蛮有趣的文章，试翻一下 有的地方不太好翻，欢迎指正 http://www.nysun.com/article/54545?page_no=1 The New York Sun The Shrewd Craft of Building Depth 打造球队深度的精明手腕 By WILL CARROLL May 16, 2007 They play a game in the Boston Red Sox front office each off-season. A giant magnetic whiteboard is arranged with hundreds of small tiles. Each tile has the name of a player on it, and each tile's slot on the board gives that player's position and his location in the organization - Boston, Pawtucket, or Fort Myers. It is more than a depth chart, it is a list of assets as real as the balance sheet or the Green Monster outside. 每次球季结束後，他们都在波士顿红袜队的办公室玩一场游戏。一个巨大的白板上磁吸着 上百个小砖。每个小砖上面写了一名球员的名字。小砖在白板上的位置代表该球员在组织 中的的地位与方位--在Boston, Pawtucket, 还是Fort Myers。这不只是一个球员配置图， 这是和资产负债表或办公室外头的绿色怪物一样真实的财产清单。 In this game, one of the team's operations staff turns away from the board for a moment, and another surreptitiously takes a tile or two off the board. The first staffer then turns around and adjusts the chart to fill in for missing tiles. If Manny Ramirez pulls a hamstring, they've played the game enough times to know that Wily Mo Pena takes over in left, that Kevin Youkilis gets slotted in as the emergency left fielder, and that prospect David Murphy is only a phone call away and posting an OBP over .400 down on the farm. If it's Curt Schilling bleeding from the ankle, the Red Sox quickly shift Devern Hansack up from Pawtucket, or later in the season, they know they will have Jon Lester available. 在这场游戏中，一名红袜职员转身背向白板一会儿，另一名偷偷把一两个小砖从白板上拿 走。第一名职员转回身来，调整图表，以补上缺少的小砖。如果Manny Ramirez腿部拉伤 ，则他们因为玩过太多次游戏，就知道要用Wily Mo Pena补上、用Kevin Youkilis当应急 的左外野手，而且David Murphy在小联盟中打出上垒率高於.400的成绩，只要一通电话就 可以叫来。如果Curt Schilling脚踝流血，红袜就会很快将Devern Hansack从Pawtucket 升上来，不然也可以等晚一点，他们知道Jon Lester就要复出了。 I was told this story of the whiteboard at the 2005 Winter Meetings by a Red Sox staffer with a sly grin. I'm still not sure if they actually play this game, but every team has its version of the whiteboard, and every team at least considers what happens when - not if - injuries hit. The reason that it's believable with Boston is that they never seem to be caught unprepared. At any position on the diamond, in the rotation or the bullpen, the Sox have not just one option, but a range of possibilities that cascade out - shifting a player here, another player there, or start the web of phone calls from the front office to other teams when a trade is needed. 我得知这个白板的故事，是在2005冬季会议，一名红袜职员带着狡诈的微笑告诉我的。我 还是不确定他们有没有真的这样做，不过每个球队都有各自版本的白板游戏。至少，每个 球队都会在伤兵问题真的（而非假如）出现时苦思解决之道。说红袜队会玩沙盘推演是可 信的，因为他们从不让人觉得他们对意外措手不及。不管是场上的哪一个位置，不论先发 轮值或牛棚，红袜不会只有一个选项，而是一连串的可能方案--将球员这样调换、那样调 换，或由经理群展开电话网络，与他队洽谈必要的交易事宜。 In contrast, Brian Cashman and the Yankees have a whiteboard or something similar somewhere in their offices, but when Cashman looks at it, he must only see more problems. The fish-eyed stare that he often gives to a particularly obtuse question must return to his face when he looks at his organization's depth chart. When they had an injury in the outfield, an organizational filler like Kevin Thompson was their best option. Before turning to Phil Hughes, the Yankees turned to a Double-A starter and then a lesser prospect first; $200 million buys many things, but it doesn't always buy you depth. In fact, money doesn't even seem relevant to the process. Brian Cashman与洋基队也有白板或类似的东西在办公室中；不过相反地，当Cashman看着 那玩意，他一定只看得到更多问题。当他看着球队的球员配置图，他那种常常用来对付笨 问题的鱼眼瞪人的表情一定又回到他脸上。当他们外野出现一名伤兵，如Kevin Thompson 一般滥竽充数的家伙已经是最好的选择。在找上Phil Hughes之前，洋基找的是2A先发投 手。两亿美金或许可以买到很多东西，但不总是买得到深度。事实上，钱似乎与这无关。 Instead, it's a matter both of planning and understanding a couple of simple concepts that seem to get most teams into this bind. While the Yankees have been stocking up on superstar-level talent, they've struggled to fill out a roster - no one wants to be stuck behind a superstar. The ragtag bunch of players that are known as journeymen or "Quad A" players usually don't come to the Yankees as minor league free agents, both because the team has neglected their value and because when you've got Derek Jeter, how much hope can a guy like Andy Cannizaro have when he's 28 and still stuck in Triple-A? Minor league veterans tend to notice that sort of thing. 相反地，这关乎了解几个简单概念，并照此去规划。当洋基投资在全明星等级的好手身上 时，他们会很难拥有深度；因为没人想跟超级明星卡位。那些棒球浪人在成为小联盟自由 球员时通常不会来到洋基；一方面因为洋基忽略了他们的价值，一方面因为当你有Derek Jeter时，像Andy Cannizaro这样已经28岁还卡在3A的人有什麽盼望？小联盟老将比较会 注意这类事情。 