※ [本文转录自 Thunder 看板 #1DXUq8jl ] 作者: poning (今天总算有太阳) 看板: Thunder 标题: [外电] Using Math To Determine the Ballhogs 时间: Sun Mar 20 20:03:17 2011 数学或统计我都不会…内容自然以英文为准， 翻译有错的话请指正！ === http://tinyurl.com/46t5ec6 Using Math To Determine the Ballhogs Even the casual fan knows the NBA is full of chuckers—those frustrating players who hoist up fade-away jumpers in the face of a double-team. But with the help of advanced math, we can finally pinpoint the greatest offenders. 即使是普通的运动迷都知道NBA有很多滥投王---这些令人沮丧的球员，面对包夹，依旧会 来个後仰跳投。但是透过进阶数学的帮忙，我们终於可以找出谁是最滥投的球员了。 Matt Goldman, a graduate student at the University of California, San Diego, and Justin Rao, a research scientist at Yahoo Labs, have identified the three biggest "overshooters" in the NBA: the Thunder's Russell Westbrook, the Bobcats' Tyrus Thomas and the Lakers' Lamar Odom. Conversely, they named the Hornets' Chris Paul the biggest "undershooter." Matt Goldman是一名加州大学圣地牙哥分校的研究生， Justin Rao则是Yahoo Labs的研究 员，他们两位已经列出三名NBA最严重的滥投王是谁了---Russell Westbrook、Tyrus Thomas与Lamar Odom。同时他们也认为Chris Paul是NBA最该多投一点的谦虚型球员。 To compile the lists, the researchers tracked 400,000 possessions over the past four full seasons and noted the time on the shot clock when the first shot went up (they excluded fast-breaks). Then they used a statistical procedure known as a "Maximum Likelihood Estimation" to find each player's "marginal shot"—the most difficult shot each player is consistently willing to take. Using this information, the researchers were able to analyze when in the shot clock each player takes these low-percentage shots and how efficient he is at making them. Finally, they ran a statistical test to see how a player's shot selection compares to how his team would have fared otherwise. The results showed which players would help their team by taking more difficult shots and which should be more bashful. 为了完成这个名单，他们追踪了过去4个球季约400,000次的进攻次数，并纪录24秒进攻时间 内，第一次出手的时间（他们扣除快攻）。他们使用最大近似值(Maximum Likelihood Estimation)这个统计方法来找出每个球员的「贫乏的投篮」---意指在他们所有投篮之中最 困难的、对手球员乐於看见的投篮。利用这些资讯，研究者得以分析每个球员在进攻时间内 命中率最低的投篮是发生在何时与每个投篮的效率值为何。最後，他们进行显着性检验 (statistical test)来观察球员的投篮选择与球队得到利益或否。统计结果表示出哪个球员 最应该多尝试投篮，哪个球员应该要谨慎一点。 Goldman said overshooters are generally players who try to create shots too early in the shot clock. In Westbrook's case, the Thunder would be better off if he passed more. Undershooters, meanwhile, are often stars who choose not to shoot as much as they probably should—LeBron James should have actually shot more during his time with Cleveland. Goldman说滥投王一般来说是那种进攻时间剩很多的时候就投篮的人。对雷霆的Westbrooks 来说，如果他多传球，会对球队比较好。相反的，谦虚型的球员，就算是该他投的球，很多 时候也会选择不要投。话说LBJ在骑士时确实应该多投一点。 —Jared Diamond =============================================================================== Who Shoots Too Much? 谁投太多球？ Over the past four full seasons, here are the NBA's biggest "overshooters" and "undershooters," based on a formula that estimates when a player should shoot and when he'd be better off passing. 以下是根据过去四个完整球季的资料，以上面提到的统计方法，统计出来的该多传球 的滥投王与该自私点的谦虚型球员。 OVERSHOOTERS (Rating*) UNDERSHOOTERS (Rating) 滥投王 太谦虚啦！ Russell Westbrook (-2.98) Chris Paul (+5.34) Tyrus Thomas (-1.98) Brandon Roy (+5.13) Lamar Odom (-1.94) LeBron James (+4.93) Monta Ellis (-1.91) Al Jefferson (+4.62) *Zero is an optimal rating *0是理想中最佳值 -- 哲学的义务，是去除因误解而生的幻想。 --

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