※ [本文转录自 MiamiHeat 看板 #1JUF_IKG ] 作者: kart (=\) 站内: MiamiHeat 标题: [外电] 热火-溜马 Scouting Report 时间: Mon May 19 02:45:36 2014 原文：http://ppt.cc/gen.php 开打前外电，算是中肯。可看看。 We told you this was inevitable, right? The champion Miami Heat and the East's No. 1 contender, the Indiana Pacers, are finally set for the long-anticipated rematch of last spring's seven-game Conference finals classic. The Heat have more or less cruised to this stage of the season, managing the minutes and effort of their stars through the 82-game slog, landing a good-enough 2-seed and rolling past Charlotte and Brooklyn to get their hunt for a three-peat rolling. Indiana spent most of the last calendar year training in anger for this moment, like Robert DeNiro's character from "Cape Fear." The Pacers' revenge mission was on track until March 4, when Indiana began a long stretch of inconsistency and mediocrity that has been one of the more confounding developments in recent NBA history. 就跟你说这两队对决是早就预定好的了吧。 卫冕军 vs 季赛东区第一种子 这系列应该是自从去年的7场大战後就写好剧本的了。 热火季赛养身，仍然拿到了个不赖的第二种子，并且在前两轮 轻松解决了山猫和篮网（相对而言）。 反之，溜马则花了一整年的时间养气，并且期待报仇的那一天到来， 直到三月四号为止：因为之後的溜马打得荒腔走板。 Overall, Indiana has split its last 36 games, but you know what? The Pacers are still here, with the entirety of their yearlong quest still rolled out before them: They are facing the Heat again, they are the No. 1 seed, and they own home-court advantage. 总的来看，溜马最後36场球只有很一般的18-18。但是你知道什麽吗？ 他们还是撑过来了。他们将要对决热火，而他们还有主场优势。 QUESTION 1: Last season we focused entirely on how the Pacers were a nightmare matchup for Miami. Who makes whom more uncomfortable this time around? 问题一：去年我们一直说溜马在对位上给了热火很大的噩梦。 今年这个对位上，谁会给谁更大麻烦？ Elhassan: I don't know if the Pacers make the Heat uncomfortable so much as they feel comfortable playing Miami. For whatever reason, they approach playing the defending champs with a lot more confidence than they do an upstart No. 8 seed like Atlanta, despite Miami similarly trotting out small-ball lineups that don't (on paper) match up well with Indiana's frontcourt. Roy Hibbert in particular has been a barometer of success for the Pacers against Miami: In two wins, he averaged 22.5 points on 57 percent shooting and has managed to make his presence felt around the rim by demanding attention on boxouts and discouraging forays to the rim defensively. Elhassan: 我不知道你可以说溜马让热火很头大而自己却对球队对位上感到舒适。 但是不论啥原因，他们似乎打热火时总能信心爆棚，打第八种子时反而显得 憋脚。即使老鹰基本上所有的对位优势都跟热火类似，而这种球队一向 不是溜马擅长对付的。 西伯特的表现将决定溜马这一系列能打多好，他在今年的两胜中平均 22.5分，57%的命中率。而他在篮下的防守好坏也是关键之一。 Doolittle: Yep, Hibbert is the key. He shined in the wins as you mentioned, but in the losses it was ugly: 5.5 points, 40 percent shooting and just 1.5 boards. If he produces like that in this series, it will be a Miami sweep. Fortunately for the Pacers, the Heat still don't have the post defender who can stand up to Hibbert. Oh, and Greg Oden has been sitting with the team during the playoffs, wearing a very nice looking tailored suit. Perhaps the sight of it will be enough to distract Hibbert. Doolittle: 是低，西伯特是关键。他在赢球时的表现总是特别亮眼， 但是他输球时也是很丑陋：5.5分，40%命中率和1.5颗篮板。 如果他在这系列是输球形态的表现，那溜马肯定被横扫。 