※ [本文转录自 NBA 看板 #1EG-Y7xV ] 作者: sampsonlu919 (父亲，愿你安息) 看板: NBA 标题: [新闻] 专家看好热火前景 建立王朝仍存变数 时间: Thu Aug 11 22:34:42 2011 [球队] 专家看好热火前景 建立王朝仍存变数 http://nba.pixnet.net/news/article/2011-08-11/43680/46127 发表时间：2011-08-11 进入休季期後，《ESPN》每天都会邀请旗下五位篮球专家，来探讨一些不同的热门 话题，这一次专家们把矛头对向甫在决赛败给小牛的迈阿密热火，对於这支话题 球队，五位专家多半看好三巨头能在新赛季取得联盟最佳战绩，同时在未来10年内 能够有所作为。 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ What's in store for Miami Heat in '11-12? http://es.pn/ov4cpi ESPN.com and the TrueHoop Network 热火队在2011-12赛季能打出全联盟最佳战绩吗？ Fact or Fiction: Miami will have the NBA's best record in '11-12 温德霍斯特(Brian Windhorst, 热火部落格Heat Index)： Fact. Although it is hard to predict how the league will look post-lockout, let's assume the top teams will mostly have stability in their rosters for the short-term. The Heat had the third-best regular-season record in the league (58-24) last season despite a 9-8 start, and simple growing pains cost them several games. The Bulls would have a strong case as well, but the Heat seem like they could carry the back half of last season into major regular-season success next season. 可以。虽然停摆让新赛季的前景变得难以难测，但我预测不会受到太大的影响。上季 热火前17战仅仅拿下9胜8负，但最终他们却取得了58胜24负的出色战绩。第一个赛季 是他们的阵痛期，相信第二个赛季才是他们真正的收获期。当然，芝加哥公牛也很 值得期待，他们有望成为热火最大的拦路虎。但相比之下，我更看好热火在例行赛 排名第一。 史特劳斯(Ethan Sherwood Strauss, 影音部落格HoopSpeak)： Fact. The best record goes to the team least validated by getting it. 可以。即便下季他们再次错失总冠军，但称霸例行赛应该没有太大的难度。 哈伯史特罗(Tom Haberstroh, 热火部落格Heat Index)： Fact. LeBron James, Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh won't require an extended jell phase like we saw in 2010-11. They have the best chance at the top overall seed, although I'll peg the Chicago Bulls and the Oklahoma City Thunder to be right there with them. 可以。因为詹姆士(LeBron James)、韦德(Dwyane Wade)和波许(Chris Bosh)已经没有 退路，他们必须全力以赴。就像我们在2010-11赛季中途所看到的那样，他们完全可以 统治整场比赛，可以为他们的季後赛赢得主场优势，我相信体力充沛的三巨头在下个 赛季是不会错过这个机会的。另外，我还看好公牛和雷霆，这两支球队也有望冲击 例行赛冠军。 梅森(Beckley Mason, 影音部落格HoopSpeak)： Fiction. I think it's even money between Oklahoma City, Chicago and Miami -- whoever is healthiest wins. I'll take the field, but I think if everyone on every team is healthy all season, the Heat are primed for a monster season. 不行。我认为热火难以在例行赛中保持同一个状态，他们的起伏会比较大。我认为联盟 例行赛冠军将会在公牛、雷霆和热火三队之间产生，健康的球队将会笑到最後，相比 之下，前两者的希望更大一些。当然，如果三支球队都能保持健康，那热火的胜算也许 会增加一些。 狄贾玛(Ryan DeGama, 赛尔提克部落格Celtics Hub)： Fact. They nearly got there last season fielding a team filled with utterly dispensable spare parts behind James, Wade and Bosh. But this Miami squad is being judged on LeBron's pledge to win seven-plus NBA titles, not whether they can stay focused through the regular season. 可以。实际上，上个赛季他们已经有机会在例行赛登顶，只是磨合时间稍长耽误了他们 的一些胜利，而这在下个赛季完全是可以避免的。展望2011-12赛季，热火球员之间的 配合将更加有默契，詹姆士和韦德有望发挥出更大的能量。不过热火能否称霸例行赛 仍需观察。 热火队能成为一支统治联盟未来10年的王朝球队吗？ Fact or Fiction: The Heat are the team of the next decade. 温徳霍斯特： Fiction. They probably will be in good position to challenge for a title next season and perhaps the season after that. But new restrictions in a reworked CBA, especially if a hard salary cap is instituted, may paint the Heat into a corner. If the owners get their way -- and don't think for a second that the majority isn't targeting the Heat's grand plans as a pleasant side benefit of their desired new structure -- Miami simply may not be able to keep all three of its All-Stars together and field a well-rounded team. 