Kobe just one star defying aging curve 老骥伏枥，志在千里。 http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/page2/story?page=simmons/110128&sportCat=nba By Bill Simmons ESPN.com I was there when it happened to Julius Erving: Nov. 9, 1984, Philly at Boston, the night his five-year rivalry with Larry Bird went up in smoke. Bird outscored Erving 42-6 in three quarters before words were exchanged and, incredibly, two of the league's biggest stars started fighting at midcourt. Imagine two kids getting their picture taken with Santa, then imagine their faces if Santa got into a brawl with the Easter Bunny. That was Bird fighting Erving. Their scuffle was so preposterous that it overshadowed the real story: Julius Erving had gone through The Change. He was great, and then he wasn't. And it happened overnight. 回到1984年-11月-9日，塞尔提克坐镇主场迎战费城七六人，在5年的不断较劲後， J博士和大鸟间的对抗在这晚白热化，当时拎北就在现场啊。 前三节里大鸟在得分上以42-6遥遥领先了J博士，而随着一些“言语上的问候”， 不可思议的一幕出现了，当时联盟里最耀眼的俩球星居然在中场直接缠上了。 唔，先设想一下有两个刚刚和圣诞老人合影留念的小鬼头， 然後再脑补一下圣诞老人和复活节兔子干架的场面…… 没错，大鸟和J博士当时就是那副德行。 那场闹剧是如此地惊世骇俗以至於甚至掩盖了当天的真相： J博士就是在那晚完成了他的“转型”， 前一刻他仍是最好的球员，但之後他不再是了，而这就发生在一夜之间。 Sift through NBA history and you'll notice that, for modern superstars, The Change occurred somewhere between the 900th and 1,200th career game (including playoffs) for everyone except Karl Malone and John Stockton, who fended it off because of their extraordinary work ethics, their signature play (an unstoppable pick-and-roll that they could have run into their 50s), Utah's altitude (which may have given them a conditioning advantage) and the little-known fact John Stockton is actually an alien. An NBA career is really pressure over time: knees are Shawshank's prison wall, games are Andy's rock hammer, and that hammer just keeps chipping away. Eventually, your career gives out. That's the rule. 综观NBA历史你会发现，就现今的超级球星们来说， 那个分水岭通常会在生涯第900场~1200场（包括季後赛）之间出现， 当然这是针对马龙和老史那两个家伙以外的球员们说的， 凭藉超乎寻常的理念、指标性的打法 （那种近乎无解的挡拆配合几乎可以让他们玩到50岁啊囧）、 铁血的犹他精神（这在某种程度上也给了他们在自我调节上的优势） 以及鲜为人知的一个事实： 其实老史天杀的根本是个外星人啊！他们成功地逃过了以上铁律。 但每一段NBA旅程里的艰苦都是骗不了人的：如果说膝盖是Shawshank's prison的墙， 那麽日复一日的比赛就是安迪手中的石锤，锤子经年累月地敲打着日渐脆弱的壁垒， 最终，你的生涯也就随之走到了尽头，这就是游戏规则。 (注：刺激1995的梗，一部好电影。) Or, that was the rule. Because Ray Allen, Paul Pierce, Steve Nash, Dirk Nowitzki and Kobe Bryant are fending off that rock hammer in ways that have to make us wonder if we're headed for a historical revamping along the lines of the steroids era blowing up baseball like an "Angry Birds" grenade. Everything we thought we knew about basketball is changing ... and for all the right reasons, too. (Well, unless you're Rashard Lewis and O.J. Mayo.) They are beneficiaries of undeniable advantages over everyone who played before them: better doctors, surgical procedures, dieting, drug testing, trainers, computers, video equipment, workout equipment, workout regiments, airplanes ... even pillows are better. 或者我应该说：这些“曾经是” 游戏规则。 因为雷枪、PP、飘发哥、司机以及科科等人正各出奇招的躲开那些小锤子， 几乎让我们产生职棒的类固醇事件将要历史性地全面再现的错觉， 就像“Angry Birds"似的遍地开花啊。(注：某手机游戏。) 