※ [本文转录自 NBA 看板 #1JHRhF24 ] 作者: kart (=\) 站内: NBA 标题: [外絮] MVP争夺战已经结束 时间: Thu Apr 10 05:25:33 2014 原文 http://ppt.cc/yMHR Defense matters. 防守很重要滴 If there's one takeaway from the ranking of ESPN's new real plus-minus metric, it's this: Defense is a huge deal. The defensive side of the floor, which represents half the game, has been underserved in the basketball conversation, especially when it comes to talking about the individual. 如果要从昨天出版的 真实正负值(RPM) 里找出一项最重要的资讯， 那就是防守占的比重非常之大。毕竟在篮球世界里，防守应当占了一半 的空间。然而现今咱们提到篮球往往都忽略了它，尤其在讨论个别球员时。 But now, RPM is giving credit where credit is due. 但是现在RPM给了防守应当有的评价！ The MVP race illustrates this dynamic perfectly. It has been long assumed as an article of faith that LeBron James is a better defender than Kevin Durant, and therefore the Oklahoma City star would have to make up for his defensive deficiencies on the other end. But as RPM shows us, that hasn't necessarily been the case this season. 防守的重要性也在历届MVP讨论中被提出。事实上大部份 的人都认为Lebron比Durant来说是更好的防守者，因此Durant要得奖， 首先必须要在防守端上跟上Lebron才行。然後这季而言，事实似乎 不是我们所想像的。 You often hear about a player having a down shooting year or a down rebounding year. Well, James is having a down defensive year. And that, more than anything, is why he'll likely lose the MVP battle this season. 用篮球术语来讲，Lebron今年有个糟糕的防守年。而这一点， 就是他为什麽会在MVP争夺战中落败的主因。 Most folks have probably handed the MVP trophy to Durant already, but interestingly enough, James currently leads the league by the slimmest of margins in WAR, which is the estimated number of team wins attributable to a player based on RPM. Simply put, WAR is RPM that takes into account minutes played. James currently paces the league with 17.07 WAR, while Durant, who has played more minutes than James, nips at his heels at 16.73. This is insanely close and should go down to the wire. Considering this is an estimated number, we can see this as a virtual tie. 当然大部份的人可能已经把MVP给了Durant，但是有趣的是， LBJ还是在WAR的数据上领先群雄。详表见下。 （WAR: Wins Above Replacement，基本上是一种进阶数据，用来 预测该球员被取代後对球队胜负影响的差距。 白话点来说，LBJ的WAR是17，就是Lebron被取代後，热火会少17胜。） WAR的推算是根据RPM而来，简单来说，WAR就是RPM的变种，把上场时间算入。 Lebron和Durant的WAR比第三名高了一截，两人的差距并不大， 考量到这只是个预测值，我们可以说两人平手。 As the WAR leaderboard demonstrates, this is a two-man race, with James and Durant separated from the pack by a margin of three wins. A 17 WAR figure means that James' impact on the floor has been worth 17 wins above the replacement player. What's a replacement player? It's a statistical benchmark for freely available talent that you can pick up off waivers or the D-League. Basically, the guy at the end of the bench. 如同下表，今年的MVP就是Lebron和Durant两者相争， 其他人都是看戏的。WAR 17代表Lebron被替代球员取代後球队胜场的差距。 替代球员是怎麽算的？用统计来推论任何市场上所有可以选的球员， 包含D-league在内。基本上，你可以说就是个守开特例的那位。 WAR Leaderboard Player WAR LeBron James 17.07 Kevin Durant 16.73 Stephen Curry 13.68 Chris Paul 13.10 Kevin Love 13.05 Dirk Nowitzki 12.41 DeAndre Jordan 11.58 Andre Iguodala 11.47 Blake Griffin 11.02 LaMarcus Aldridge 10.7 From an RPM perspective, the MVP race is close. But if James gave an above-average output on defense this season, this probably wouldn't be a contest. 昨天我们得知如果用RPM来看个别球员的贡献，MVP的竞争是很接近的。 但是如果Lebron在防守端能多用点力，他可以把差距拉得更大。 We have seen hints of James' lackluster defense in the box score, but RPM paints a fuller picture, an assessment that many haven't been willing to see. RPM informs us that the reigning MVP has been a below-average defender this season once we account for teammates, opponents, coaches and other factors. Yes, below average. To be more precise, he's estimated to be 0.21 points per 100 possessions worse than the average defender in 2013-14, which is about a full point worse than Durant. 我们可以勉强从分数盒中看出Lebron今年在防守端的表现普普。 RPM则让我们更清楚明白地看到这个大部份的人都不愿意见到的事实： 这位MVP的卫冕者今年在防守端的表现比联盟均值还差。 是的，低於平均。更准确点说，他的防守在100次球权中，比平均球员 还低0.21分，比Durant差了一分整。 How can that be? In a vacuum, James is stronger, more versatile and probably more heady than Durant on defense. Most would agree on those notions. But the effort hasn't always been there. And the numbers are picking it up. 这...不科学啊！毕竟Lebron更强壮，更多功能，也比Durant 在防守端上更聪明。这些形容大部份的人都会认同。但是差别在努力不够。 而数据显示了这一点。 