※ [本文转录自 NBA 看板 #1D4yK4yM ] 作者: kart (=\) 看板: NBA 标题: [ESPN专栏] Kobe or LeBron king of crunch time? 时间: Fri Dec 24 05:54:10 2010 每年到了这个时候类似的文章（kobe vs LBJ) 就会层出不穷 所以就给板上也热闹热闹一下好了 XD 原文 http://ppt.cc/1RUF Closer. Assassin. Cold-blooded killer. Over the past few seasons, these labels have become synonymous with Kobe Bryant, the NBA's preeminent king of clutch. Time and time again, we have witnessed Bryant's heroics at the end of games. The Lakers star had a league-leading six game winners in the final 10 seconds of games in 2009-10, with his flair for the dramatic seemingly becoming a weekly fixture. 终结者。刺客。冷血杀手。。。 过去几季这些辞汇变成了kobe的代名词，NBA倒数计时的时刻里最厉害的 王者。我们的确目睹了多次kobe的绝杀球。 在去年球季里kobe投进了六次绝杀球。让人们感觉到好像每个礼拜都要 来那麽一下一样。 Bryant is, by all accounts, the player you want to have the ball when the game is on the line. 所以毫无疑问的当比赛处於最关键时刻的时候，kobe是你想把球放在 他手中的球员。 So why do the numbers say otherwise? Or, more to the point, why do they suggest LeBron James, not Bryant, has performed better in the clutch recently? 但是当我们检视数据的时候，我们发现，LBJ在比赛关键时刻打得 比kobe好。为什麽会这样呢？ The hard data 铁证 To be clear, no two people will have identical opinions of when a basketball game enters the proverbial game-on-the-line territory. But if we stick to the generally accepted criteria of clutch -- thanks to the go-to crunch-time source 82games.com -- we draw the line at less than 5 minutes left in the fourth quarter or overtime, with the game within five points. Using those thresholds, we see some eye-catching facts: Despite Bryant's six game winners last season, James bested him in just about every statistical category down the stretch in clutch situations. 当然没有任何两个人对何时是球赛的关键时刻有相同看法。 不过感谢82games.com的整理，我们可以借用她们的定义： 球赛最後五分钟或是延长赛，而两队差距在5分以内的比赛。 如果照这标准来看，我们马上发现了一个惊人的事实： kobe除了投进那六次绝杀球，LBJ基本上在每个你能统计的数据上 表现的都比kobe好。列表如下： KOBE VS. LEBRON IN CLUTCH Kobe LeBron PER 37.6 47.2 Pts/40 44.5 48.1 FG% 43 pct. 45 pct. Reb/40 4.3 10.9 Ast/40 4.3 5.6 Steals 1.6 2.1 Blocks 0 1.8 （PER：球员效率值，Pts/40：每40分钟得分，FG%：命中率， Reb/40：每40分钟篮板，Ast/40：每40分钟助攻， Steals：抄截，Blocks：火锅） Here are the facts: James has posted a mind-boggling 47.2 Player Efficiency Rating while averaging 48.1 points on 45 percent shooting, 10.9 rebounds and 5.6 assists per 40 minutes in the clutch over the past two seasons. Bryant? He checks in at a 37.6 PER, with an average of 44.5 points on 43 percent shooting, 4.3 rebounds and 4.3 assists. Statistically, James outperformed Bryant on the defensive end as well, averaging 1.8 blocks and 2.1 steals. Kobe, on the other hand, has averaged 1.6 steals with no blocks in crunch time. 事实就是，LBJ在过去两季关键时刻的PER是吓死人的47.2，放大换算成40分钟 的表现就是48.1/10.9/5.6的非人表现。Kobe则有37.6的PER值， 放大成40分钟的表现会是44.5/4.3/4.3。 而在防守端的数据上LBJ一样是表现较好的一方，平均有1.8锅和2.1抄截。 Kobe则有1.6抄截，但是在关键时刻则敲不出一锅。 That's just an absurd level of production from both players, but James clearly has the upper hand. (And career-wise, James has the edge as well). 当然这树据显示两个球员在关键时刻都是非人哉，但是不可否认的是 LBJ是比较好的一边。（如果放大到生涯来比较，LBJ也是比较好。） The team context 球队阵容 So the question then becomes: Is James selfishly piling up stats at the expense of his team's success? 所以很多乡民就会问啦：LBJ只是在乎数据的自私鬼啦，不管球队胜负啦？ It appears to be the opposite. 不过答案是相反的。 James' teams have outscored opponents by 126 points in his 228 minutes of clutch play, debunking the theory that James is merely a compiler of empty stats; his individual play has coincided with winning basketball. Bryant is another story. Even with far superior teammates than James' former Cavs crew, Bryant has posted a minus-13 plus-minus in his 224 minutes of clutch situations. That is to say, the Lakers have, quite shockingly, been a losing team with Bryant on the floor down the stretch over the past two seasons. 在统计LBJ所有228分钟的关键时刻里，LBJ的球队净赢对手126分！ 而这也粉碎了上面怀疑LBJ枉顾球队只顾自己的说法。他的好表现 直接带给球队胜利。(按：+126真的很扯....根本不是55波了 @@） kobe则是令一个故事了。即使他有公认比LBJ之前的骑士还好的队友， 在统计kobe所有224分钟的关键时刻里，kobe的球队倒输对手13分！ 简单来说，在关键时刻里，拥有kobe在场上的湖人队在过去两季里 是属於输球的那一方！ This is a critical point. Boiling down clutch performance to six last-second shots is an extremely narrow view of the game. The circumstance happens so rarely that it is virtually a trivial exercise in randomness. To put it in perspective, Bryant and James have played a combined 7,871 minutes over the past two regular seasons, and only 17 of those minutes were played when their respective teams needed a "big shot" (tied or trailing by no more than three points with the game clock at less than 24 seconds). That's 0.02 percent of the time. 