我们固有的那些篮球理念正在改变…基於所有那些合理的理由 （唔，如果你是2000万或是O.J. Mayo，那还是当我没说好了），相较於前人， 他们正受益於更好的医疗团队以及治疗手段、合理的饮食规划、药检、训练师、 电脑技术的应用、摄影设备、训练器材、训练团队、交通工具…… 甚至连现在的枕头都比以前舒服。 Check out the career numbers (regular season and playoffs) for Allen, Pierce, Nash, Nowitzki and Bryant for games, minutes, minutes per game and seasons played. 让我们来看看雷枪、PP、Nash、司机以及科科的一些生涯资料— 总出场数、总分钟数、场均上场时间以及已打了多少年头（资料包括季赛以及季後赛）： AGING STARS 现役老骨头战队 RS Min = regular season minutes; PL Min = playoff minutes; RS MPG = regular season minutes per game; PL MPG = playoffs minutes per game RS Min = 季赛总计出场时间（分钟数）；PL Min = 季後赛总计出场时间； RS MPG = 季赛的平均上场时间；PL MPG = 季後赛的平均上场时间 Player Games Playoffs RS Min PL Min RS MPG PL MPG Seasons Bryant 1067 198 38,887 7,811 36.5 39.4 14 Allen 1067 101 39,535 3,987 37.1 39.5 15 Nash 1057 118 33,055 4,228 31.3 35.8 15 Nowitzki 956 103 34,980 4,301 36.6 41.8 12 Pierce 929 101 34,480 4,032 37.1 39.9 12 All right, get ready for a second group of perimeter stars that also includes two other pieces of information: the season they went through The Change, as well as their drop in win shares from the previous season. (Note: I'm not a huge fan of win shares, especially because the stat doesn't show how someone like Jason Kidd or Gary Payton slipped defensively almost overnight, but it's the simplest statistical way to show a player's decline.) And keep in mind, Bird's career and Magic's career ended prematurely; Jordan missed multiple seasons because of his two retirements; and Kidd is obviously still playing (post-Change). Anyway ... 让我们再来看看第二组资料，同样是针对外线球员们，多加了两栏数据： 分别是衰退开始的赛季以及相比前一季，他们的WS（胜利贡献值） 到底下降了多少 （话说其实我个人并不是很推崇所谓WS，因为这类资料其实压根无法体现诸如接生小孩、 手套这类整晚都是如何在防守端进行各种装死和卧底行动的， 但它的确是体现球员衰退的一个最直观的资料）， 另外记住这几点：大鸟和魔术都太早的结束了自己的职业生涯； 而由於那两次退休，MJ起码浪费了好几个赛季；而接生小孩当然还是“健在”的 （但他无疑已经过了那个分水岭）…… (注：Win Shares—— 胜利贡献值，除了PER以外最常被用来衡量球员表现的一项分析指 数，这个值是根据球队胜场数、每个球员的详细技术统计等诸多资料分析出的，结合了球 队战绩以及个人在球队获胜中起到的作用，分为进攻胜利贡献值(Offensive Win Shares) 和防守胜利贡献值（Defensive Win Shares）；而两者相加即为一个球员的最终胜利贡献 值。) STARS OF YESTERDAY 昨日星辰 Change = Season in which "The Change" in the player's productivity took place; WS = Decline in win shares from the previous season. Change = 此球员的产能出现明显下降是在哪个赛季。 WS = 和前一个赛季相比WS的下降值 。 Player Games Play RS Min PL Min RS MPG PL MPG Seasons Change WS Stockton 1504 182 47,674 6,398 31.8 35.8 19 14 -5.6 Miller 1389 144 47,619 5,308 34.3 36.9 18 16 -0.8 Payton 1335 154 47,417 5,482 35.3 35.6 17 13 -3.5 Erving 1243 189 45,227 7,352 36.4 38.9 16 14 -2.5 Kidd 1231 121 45,510 4,953 37.0 40.9 17 14 -3.4 Pippen 1178 208 41,069 8,105 34.9 39.0 17 12 -1.7 Drexler 1086 145 37,537 5,572 34.6 38.4 15 13 -5.2 Wilkins 1074 56 38,113 2,172 35.5 38.8 15 13 -2.1 Jordan 1072 179 41,010 7,474 38.3 41.8 15 14 -12.5 Thomas 979 111 35,516 4,216 36.3 38.0 13 12 -2.1 Iverson 914 76 37,485 3,205 41.1 45.1 14 13 -8.5 Magic 906 160 33,245 7,538 36.7 39.7 13 13 -11.8 Bird 897 164 34,443 6,886 38.4 42.0 13 10 -14.5 Translation: If you're a perimeter guy, no matter how talented you are, you should go downhill between Season 12 and Season 14 unless you're a freak shooter (like