http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/columns/story?id=1556764 Tuesday, May 20, 2003 Justin Morneau Minnesota Twins Position: 1B Height: 6-4 Weight: 200 Born: 5/15/81 Bats: Left Throws: Right Year Team Lv G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS AVG OBP SLG 2001 Quad City A 64 236 50 84 17 2 12 53 26 38 0 0 .356 .420 .597 Fort Myers A 53 197 25 58 10 3 4 40 24 41 0 0 .294 .385 .437 New Britain 2A 10 38 3 6 1 0 0 4 3 8 0 0 .158 .214 .184 2002 New Britain 2A 126 494 72 147 31 4 16 80 42 88 7 0 .298 .356 .474 2003 New Britain 2A 20 79 14 26 3 1 6 13 7 14 0 0 .329 .384 .620 Rochester 3A 17 68 13 22 3 0 8 13 7 14 0 0 .324 .387 .721 Background Justin Morneau was a third-round pick in 1999, out of high school in British Columbia. He was a catcher as an amateur, but the Twins moved him to first base to take advantage of his booming bat. Compared to fellow Canadian Larry Walker, Morneau would likely have been a second or first-round pick if he'd gone to a United States high school. He's done nothing but rake pro pitching. Morneau hit .402 in rookie ball in '00, then knocked hurlers at two levels of A-ball in '01. He made a successful transition to Double-A last year, and is currently destroying Triple-A pitching in the International League. He may be the top first base prospect in the game today. Scouting report Morneau is large and strong, but isn't a one-dimensional home run hitter. Indeed, he's hit more for average than for power so far in his career, though he is lofting the ball more frequently in '03. He's just two homers shy of his career-best mark already, and it's only May. Morneau has a beautiful stroke, and unlike many power hitters, his swing is not "long." He destroys fastballs, and has learned how to read breaking balls and changeups. Although his walk rate is not overly high, he has good plate coverage, sound knowledge of the strike zone, and doesn't strike out much. Morneau is slow and won't be a threat to steal bases in the major leagues. His defense at first base is adequate, but will never be as good as current Twins first-sacker Doug Mientkiewicz. Scouts praise his work ethic, and he's worked hard to bounce back from a series of nagging injuries. Like most Twins prospects, he is fundamentally sound even if he doesn't have enough speed to scare pitchers. Performance Morneau entered '03 with career marks of .319/.386/.507, and is on course to meet or exceed those this year. As stated above, he is now tapping into his natural home run power, without losing any of his batting average or on-base percentage. The Twins Triple-A affiliate is now in Rochester, a reasonable park in a balanced league: his numbers there and in Double-A are not inflated by park effect. While I'd like to see a few more walks out of him, his relatively low strikeout rate shows that he is not a wild swinger, and won't handicap himself by flailing at pitches outside the strike zone. At age 22, he still has plenty of development time ahead of him. Given a normal growth curve, he could be a superstar hitter. Health record Injuries have slowed Morneau's development, which seems a weird thing to say given how well he has played. A knee injury in 2000 cost him several weeks; bone chips in his throwing elbow late that season also hindered his performance. Those injuries helped move him from behind the plate to first base. In 2002, a virus sapped his strength early in the year, and he wasn't fully healthy until after the All-Star break. None of his injuries have been of the chronic type individually, but his health bears watching. What to expect If the numbers are any indication, he is probably ready for a major-league trial right now. But the Twins have an embarrassment of riches at the DH/1B/OF slots, and feel no immediate need to rush Morneau. They can't even find room for Mike Cuddyer. Although his chance may not come for a while, in the long run, Morneau could be the best overall hitter the Twins have seen in a long time. Unless Mientkiewicz starts channeling Rod Carew, he'll have to watch over his shoulder for Morneau in 2004. --

※ 发信站: 批踢踢实业坊(ptt.cc) ◆ From: 140.112.251.104 ※ 编辑: tradewind 来自: 140.112.251.104 (07/21 14:48)