这是各重点，也就是如果我们把kobe的六次绝杀时刻算进去，这代表的 只是少之又少的状况。换句话来说吧，过去两季LBJ和kobe总共打了 7871分钟，而当中只有17分钟的时刻他们所处的球队需要绝杀球来定 胜负（绝杀定义：平手或落後三分以内的状况，时间少於24秒） 这代表的是0.02%的上场时间。 These numbers reveal James' teams haven't needed last-second heroics because his monstrous late-game play pushes the close game out of reach, rendering a game-winning shot unnecessary. Houston Rockets general manager Daryl Morey once said, "Good teams don't win close games -- they avoid them." And the player who personifies that ethos is James. 这些数字代表了LBJ的球队并不太虚要绝杀球，因为他关键时刻 怪物般的表现通常早早把比赛推到不需要绝杀球才能赢的状况。 这时候让我想到火箭队的经理的名言：「好的球队不需要赢比分 接近的比赛--他们可以避免掉这种比赛。」 而最能证明这句话的就是LBJ。 The highlight reel conundrum 高光影响 We can direct some of the blame to the construct of the highlight reel. As a game's CliffsNotes, highlight reels capture the awe-inspiring plays and dramatic game-changing events in snapshots. They give us the game-winning shot, but the rest gets tossed to the cutting-room floor. And the truth is, we don't get to see all the times a player fails in critical moments; we see only the ones when he succeeds. 造成人们这种观感的原因可说来自比赛高光的取决。通常要描述一场 比赛，高光里总是放着一些不可思议的表现或是改变比赛的刹那。 当然高光会秀出绝杀球，而其他的东西则被丢在剪接室的地上。 更关键的是，很多时候我们不会看到球员关键时刻的失败， 我们通常只看到球员关键时刻的成功。 Highlight reels, by design, help facilitate our inherent confirmation bias -- a fallacy of the human mind that causes us to remember what confirms our preconceived notions and throw out the contradictory evidence. Bryant holds the reputation as the game's most clutch player, and who are we to disagree when we see Bryant with a game winner seemingly every fifth day? No one has the time or the interest to watch all 96 of Bryant's missed field goal attempts in clutch situations since 2008-09. But those happened, and we need to account for them. 高光让我们的观感有了很多偏见--这也是人性如此，自动在脑中汰换 自己认为不对的画面，而只看自己想看的。 在这种情况下，kobe自然被塑造成绝杀球之王，因为谁有兴趣去注意 他自从08-09年来，已经投失了96次绝杀球！（按：婊很大 XD） 但是错失绝杀球的情形是有的，而我们（专业的）是需要去算他们的。 Also, there's a certain flair to Bryant's typical game winners that lends itself to immortality. We watch in anticipation as the ball leaves Bryant's fingertips on a contested perimeter jumper, which is the toughest shot in the game. But the degree of difficulty of the shot works both ways. When he hits the back-breaking shot, it is heroic. But when he misses, it is understandable. All of James' seven makes have come within 8 feet, while all nine of Bryant's makes have come outside 12 feet (he missed his only attempt inside 12 feet, a layup). 当然，kobe的绝杀球让人有错觉觉得似乎像永恒一样是有原因的。 第一，kobe的绝杀通常是在前面有人防守时的跳投，这可以说是 比赛最困难的出手，因为是最困难的，所以当他投失，人们会认为 算了，应该的。当他投进，人们则把他当英雄看待。 而LBJ过去两季的七次绝杀球都是在离篮筐8尺之内完成，而kobe的九次 绝杀则都在12尺以外（事实上所有的绝杀尝试都在12尺外，他唯一一次 在12尺内的绝杀失败了，是个上篮） So as scorers, James and Bryant have different styles, and this certainly has a dramatic effect on how we remember them as clutch players. Bryant's outside game provides better theater, whereas James' bruising attack leads to comparatively sleepy trips to the free throw line. But they provide the same means to an end. kobe和LBJ是用不同手段得分的，这也影响到人们的记忆。kobe的外围 跳投总能让人们记忆深刻，LBJ的坦克上篮则有时候换到的是让人们 兴趣缺缺的罚球。但是意义上是相同的才对。 Ultimately, Bryant and James are two all-time legends, and it seems silly to boil their greatness to a few seconds of play. While the debate between LeBron James and Kobe Bryant will never die, the clutch badge has always rested on Bryant's sleeve. Now we're seeing that it isn't quite that simple. 当然kobe和LBJ都是传奇，所以这样比较他们最後几分钟的表现 或许有点傻。只是每当kobe和LBJ孰优孰劣的辩论出来，人们似乎 总会把关键时刻表现的徽章给kobe，现在我们分析过後发现事实 没有那麽单纯。 If you want a game-winning shot, you might choose Bryant. But that happens no more than a handful of times per season. 如果你要一棵绝杀球，那你或许可以选择kobe。 但是这种情况一季也不会出现几次。 If you want a player to carry the team down the stretch in the fourth quarter, we find that James, not Bryant, boasts the winning track record in the clutch. 然而如果在关键最後几分钟的比赛，那我们发现LBJ才是王道。 ＝＝＝＝＝＝＝＝＝＝＝＝＝＝＝＝＝＝＝＝＝＝＝＝＝＝＝＝＝＝＝＝＝＝＝＝＝ 这篇文章真的是ESPN今天写的文章，不是去年或前年的 XD （虽然似曾相似 @@） --

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