Miller) or an actual alien (like Stockton). So how do you explain our five aforementioned career freaks? Let's look at them again through last Wednesday's games measured by the per-36 minute averages for points/rebounds/assists, field goals/free throws/3s attempted, and percentages for field goals/free throws/3s, as well as advanced metrics for usage rate (the percentage of possessions which involve that player when he's on the floor), player efficiency and win shares per 48 minutes: 总结一下：只要是个外线球员，不管你是如何天赋异禀， 都该在进入到生涯的第12~14个赛季後开始走下坡，除非你是个怪物型的射手（比如神米） 或者真正的外星人（比如老史）。 好吧，那上面提到的那5个怪胎要怎麽解释呢？ 呃……让我们再来看看上周三的比赛情况，这次被列入比较的有以下这些资料： （在平均36分钟的上场时间内）得分/篮板/助攻数，投篮/罚球/3分的出手次数， 以及各自的命中率情况，除此之外还加入了USG=Usage Rate，球员效率(注：即所谓PER值) 以及每48分钟内的WS数值： (注：Usage Rate—表示的是每48分钟球员所占用的“进攻回合（possession）”次数，包 括出手次数、失误数以及助攻，简单来说，通过这个数值一般即可粗略估计一个球员在进 攻端所承担的任务有多重，换句话来说，USG数目最高的往往代表的就是所谓球队的老大) ALMOST AS GOOD AS EVER 结果显示他们几乎出色的一如往昔： http://i.imgur.com/A67fH.png (注：表格整理实在太烦了。) I know, I know. You expected a sports column, not an AP math exam. But for each player, the differences between 2008 and 2011 are so subtle, you can barely tell the years apart. If Jennifer Aniston looks as good three years from now as she does right now, you'll know she had some work done. If Obama's hair doesn't look any grayer than it does right now, you'll know he colored it. But five elite players defying all laws of career gravity like that? 安啦安啦，我知道你是来看体育专栏而不是数学讲座的。 但是你看看，他们每个人在2008年和2011年的资料都是如此接近， 之间的差距几乎细微到分辨不出。 要是3年後的Jennifer Aniston看上去和现在的她没有两样，那我们就知道她肯定整过了； 要是3年後Obama的头发比起现在一点儿也没变白，那我们就知道他肯定染过了。 但是犯的着五个超级球星商量好了一起挑战如地心引力的游戏规则至此吗？ Really, it's the first wave of something Malcolm Gladwell and I tackled 13 months ago, when we wondered if Kobe's generation would accomplish things we had never seen before. I listed those modern advantages (training, dieting, etc) and mentioned that basketball players have a better chance of succeeding now. Gladwell piggybacked the point by bringing up capitalization rates (how efficiently any group makes use of its talent), deciding that "there isn't more talent than before, but there is -- for a variety of reasons -- a more efficient use of talent." Somehow we never connected the dots to Gladwell's concept of outliers: that outside factors can affect someone's success or failure more than we realize. 没错，还真的是这样。 就在13个月前，我还和Malcolm Gladwell聊到说科科这些人， 搞不好最後将会到达我们前所未见的高度，我列出了所有那些当代的优势所在 （训练、膳食管理那些）并由此认为当下的篮球运动员们的确有更好的契机去寻求成功， Gladwell进一步结合资本化比率的概念（如何有效地运用所拥有的天赋）得出结论说： 并不是天赋本身更胜从前了，但基於多种的理由，对天赋、才华的利用率的确提高了。 但不知怎麽的，我俩当时都没把这些看法和Galdwell关於异类的定义联系起来，也就是： 事实上所有的外部因素对於一个人 的成功/失败有着远比我们所认为的更大的影响力。 (注：Malcolm Gladwell——知名作家，着有《Outliers:The Story of Sucess 》等书。) Nash, Pierce, Kobe, Allen and Nowitzki? NBA outliers. All of them. Their extended primes might last 15-20 percent longer than anything we've seen from a perimeter player before. A closer look: Nash、PP、KB、Ray还有Dirk？就是NBA里的所谓的异数，这5个家伙都是。 比之我们所看过的所有的那些家伙还异常。 