幸运的是，热火的确没有任何能给西伯特带来麻烦的禁区球员。 欧，忘了提Oden，他今年季後赛在板凳上看起来挺不赖。 唔..也许西伯特会因为看到他而分心吧，呵呵。 During the playoffs, it's looked as though Hibbert gets going when he's made the focus of the Indy offense early, and once he gets momentum, he's usually able to sustain it. His energy on the glass and on defense then picks up. Everyone looks at him as the Miami killer, so it's unlikely the Pacers will forget about Hibbert, as has so often happened the last two-plus months. But of course that should have been the case against Atlanta, as well. In any event, it's impossible to predict the performance of a player who is as likely to score four points as he is 20. Of most concern: Hibbert has had just three double-digit rebound games since the beginning of February. The Pacers have been outrebounded during the playoffs, and Miami is 23-2 when they win the rebounding battle, playoffs included. And one of those losses was a one-point, double-overtime defeat to Minnesota. 西伯特的作用通常在赛初可以看出，如果赛初打得好，他往往会有 不错的表现。而他的篮板和防守也跟这段时间息息相关。 大家都认为他是热火杀手，所以我相信溜马不会把他给遗忘的- 过去两个多月以来常发生。 当然他的表现很难预测，毕竟他大概是得4分和得20分机率差不多的球员。 不过最令人忧心的是他自从今年二月开始，篮板上双只出现过三次。 溜马在这个季後赛篮板是处於被抢爆的状态。 热火在篮板上当赢了对手时，本季(包括季後赛）是23-2，其中一败 是对灰狼的一分，两次延长败。 QUESTION 2: Can the Pacers win without dominating the boards? 问题二：溜马能在篮板上没有完爆热火而赢得系列吗？ Elhassan: Short answer: no. The formula for beating Miami has been a steady diet of offensive rebounding, coupled with a strong post-up 4 or 5, capable wing defenders and backcourt scoring. A lot of what made Indiana a tough out last year was checking all of those boxes. Without the threat of offense created through second- and third-chance opportunities, there is no penalty for Miami running small lineups. This bears out in what we saw during the regular season, where Indiana struggled in the two losses where they weren't able to make a dent on the offensive glass. Elhassan: 简短地说：不行。 要打败热火大家都知道是要猛抢进攻篮板，和有一对强力的4-5号球员。 溜马去年能跟热火打得难分难解就是在这些点上做得很好。 如果他们没办法有足够的二三次进攻机会， 那他们就等於没有利用热火的小阵容来予以攻击。 这就是季赛那两败我们所看见的状况。 Doolittle: No they can't, and they may not have a shot even if Indy gets back to dominating on the offensive glass, which it hasn't been doing in the playoffs. Last season, the Pacers grabbed 32.4 percent of their own misses in the playoffs to lead all teams. This year, they haven't had even one game with a rebound rate that high, and they grabbed six or fewer offensive boards in five of the six games against Washington -- and it certainly wasn't because they were shooting the lights out. Doolittle: 打不败。事实上即使他们完爆篮板也不见得能打赢。而这个季後赛溜马 的篮板效率非常一般。 去年溜马在季後赛能抢到32.4%自己的投失球，这领先於所有季後赛球队。 今年打到现在，他们还没有一场球能抢到这个百分比的失投球。 他们在对巫师的系列基本上是反而被爆篮板。 Nevertheless, this Pacers offense needs those second-chance opportunities to score enough points to beat Miami. Unfortunately, Miami has mastered the art of winning without rebounding. Of the Heat's seven worst performances on the defensive glass this season, they've won them all. You can extend that to 26 wins in their 30 lowest defensive rebound percentages. It's pretty amazing when you think about it. 不论如何，溜马的进攻仰赖二次进攻的机会很大。 很不幸的是，热火是不用抢篮板而能赢球的个中好手。 （篮球名宿安西教练：............） 