有较高的LOB%，因为打者们在面对好投手时较难将安打或保送串连在一起。(这里 可以发现一堆关於LOB%的好文章） Nonetheless, LOB% is also a luck-intensive statistic, and it can pinpoint pitchers whose ERAs are about to soar. Let’s look at the leaders. 但是LOB%仍然还是一个运气成分重的统计量，而且它能精确地指出哪个投手即将拥有高涨 的ERA。来看看领先者吧。 Name LOB% John Maine 83.8% Rich Hill 83.3% Johan Santana 82.1% Dan Haren 81.8% Brad Penny 81.2% Brad Penny makes a second appearance in this article, which means that if you own him, you need to be selling now. Seriously, don’t even read this to the end, just go. 戴佩妮已经在这篇文章出现第二次了，这意味着假如你拥有她，你最好现在就把她卖掉。 我说真的，甚至不需要把文章读完，快去阿。 As you can see, we do have a pretty good list of pitchers here, but all of them are due to stumble somewhat, Maine and Haren (and Penny) especially. 就像你看到的，在这里我们有一份非常好的投手名单，但他们全部都显的有些踉跄。 特别是姜面＆哈轮（当然，不要忘了戴佩妮） Evaluating pitchers is a complex art, and sometimes all the luck that plays into their numbers makes it darn near impossible. But by looking more closely at their individual statistics, we can get an idea of which pitchers are playing in over their heads. 对投手评价是一门复杂的艺术，有时全部的运气会一股跑进投手的数据而使得评价投手这 件事"彼娘之"接近不可能。但是藉着更仔细地检视投手们独特的统计资料，我们可以知道 哪个投手即将吃下泄药。 -- 打完才发现好像PO到FB比较适合～～科科 --

※ 发信站: 批踢踢实业坊(ptt.cc) ◆ From: 125.232.96.139 ※ 编辑: tulas 来自: 125.232.96.139 (06/30 18:12) ※ burdette:转录至看板 FBaseball 07/01 01:25 ※ Debugger:转录至看板 Sabermetrics 07/02 14:22 ※ UKG:转录至看板 Cubs 07/05 02:02