他们把自己的巅峰期延长了大约15%~20%左右，现在我们一个一个来看： Nash: He's already the career free throw percentage leader (and along with Mark Price, one of two players over 90 percent). He should be able to leapfrog GP, Isiah, Oscar and Magic on the career assists chart and settle at No. 3 (behind Stockton and Kidd). And if he bumps his career field goal percentage from 49.1 percent to 49.5 percent, he could retire as a virtual 50-40-90 guy. 飘发哥：现在的他已经是生涯罚球命中率的第一人了（和Mark Price并列为命中率过9成 的两人之一），他还有望超过手套、Isiah、大O以及Magic位列历史助攻榜的第三名 （仅次於老史和接生小孩）。 而且他还把自己的生涯投篮命中率从49.1%提高到了49.5%， 很有希望成为拿着50-40-90亮眼成绩单[注：即投篮命中率=50%、三分球命中率=40%、 罚球命中率=90%]退休的家伙之一。 Twenty years ago, Nash's troublesome back would have derailed his career much like Tim Hardaway, Kevin Johnson and Mark Price were betrayed by their bodies. No more. In 2011, if you take care of your body, your body will take care of you. When Steve Nash turns 38 next month, he will be playing point guard at a level that nobody 35 years old has played it. Unless, of course, he snaps because his bosses blew up a Western Conference finalist and saddled him with Vince Carter (the one guy in the league who represents everything that Nash is metaphorically against), then either retires or hires Robert Horry to repeatedly body-block him into a scorer's table until his back gives out. 要是在20年前，飘发哥那种倒楣透了的背伤很可能会让他的生涯像Hardway、Kevin Johnson或是Mark Price一样郁郁而终。 但那是过去了，在当下的2011年，只要你能小心呵护自己的身体， 它也会反过来回报你的。到下个月飘发哥就将年满38岁了，作为控卫， 他将打出的会是任何35岁的人都从未能接近的水准。 除非他们球队老板脑包并决定一手拆散现在的准西区冠军阵容把他和卡特 （可说是联盟里和Nash彻底相反的一位）打包一起卖掉，如果真这麽悲剧的话， 那麽大概他也只好退休或是把自己的背拼到极限。 Pierce: This has been his "Linda Hamilton in 'Terminator 2'" season -- he showed up in spectacular shape and swayed his Hall of Fame chances. With Pierce's shooting touch, high basketball IQ and herky-jerky half-court game, I see him playing at this level for two more seasons after this one, followed by a three-year drop-off and retirement ... and if it plays out that way, he's a serious threat to retire with 27,500 points (moving him into the top nine all time) and official John Havlicek 2.0 status. It's true. Insert "lame joke from a Lakers fan saying that Springfield needs to get the wheelchair ready" here. PP34：本季最像他的应该是《Terminator 2》里的Linda Hamilto — 晃着他那保持得当的身形里并且还有再创辉煌的机会。 结合他的投篮手感、极高的篮球智商以及捉摸不定的半场进攻， 我预计他将会在本赛季之後继续保持这种状态两季，然後是急速下滑的3年最後退休…… 如果真被我说中的话，他将很有机会在退休时带着27，500分的生涯得分， 以及NBA历史得分第九人的头衔，以及公认的新名号：John Havlicek-2.0升级版， 千真万确。 套一句湖迷的无厘头搞笑语录：Springfield需要先准备好轮椅和脚踏车。之类的结尾吧。 (注：Linda Hamilton—在《Terminator 2》里饰演Sarah Connor，强悍的英雄老妈角色) Allen: I hope you enjoyed the "Reggie Miller versus Ray Allen" debate. It's been over for a year. Right now, Ray ranks second in 3-pointers made (2,543, just 17 behind Reggie; nobody else is within 800 of them) and second in 3s attempted (6,388), only he's made 40 percent of them (one of 40 players who can say that). He's also the fourth-best free throw shooter ever (89.4 percent). Given his phenomenal work ethic, we can safely say 25,000 points, 3,000 made 3s and a 45-40-90 career percentages are in play. I just don't think we're seeing that again. His extended prime made him the most efficient shooting guard who ever lived; throw in his clutch shooting numbers (see sidebar) and it's been a wildly underrated career. 