James likes to tout his rare ability to guard all five positions on the floor. He can do that. But what he's not mentioning is that this rare ability hasn't consistently translated into winning results. Lebron喜欢吹捧自己能守五个位置的罕见能力。 他的确可以。问题是他并没有稳定的防守表现转换为赢球。 RPM captures that on the whole, but let's slice this down into pieces. According to exclusive data provided to ESPN.com by Vantage Sports, an analytics company that has clients around the league, James has registered surprisingly low numbers on the defensive end. James' KIF (keep in front percentage) this season is one of them. James has kept only 40 percent of drive attempts in front of him, which is lower than the league median of 50 percent. Not the markings of a lockdown on-ball defender. Vantage Sports tracking also tells us that James has been beaten back on transition defense 2.8 times per 100 chances, which is far more than the league average of 0.5 times per 100 chances. RPM这个数据准确地抓住了这个死角，让我们更细微的来看。 我们ESPN利用Vantage Sports数据分析公司提供的资料显示， Lebron今年在防守数据上的呈现是非常糟糕的。 Lebron的被过率就是其一。被过率计算的是每次防守时，有多少%被 其防守的对方球员切过的比例，联盟均值以50%来计算，Lebron有60% 的比例被防守球员切过，也就是说他只能挡住40%的切入。 这并不是一个大锁该有的表现。 而全场防守上，Lebron在100次对方全场进攻的球权中，有2.8次来不及回防， 远高於联盟平均的0.5次。 The box score isn't favorable to James, either. He's blocking shots about a third as often as he did last season. His block percentage of 0.7 is the same as that of Kyrie Irving, Monta Ellis and Mario Chalmers. James' steal rate is also down for the second season in a row, down to 2.2 percent. Again, James has the ability to block shots, cause turnovers and wrap up his assignment no matter what position he plays. But the effort hasn't been there. And when effort doesn't match ability, that's where the coasting talk comes in. 就连传统分数盒对Lebron也是不利的。他的盖火锅次数 是上季的1/3左右。他的盖火锅率（0.7%)跟KI, Ellis和前十控一样。 他的抄截率已经连续两年下降，目前是2.2%。 是的，Lebron的确有敲火锅和抄截的能力，不论防守哪个位置。 但是他的努力明显不到位。当你的表现和你的能力不符时， 养身之说自然不肵而走。 And in the grand scheme of things, James is probably smart to preserve his energy on that end of the floor for the playoffs. He has carried the Heat for much of the season without his co-pilot Dwyane Wade, who has missed 26 games this season dealing with an assortment of leg issues. Believe it or not, James has the majority of his minutes (59 percent) without Wade on the floor this season. Last season, James starred without Wade for only a third of his minutes. This is a new, more demanding set of circumstances for James in Miami. 当然从大处着手，我们猜想Lebron只是为了保留季後赛体力 所为。别忘了今年他大部份的时间都是在Wade不在的时候打球， Wade目前错失了26场比赛。事实上，Lebron今年有59%的上场时间 是Wade不在的。上一个球季，Lebron和Wade不同时上场的时间只有 20%左右。这对Lebron而言是一个新的挑战。 Look, the Heat have not played great defense this season. They basically took off the entire month of January when they gave up the sixth-most points to their opponent on a per-possession basis. The scoreboard tells us that the Heat have been 3.0 points per 100 possessions better with James off the floor than on the floor, according to NBA.com data. He's performed better recently, but RPM confirms that he has a hand in that drop off. 热火今年的确在防守端表现不佳。他们在一月的时候基本上 像是放大假一样，让对手能得联盟第六多的分数。如果从这上面来看， 当Lebron不在场上时，热火的防守效率反而多了三分之多。 他最近在这方面表现得比较好，但是RPM的分析也证实了此点。 With a more consistent effort from James, they probably don't sit three games behind the Thunder in the loss column. And team record goes a long way in the MVP discussion. 如果Lebron在防守端有尽力，那他们现在不会比雷霆多输三场球。 而众所皆知球队表现对MVP的产生有决定性的影响。 Remember, RPM and WAR are enlightening metrics because they don't solely depend on the confines of the box score -- where defense is a blind spot -- to appraise a player's contributions. And from a WAR lens, the MVP race is far from over, even with James' defensive shortcomings that have hurt the Heat's standing. But James can't hide on that end anymore. With a little more dedication on that end, James would likely be on his way to another MVP. 记住，RPM和WAR这类数据的优点是他们不受分数盒所控制。 而分数盒没办法显示出防守的重量。从WAR的角度来看，MVP之争依然没有结束 即使Lebron防守上的表现是如此糟糕。但是WAR和RPM让Lebron在这方面 的表现无所遁形。如果Lebron能多在防守端尽点力，或许他现在可以 迈向第五座MVP。 ＝＝＝＝＝＝＝＝＝＝＝＝＝＝＝＝＝＝＝＝＝＝＝＝＝＝＝＝＝＝ 基本上算是不意外 @@ 只是多一个量化的数据来显示Lebron今年在防守端打得很烂 .... 囧 --

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