These so-called replacement level players are freely available and wind up a resource that gets overlooked by an organization like the Yankees. A recent spate of injuries to the starting outfielders in Oakland didn't force A's General Manager Billy Beane to make repeated calls to his affiliate in Sacramento. Instead, he looked for help on other people's rosters, like San Diego and Atlanta, combing for the unwanted toys they might have lying around. The Braves had no idea that Ryan Langerhans would only have a short stay in Oakland, being flipped quickly for a fragile slugger ( Chris Snelling) from a NL East division rival, Washington. 这些所谓的取代层级球员是完全可用的资源，却被洋基这类的组织忽略了。最近运动家队 突如其来的先发外野伤兵问题并没有让总经理Billy Beane不断从3A Sacramento叫人上来 。相反地，他在别人的球员名册中求助，如教士队、勇士队，搜出那些别人不要的旧爱成 为自己的新欢。勇士队没有想到Ryan Langerhans会只在运动家停留一阵子，就很快被换 到国联东区的对手国民队交换玻璃强打Chris Snelling。 More tellingly, the Padres - a team with six former general managers on staff - had no idea that Jack Cust would go from Triple-A journeyman to MLB Player of the Week after they sold him to Oakland. Cust's home run binge is unsustainable, but his value has already well exceeded his cost. In today's game, studies done by Baseball Prospectus have shown that a win is worth about no less than $800,000 and can be worth up to almost $5 million to an individual team. Last year, teams paid on average just more than two million dollars for the equivalent of one win from a player. Using the sabermetric law that 10 runs equals a win, with his six homers in seven games Cust has already provided almost a win's worth of runs, and Cust isn't making much more than the minimum of $380,000. That's an arbitrage spread any trader would be happy to use as pocket lining. 更显着的例子：职员中有六名前总经理的教士队。他们想不到Jack Cust会在被卖到运动 家後从3A浪人变成MLB单周最佳球员。Cust的全垒打大爆发不会持续下去，但他的效益已 经超过成本了。现今Baseball Prospectus的研究中显示，一胜对单一球队的价值大约是 80万美金到500万美金。去年，各球队平均付给一名球员约两百万美金来获得一胜。利用 棒球统计学的法则-10分等於一胜，Cust在七场球赛中轰的六发全垒打已经提供几乎等於 一胜价值的分数了，而他的薪水只比最低薪38万美元多不了多少。这是任何一名交易者都 乐於利用的价差套利。 Like any number of minor leaguers that don't make prospect lists, the Jack Custs of the world are available at a relatively insignificant price. Any team could have made the same trade for someone like Cust, and even had he not had his prolific power streak, playing up to his value would be easy. The same could be said for phenom Josh Hamilton, coming back from personal travails and now outperforming the much higher-paid players in the Reds' outfield, Adam Dunn and Ken Griffey Jr. The game has reached a point where its inability to maximize available resources and fanatical avoidance of risk is in and of itself a risky drain of resources. Creative solutions like Cust or Hamilton are easier, cheaper, and less risky because of the low cost it takes to add them, an expense the team can absorb a lot more easily than a big-money bust from the free agent market. 就像任何不会出现在期待新人名单上的小联盟球员一样，许多Jack Cust们只要相较之下 毫不起眼的花费就可以为球队效劳。任何一队都可以交易来Cust这样的人；即使他没有如 Cust一样多产长打，打出这样的价值也相当容易。这套在表现出色的Josh Hamilton身上 也适用。他走出了个人的挣扎，现在表现得比身价不斐的外野手Adam Dunn, Ken Griffey Jr. 更好。棒球这项运动已经走到这一步，若你没有能力最大化可用资源并规划 好风险回避措施，这就会成为一项资源流失的风险。如Cust或Hamilton这样创造性的解决 方案是更简单、更便宜、更低风险的，因为得到他们的成本很低。比起在自由球员市场 上洒钱捞大鱼，球队可以更轻省地吸收这种花费。 Around the league, roster problems abound and cost their teams wins. The Twins go eight deep in major league-caliber starting pitchers but wind up using a hitter like Jason Tyner at DH despite his oh-fer-career homerless streak. The Cubs can't find a slot for their prodigy center fielder, Felix Pie, but also can't find serviceable middle relief help. The White Sox have four hurlers that could close for many teams but are left using someone like Darin Erstad in the outfield, providing terrible production. Even the Mets, a team who has both one of the smartest collections of talent in the front office and the checkbook to buy almost anything, are still struggling to find a couple guys for the back end of their rotation. You don't have to break the bank to find options, as long as you invest the time up front to accumulate them. 在大联盟中，球员深度问题相当常见，这会让苦主球队少赢许多场球。双城队拥有八名大 联盟等级的先发投手，却用了Jason Tyner这种球员来打DH，而他还在延长自己的生涯最 长连续无全垒打记录。小熊队有个天才外野手Felix Pie被卡在板凳上，却也找不到堪用 的中继投手。白袜队有四名投手可以在其他队当终结者，却用了Darin Erstad这种贡献度 凄惨的外野手。甚至大都会队，这可是一支同时拥有最聪明领导团队与最凯口袋的队伍， 却还在为先发轮值後段要用谁而伤脑筋。可见你不必倾家荡产来购买选项，只要你投 资并静待时间来积聚选项。 There's certainly more than one way to fill a roster. Whether it is the whiteboard theory in Boston or exploiting the free talent pool like Oakland, the best way to win is to have a plan. 要打造深度不只一个方法。不论是红袜队的白板理论或运动家队的市场开拓，赢球最 好的方式就是规划。 Mr. Carroll is a writer for Baseball Prospectus. For more state-of-the-art commentary, visit baseballprospectus.com. --

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