雷枪：Ray 啊，对於神米vs雷枪的三分球纪录你是不是有在期待呢？我希望是，好吧， 这事情已经被说了有一年了，截止到现在(注：当然大家都知道雷枪已经超车了。)， Ray仍是命中三分球第二多的 （2543个，仅仅落後神米17个， 而其他人离得最近的都差了他们800个），他的三分出手次数亦是第二多（6388次）， 命中率达到4成（40个待评者中唯一一个做到的）， 同时他还是历史第四好的罚球球员（命中率：89.4%）。 考虑到他目前出色的状态，我们可以很负责任地说生涯得分达到25，000分、 命中3000个三分球、生涯命中率45-40-90基本是跑不掉了。 我只是不知道如此荣景我们还会不会再看到， 延长的巅峰期使他成为了有史以来效率最佳的SG。 Other than Reggie, you know who the biggest loser is here? Sam Presti, who made a totally defensible trade when he was rebuilding Seattle around Kevin Durant in 2007 (Allen and the rights to Glen Davis for the rights to Jeff Green, Delonte West and Wally Szczerbiak's expiring contract) and never imagined he was giving up five or six more killer Ray Allen seasons. I can't wait for the "40 for 40" documentary about the 2007 draft in 10 years. 除了神米，知道还有谁也哭哭了吗？Sam Presti(注：雷霆GM)，当他在2007年放弃雷枪， 用他加上Glen Davis换来Jeff Green、Delonte West以及合同到期的Wally Szczerbiak， 他绝对不会想到他放弃的是未来5年甚至6年的Ray-杀手-Allen。 我都等不及看未来10年他们07年"40 for 40"方案的成果了。 Nowitzki: I can't decide if he's moving into the Barkley/Malone discussion (for best modern power forward not named Tim Duncan or Larry Bird) or the Larry Bird/Rick Barry discussion (for best offensive forward ever), but there's definitely been some moving. It's a junior version of the Kobe/Michael thing: Nowitzki's peak can't come close to matching Bird's peak, but his freaky consistency and legendary summer work ethic makes a Bird/Nowitzki career comparison closer than you'd think. 司机：我不知道他是不是打算跑去巴克利/马龙之争里掺上一咖什麽的。 （除了TD/大鸟之外的最佳前锋），但这的确值得考量一下，就像Kobe/MJ之争的初阶版： 虽然司机可能永远无法达到巴克利曾经的巅峰状态，但凭藉超乎寻常的持久、 为人称道的暑期私自努力，使得大鸟/司机的生涯比较这类东西几乎已经呼之欲出了。 For 11 straight seasons, he's been the best player on a contender. Grab any Dirk season from 2001 to 2011 and it will look something close to his career numbers (22.6 PPG, 8.3 RPG, 48 percent FG, 38 percent 3FG, 88 percent FT, 23.8 PER, 0.213 WS/48, 27.0 usage rate, 58.1 true shooting). And he hasn't slipped even a little. I asked ESPN's Marc Stein, the Gayle to Dirk's Oprah, whether 2011 Dirk looks any different than 2001 Dirk or 2007 Dirk. His response: "He's a little creakier, but it's not like his first step was ever the key to his game. He's shooting the ball as well as he ever has. He's like a surgeon now, he just carves up anything you throw at him. [Erik] Spoelstra told me that, too -- he said the stuff [Miami] did in 2006 just doesn't work anymore." 连续11个赛季，他一直都是最佳球员的有力竞争者，从2001~2011间随便挑一个赛季， 他的表现都一如既往的稳定且相当接近生涯平均数据 （22.6分、8.3个篮板、48%的投篮命中率、38%的三分球命中率、88%的罚球命中率、 23.8的效率、每48分钟的 WS=0.213、USG=27以及58.1%的实际命中率） 而且他看起来一点都没有下滑，我曾询问ESPN的Marc Stein， 比起2001年或是2007年的他，2011版的司机看起来有啥不同吗？