看到一篇外电分析LBJ去年季後赛的手肘经过一年沈淀以後的真相 LeBron's elbow, one year later By Kevin Arnovitz, ESPN Exactly one year after LeBron James' series of reckoning against Boston, Hoopdata's Jeff Fogle examines the tea leaves in search of some answers about what, if any, effect did LeBron's elbow have on his performance. Hoopdata的杰夫花了点时间分析去年LBJ季後赛手肘对Boston的影响。 Fogle revisits the discussion at the time of the series: There was conclusive evidence and testimonials that James' elbow was clearly bothering him, particularly in the Cavs' win over Chicago in the first round. Remember the left-handed free throw against the Bulls (see the 3:18 mark of the video)? We're even told to check NBA.com for further details of LeBron's condition. Remember James' admission that, despite the persisting discomfort, he wouldn't use the elbow as an excuse for the Game 2 loss in Cleveland against the Celtics? 杰夫认为LBJ当时手肘的伤势对Boston的系列赛绝对有影响。 杰夫甚至鼓励大家去NBA.com察看当时的纪录可以左证他的观察。 而他也认为LBJ自己当时都承认手肘有伤，只是说这不是输球藉口。 As Fogle points out, much of the elbow talk subsided after the Cavs walloped the Celtics in Game 3 of that series and James had a monster game -- just as he did in Game 1. 当然关於手肘门，媒体似乎在LBJ Game 3的爆发後沈淀下来了。 毕竟LBJ第三战和第一战表现一样好。 What did Games 1 and 3 of the Cleveland-Boston have in common? James had three days of rest: 但是第一战和第三战的共同点是都有三天休息时间。 *Cleveland had three days off to prepare for Game One of the Boston series after eliminating Chicago on April 27, 2010. With the series starting on May 1, 2010, that's three off days to rest and get ready. LeBron had a great first game. 35 points, 7 rebounds, and 7 assists. Concerns about the elbow disappeared... LBJ第一战得了35/7/7。大家似乎都认为他的手肘ok了。 *A quirk in the schedule gave Cleveland and Boston three days off before Game Three in Beantown. They played May 1, May 3, and May 7. Again, with a lengthy recovery time between games (and whatever potential treatment may be involved over a layoff), LeBron was great! He had 38 points, 8 rebounds, and 7 assists. 而有长休息的第三战LBJ得了38/8/7。 Fogle then delves into the numbers, paying close attention not just to LeBron's general output, but to his relative performance as a jump shooter vs. as a basket attacker. Some interesting data emerged: 这或许是巧合，但是当杰夫对LBJ的出手选择做出深一层的研究後 发现一些更有趣的例子： LeBron was hitting his open looks from distance in the games where the arm was well rested. In fact, he was more accurate from behind the arc than in the 16-23 foot range. But, in the quick turnarounds, he was a woeful 2 of 17 on treys (44 percentage points worse). Doesn't THAT suggest a potential injury issue all by itself? A guy's got a bad elbow, and he goes 2 of 17 on long shots in games with limited preparation and rest time. Why wasn't that a red flag to the national media. 当LBJ有时间好好休息时（game1 and 3），他的长距离跳投是很准的。 他的三分甚至比他的中长距离（16-23'）还准！ 但是当他没有足够休息时（game 2, 4, 5, 6），他的中长距离跳投 命中率下降到17投中2的差劲地步。 Unbelievably, James was 10 of 43 from OUTSIDE OF TWO FEET in those four games. TWO FEET! 更令人难以置信的是，在这四场比赛里，LBJ离篮筐两尺外的命中率是可怕的 43投10中。两尺外！！ Fogle looks at an array of stats -- stuff that an elbow injury wouldn't affect as much such as rebounding, close-range shots and assist totals ("The elbow moves more side-to-side on passes, compared to straight up and down on jump shots."). Fogle also notes that James logged his highest turnover totals on short rest: 杰夫并且说这几场比赛，在比较不需要应用手肘的地方，像是 篮板，近距离投篮，或是助攻都影响不大。 杰夫也说LBJ在这四场比赛的失误率也上升很多。 He became so reckless, because he was fighting hard to get close to the basket and either score or kick the ball out to a shooter, that his turnovers shot way up. He commited 7 turnovers in Game Four, and a whopping 9 turnovers in the Game Six finale. LBJ变得很粗心，因为他必须要尽可能的接近篮下去得分或是传球。 他的失误率因此上升很多。 He's been called a quitter because Cleveland didn't win the series. Here are the so-called quitter's stats in that series finale: LBJ因为去年那个糟糕的系列赛被大夥耻笑为逃避者(Quitter)， 但是这个所谓Quitter最後一场球的表现如下： 27 points (even though he was just 2 of 10 from outside two feet!!!!) 27分（即使他在两尺外出手命中率只有10投中2！！） 19 rebounds (huge total for a small forward) 19板（以小前锋而言的高高标） 10 assists (completing a triple double) 10助攻（完成大三元） Is this data conclusive? It's tough to say. One could argue that any high usage athlete -- a small forward, a starting pitcher or, for that matter, a singles tennis player or a competitive cyclist -- will naturally perform better with more rest, whether or not they're nursing an injury. 这个资料有像杰夫说得一样有结论吗？这或许见仁见智。 不过有些人会说长时间的休息对运动员来讲本来就会加分（注1） But in a conversation where assumptions have reigned supreme and things like quitting and choking have been ascribed so freely, Fogle's discoveries should certainly be food for thought. 不过在现在这个乡民泛滥，假设一堆的年代，大家都很轻易的叫 选手逃避者或是关键软手，杰夫的研究或许应该得到一些讨论。 =========================================================== （注1）如果有在跟LBJ的人应该知道，这三年来，LBJ表现最差的时候 通常是休息最久的时候（3+day rest），0-1day rest的球赛LBJ其实 反而表现最好（这数据很容易上NBA.com查），所以去年LBJ季後赛 反而需要休息那麽久才打得好，当时就已经大有悬疑了。 （注二） LBJ昨天赛後曾经说以前他如果不打出A+级的比赛，要赢Bos 非常困难（他也说并不是说以前队友不好，大家都曾努力过了）等等。 我觉得就是他间接承认去年伤病的影响，也让他决定来找帮手的原因。 去年LBJ并不是到不能打得地步，但是很明显这个伤让他的表现无法 那麽随心所欲了，而当他不能保证打出A级比赛，骑士也就兵拜如山倒。 我想对他来说来热火就是给她有一层保障，当他因为甚麽原因也无法 随心所欲的打出A级比赛时，他还能靠其他表现帮助他的队友来赢得比赛。 （注三）我觉得之後的West门是恶意中伤居多，也让大家几乎忘了LBJ 当时手肘有伤得影响。 --

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