这要取决於新的CBA(劳资协议)。如果联盟实行硬性薪资上限，那麽热火将很难再进行 人员补强，他们的未来将很难完全施展，他们甚至不得不为薪资问题进而拆散三巨头。 如果不能同时保留三巨头并进行补强的话，热火将很难建立起一个王朝。 Then again, maybe it will. Right now everyone is guessing at what the future might look like. But many in the league are guessing the new rules won't favor a Heat dynasty. 但话又说回来，谁知道未来10年会发生什麽事情，现在猜测这个还为时尚早。 史特劳斯： Fact. In my crystal ball, I see the Heat winning four rings, followed by all of us contriving stories about how LeBron's grown as a person, because obviously you can't win a shiny thing unless you grow as a person. 我认为可以。如果詹姆士能够进一步成长和成熟起来，我相信热火在未来十年至少应该 能够赢得4个总冠军。 哈伯史特罗： Fact. No team has a collection of three players as woefully underpaid going forward as the Heat do with LeBron, Wade and Bosh. In the long haul, bang- for-the-buck is what matters. And they have a lot of bang. 可以。因为如今联盟没有一支球队能够像热火那样同时拥有三名最顶级球星。如果 詹姆士、韦德和波许保持健康并始终在一起并肩作战，那麽他们早晚肯定能开创出 一个王朝。 梅森： No idea. It will take three titles to definitively own that accolade, and no potential "Team of the Decade" has won one. Miami better start collecting titles soon because Wade, 29, seems headed for a big drop-off after 2014-15. However, three other teams have won three titles in five years since 1996, why not the team featuring two of the game's five best players? 我不清楚。如果以10年内拿下至少三个冠军来作为王朝的定义，我认为热火很难做到。 如今韦德已经29岁了，他的巅峰期顶多能够维持到2014-15赛季。当然，自从1996年 以来，已经有三支球队在5年内3夺总冠军，热火也并不是完全没有机会。 狄贾玛： Fiction. I have enough lingering concerns about Wade's future health that I'd probably take OKC, which has better roster balance and no lack of young, top-of-the-rotation talent. The Heat should own the next couple of years though. 不行。韦德的年龄和伤病是你必须考虑的事情，相比之下，我更看好奥克拉荷马雷霆， 他们的球员结构更加平衡，而且不缺年轻和天赋，未来10年他们更有可能统治联盟。但 我同意一点，至少最近几个赛季热火有望成为王者 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 另外补充痞客邦没有翻到的三个问题 Fact or Fiction: The Heat are the most despised sports team ever 热火是有史以来最被瞧不起的球队？ ＃Brian Windhorst: Fiction，他的反例是1980年奥运的苏俄冰球队，因为当时 比较被看好的他们在决赛爆冷输给了实力较弱的美国队，此事後来也被拍成电影 "冰上奇蹟" ＃Ethan Sherwood Strauss: Fact. ＃Tom Haberstroh: Fiction，反例为1988-89被称为Bad Boys的活塞队 ＃Beckley Mason: Fiction，反例为1972年奥运的苏俄篮球队，不少美国球评认为 俄佬当年的冠军其实有不少侥幸成分，讲白一点就是另类的黑哨 ＃Ryan DeGama: Fact，但他认为这也跟媒体有不小的关系 Fact or Fiction: LeBron's fourth-quarter struggles are a major concern LBJ的第四节软手症是球队的一大隐忧？ ＃Brian Windhorst, Heat Index: Fiction. ＃Ethan Sherwood Strauss, HoopSpeak: Fiction. ＃Tom Haberstroh, Heat Index: Fiction. ＃Beckley Mason, HoopSpeak: Fact. ＃Ryan DeGama, Celtics Hub: Fact. Fact or Fiction: The Heat are Dwyane Wade's team. 热火是韦德的球队？ ＃Brian Windhorst, Heat Index: Fact. ＃Ethan Sherwood Strauss, HoopSpeak: Fiction. ＃Tom Haberstroh: Fiction，他并补充正名热火其实是Micky Arison（老板）的球队 ＃Beckley Mason, HoopSpeak: Neither. ＃Ryan DeGama, Celtics Hub: Fiction. 对东南组有兴趣的球迷，可以顺便参考ESPN另外两队的分析文 老鹰：http://es.pn/qzkBmn 魔术：http://es.pn/pCFS1l -- / \ Ｕ　 ny ★ 小 　Ｇ　 　鹰 囧 ◆ 口 / \ / \ / \ / \ / \ / \ / \ / \ Ｖ　 口 口 口 口 口 口 口 口 英囧 大囧宁 小囧宁 囧莫 囧利斯 囧杰斯 囧克 囧莱迪 囧-Roe --

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