他的回答是： “看得出有点儿老态了，但那没啥大不了的，他从来不是靠第一步过人吃饭的不是吗， 他的投篮和从前一样好，就像个外科医生一样， 现在的他会把所有扔到他面前的东西统统切碎。" Erik[注：热火教练]亦有同感，他曾告诉我： 06年时我们用来对付他的招数现在已经无法奏效了。” Quick tangent: For whatever reason, basketball fans don't care about career NBA numbers like baseball fans care about baseball numbers. I see four reasons for this: (1) baseball has been around almost twice as long as basketball; (2) baseball's signature threshold numbers are famously identifiable (500, 3,000 and 300), as are the players who broke its major records, whereas your average sports fan would struggle to answer questions like "Who leads the NBA in career scoring?"; (3) statistics matter more in baseball because it's an individual sport; and (4) we need to throw ourselves into baseball statistics because the sport itself is so f------ boring. If we were eating lunch and I told you, "Johnny Damon has 2,571 hits right now," that would mean something to you. If you're a true baseball fan, you would process that information in 0.008 seconds and think, "He needs 429 for 3,000, that's doable!" But if I told you "Dirk Nowitzki has 21,925 points right now," you wouldn't think anything other than, "That's a lot." 跑个题：不知道为啥，篮球迷们其实不怎麽在意生涯数据， 不像棒球迷那样对此斤斤计较，我估计原因有四： 1、棒球有着更为悠久的历史，几乎是篮球历史的2倍。 2、棒球的标志性门槛资料更为人所知（像500，3000，300这类的。） 3、相比篮球，资料统计在棒球上更有参考价值，因为更倾向於“个人表现” 。 4、我们需要让自己去关注那些资料，因为棒球这玩意儿本身实在是TMD有够无聊。 (注：这是作者说的，我只是照翻。) 如果我俩正吃着午餐，然後我告诉你说： “Johnny Damon已经累计打出2571支安打了。”你能知道我在说啥， 而且如果你是个真正的棒球迷的话，甚至要不了0.008秒你就会想： “哇靠，再来429支就满3000支安打了耶，就快达到了勒。” 但如果我告诉你说：“司机目前生涯总分已经有21，925分了，” 除了：“哇喔~听起来还真多分的阿”以外，你还能做什麽反应吗？ Well, only 19 players have ever topped 25,000 points. Only 10 players (I'm including Kobe, who will get it next week) have topped 27,000. Only five players have topped 30,000. Only two (Kareem and Mailman) have topped 32,500. And then there's Dirk, who should be close to 23,000 by the end of this season and grinding out 1,700-1,900 points for at least three after that ... and we haven't even covered the final phase of his career, his late 30s, when he hangs on for an extra four years as the greatest version of Sam Perkins ever. Barring injury, we'll have our first foreign-born player in the 30,000 Point Club. Throw in longevity, durability and eye-popping shooting percentages (for his career, he's a 48-38-88 guy right now) and suddenly we're talking about one of the best 15-18 players ever and the best foreign-born player other than Hakeem. Pretty high stakes. Twenty years ago? He'd already be in the Fat Sam Perkins stage. With equally horrible hair. 顺便说一下，能拿到25000分以上的目前也就19个人而已， 而能超过27000分的更是只有10人（我把Kobe也算上了，他应该会在下周突破这个数字）， 能超过30000分的只有5人，而超过32500分的只有两枚（天勾和邮差）， 那麽司机现在在哪儿呢？不出意外的话他将会在本赛季结束时来到23000分左右， 然後在接下来的至少3年里再添个1700~1900分……我们甚至还没说到他的生涯末期呢， 要是他能学学Sam Perkins再坚持个4 年什麽的，只要没有伤病影响， 我们将有机会看到第一个进入3万分俱乐部的外籍球员。 考虑到他持久、稳定且令人吃惊的命中率（生涯迄今：48-38-88）， 我们在这里说的这位将位列史上最好球员第15~18名。 而且可能是除了大梦之外最好的外籍球员。Wow，这定位可真的不低了， 但要摆在20年前，他也许就是个发福版的Sam Perkins配上逊到掉渣的发型。 