这样说吧，热火在季赛七场防守篮板保护最差的比赛里，七场皆胜。 事实上，在30场防守篮板最差的比赛中，他们赢了26场。 如果你仔细想想这些数字，你会觉得很惊人。 QUESTION 3: The LeBron James versus Paul George matchup is always fascinating to watch. Has George closed the gap at all? 问题三： LBJ vs PG，很棒的对决。PG拉近了一点差距吗？ Elhassan: Yes, in the sense that I can close the gap in a race with a guy in a Ferrari if he decides to stop for gas 20 miles in. George is a better and more confident player than he was last year, and he has improved specifically at attacking off the dribble and playmaking. He has a bad knack of resorting to harder shots but can get on a hot streak, and he gives Miami one more offensive threat to worry about. Elhassan: 是的，如果要说，就像说我跟一个开法拉利的赛跑，开法拉利的人 只开20英里/hr的话。 PG是打得更好，也比去年更有信心。 他的运球和传球都更好了。 他投篮选择不佳，但是偶而也可以连进n球。他的确会让热火有点麻烦。 Defensively, the hope for Indiana is the experience of guarding LeBron over 20 games during the last three seasons has prepared George to be a savvier and more calculating defender. George is not and will never be better than James, but he just needs to be good enough for Indiana to win. 防守上，溜马希望PG在过去三年已经守了LBJ不下20场能有更好的表现， PG并没有，也永远不会比Lebron优秀，但是他不需要比Lebron优秀， 就能让遛马赢球。 Doolittle: I can't match the Ferrari analogy, but sure, Paul George has continued to improve. He's still nowhere near LeBron's level, which by the way has been stratospheric during the playoffs. According to ESPN Stats & Info, LeBron's 32.9 PER this postseason is the third-highest. Ever. Another nugget from our stats group: The last two seasons on plays in which James and George have guarded each other, LeBron has averaged 16.8 points on 51.5 percent shooting; George is at 6.9 points on 42.7 percent. Doolittle: 我想不出比法拉利比喻更好的类比惹。但是的确，PG有在进步。 他还看不到LBJ的车尾灯。而LBJ今年季後赛打得非常好， 目前32.9的PER是史上第三高。 而过去两季两人互相放对的攻守数据如下： LBJ 16.8ppg, 51.5% FG PG 6.9ppg, 42.7% FG Predictions 预测 Elhassan: Heat in 6 games. Despite the relative ease it took Miami to get here (and the struggle for Indiana to get here), I think this series will still be extremely competitive and come down to end-of-game execution. Elhassan: 热火4-2晋级。 即使热火看来在季後赛打得很轻松，溜马打得很辛苦， 我认为这系列还是会打得非常接近。 Don't be surprised if: We see James guarding Hibbert in some late-game situations, freeing up Bosh to deter David West with his length. 不要觉得惊讶如果：我们看到Lebron防守Hibbert，让Bosh可以去打West。 Doolittle: Heat in 6 games. The Pacers have proven resilient, so I don't see this as a blowout matchup, and they do have the home-court advantage. But Indy's best-case scenario was to enter this series with the engine humming on all cylinders. Obviously, it is not. Nevertheless, I'd be shocked if we see the same kind of energy lapses that have plagued the Pacers the last two months. Doolittle: 热火4-2。溜马是很顽强的。不要期望看到大比分胜出。而且 溜马还有主场优势。然而溜马要赢要有最佳状态，很显然目前的溜马 离最佳状态有一段距离。 Don't be surprised if: The Lance Stephenson-Dwyane Wade matchup turns out to be the real bellwether for this series. That's probably not good news for the Pacers. 不要惊讶如果： Stephenson-Wade的对决是这系列的胜负关键。但是我认为这对溜马来说 不会是好消息。 Log5 probabilities: 51 percent chance Pacers win series. 赌盘预测：溜马51%机会晋级。 --

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