Last footnote on Dirk: With advanced metrics slowly taking over basketball for better and worse, Dirk should be one of the big retroactive winners historically, a little like how the sneaky-great Tim Raines dropped the "sneaky" about two years and 550 homicidally impassioned pro-Raines sabermetric essays ago. I was there for Dirk, and I was there for Bird. It's no contest. (These three YouTube clips explain everything: "Why You Don't Mess With Larry Bird," "Larry Bird 47 Points vs. Portland (the Left-handed Game)" and "Larry Bird Greatest Passer of All-Time.") But Nowitzki's PER, win shares and true shooting percentages are better, and as long as you throw out MVPs, titles and overall impact, and you skew longevity, you can make a great case that Dirk Nowitzki was better than Larry Bird. I will now light my game-worn Bird jersey on fire with me in it. 关於司机的最後注脚：随着那些统计手段的不断进化（or退化），从历史角度来说， 司机将很可能会是被受益方的一员，有点儿类似Tim Raine那些奇怪的荣誉。 我当然是支持司机的，同样我也支持大鸟，这之间其实压根不存在什麽竞争啊！ （这3个YouTube剪辑就足以说明一切了： “为什麽叫你绝对不要惹大鸟”、 “大鸟47分血洗波特兰（左手之战）” “大鸟：史上最佳传球者”），(注：连结点原文。) 尽管司机的PER、WS以及实际命中率可能都更好看，但就算撇开所有那些MVP头衔、 总冠军数以及影响力，你也绝对没办法歪曲说司机比大鸟更伟大， 要是你真有这麽狠的话，我现在就穿着大鸟在比赛中穿过的球衣点火烧自己。 (注：Tim Raine—职棒大联盟过去的明星左外野手，但却由於明显的短板（长打）等原因 迟迟未能进入名人堂，其实放在这里是用作影射“过誉”的球员。) Bryant: Not much at stake historically other than MJ's six rings, Kareem's scoring record, Magic's "Greatest Laker Ever" title and Jordan's undisputed title as the GOAT. You know, just the usual stuff. Even with some subtle signs of slippage -- specifically, his 3-point accuracy and his willingness/ability to get to the line, both reflections of an ailing right knee -- when I caught him in person on Tuesday night (the Utah blowout), it looked like the same Old New Kobe to me: he scored 21 points in 26 minutes, controlled the game and even shifted into Eff You Mode once (when Raja Bell angered him in the third quarter, prompting Kobe to demand the ball and then shoot a gorgeous 12-foot turnaround in his mug). 科科：MJ的六戒、天钩的得分记录、魔术的“史上最佳湖人”之誉， 以及MJ无可辩驳的“篮球之神”头衔…你知道的，还能有些啥呢， 历史上还能被他视作追逐目标的也就剩下这几个了吧。 虽然的确有些细微的衰退迹象—说的更准确点，他的三分球准度、获得罚球的次数还有在 罚球线上的准度—显然这两者都是因为他那状况不佳的右膝—尽管如此，当我周二晚上（ “爵士之夜”）在私底下逮住他的时候，他看起来还是那个活蹦乱跳的小科科啊： 他只用了26分钟就拿下21分，控制着比赛节奏甚至还开启了“别挡路之快给老子闪开” 模式一次。 （当Bell在第三节里激怒了他， 他随即要球并藉着一记12尺翻身跳投丢在Raja的头上进球。）。 He's gone from being a breakaway running back to being one of those guys who grinds out 4.4 yards a carry. Keep the chains moving. That's all he does now. It's like he calculated exactly how many jumps his knees had left, put his last 435 or so quality bursts in reserve like Vin Diesel's nitrous canister in a "Fast and Furious" movie, then vowed never to break one out unless he absolutely needed it. On a breakaway in the third quarter on Tuesday, with fans screaming for a dunk, Kobe jumped off two feet and gingerly shoved the ball through the rim. Sorry, everybody. You can't waste that nitrous canister switch in a blowout. 现在的他更多地会像其他那些人一样选择在4.4码（注：约等於12尺）处跳投， 而不再是一味寻求摆脱对手。 看上去就像是他精确地计算出了自己膝盖还能承受的跳跃次数， 然後就像Vin Diesel在电影《Fast and Furious》里做的那样， 把剩下的435次或是几次额度小心收好，然後不到关键时刻绝不轻易使出来。 周二第三节里的这幕就是如此，在摆脱防守之後虽然球迷们都尖叫着要求： “灌一个！”科科最终还是选择跳了大概2英尺然後把球轻松放进。 抱歉了各位，在如此大胜的夜晚怎能随便放大招啊，这不是浪费吗~？ (注：Fast and Furious——《玩命关头》，讲述公路飙车的系列电影， Vin Diesel在片中饰演的是一位黑帮老大。) Maybe he'll never soar through the air like he once did, and maybe he no longer has the luxury of saying, "We need a basket -- I think I'll just beat my guy off the dribble, get into the paint and beat their big guys to the rim" like you or I would decide to go grocery shopping. But Kobe's arsenal of Jedi Mind Trick upfakes, stutter-steps, spin moves and start-and-stops rivals everything Jordan had. He brings it every quarter and every play, much like Jordan did, which is the highest compliment you can give somebody. And he knows Gasol, Fisher, Odom and Bynum so well by now that, as crazy as it sounds, Kobe's chemistry with his teammates might be his single best asset. 也许他不再能像过去那样无视引力般的飞翔， 也许他无法再轻描淡写的说着打爆对手内线的豪语， 好比你我之流说要去便利商店买罐饮料什麽的， 但科科军械库里的那些JediMind Trick式的精妙假动作、垫步变速、转身过人， 启动-急停都和MJ曾有的那些如出一辙，每一节、每一场他不断献上这些演出， 就像MJ曾经做过的那样，这几乎可说是你所能给出的最高的赞誉。 而且现在的他是如此的了解Gasol、Fisher、Odom和Bynum，了解他们每一个人， 这就像听起来地一样疯狂， 但和队友们间的化学反应或许可算是他此刻手上最好的加成。 You could say he's delivering nearly the same production as before, just in a slightly different way: a less dominant version of Jordan's final Chicago season. For All-Star Weekend next month, NBA.com is creating highlight reels from every Kobe season since 1997; these sneak peeks from 1998 (his second season, when he had Griffin-like ups) and 2005 (his athletic prime) illustrate how much his game has changed over the years. Kobe 1.0 relied on phenomenal athletic ability alone. Kobe 2.0 blended that athletic ability with a scorer's mentality. Kobe 3.0 was basically Kobe 2.0 with better teammates and a better attitude. Now we're watching Kobe 4.0, someone who should be slipping ... only he wouldn't let it happen. 可以这麽说吧，他献上的作品一如既往，只是制作方法稍有不同： 有那麽点儿像MJ在芝加哥的最後一季。 为了之後的全明星赛，NBA.com正在赶工制作科科自1997年以来的精彩集锦； 从1998年（他的第二季，那时的他跳得就像干篮哥那麽高） 到2005年（他个人运动生涯的巅峰之作）， 所有那些点点滴滴清楚地展示了这些年来他的打法历经了多大的调整和改变。 如果说： Kobe 1.0蕴含的是作为一名运动员的惊人天赋及能力； Kobe 2.0则把这些天赋以得分能力的形式展现得淋漓尽致、浑然天成； Kobe 3.0基本上就是2.0版加上更好的队友以及更优的心态； 我们现在看到的是Kobe 4.0，虽然照理说是该老化了……但对於他显然不适用， 他才不会允许那种事情发生呢。 Of course, if you believe what Kobe told Peter Vecsey last week in a rare interview, his body is starting to break down. Kobe admitted that he didn't practice for the first two months of the season and "has very little cartilage under his right kneecap, it's basically bone on bone." Hmmmmmm. Could there be some gamesmanship there? Why would Kobe -- the guy who kept everything under wraps for so many years, the guy who tried to pretend last spring that beating Boston didn't matter because he didn't want to show any signs of weakness -- suddenly be admitting his mortality and pulling the Fred Sanford Memorial "Look Out Elizabeth, I'm Coming To Join You!" routine? 当然啦，如果你相信他上周在少见的采访中告诉Peter Vecsey的那些， 什麽他的体能已经开始不行了。 他还承认自己在过去的两个月里都没参加训练因为 “右膝髌骨下面的软骨已经所剩无几，现在基本上就是骨头撞骨头了。” 唔……有没有可能这是某种烟雾弹？ 但是为啥像科科这样一个： —多年来总把一切都藏在心底鲜少吐露， 而且就在去年春天还嘴硬说打赢赛队并没有特殊意义这类， 仅仅为了不暴露任何可能的脆弱的人—会坦白？ 他突然转性啦？ Whatever his shelf life looks like, one thing's for sure: We've never seen anyone do this before. No perimeter player has ever made first- or second-team All-NBA after passing the 1,200-game mark; Kobe will almost definitely do it this year. He's going to hit 27,000 points next week in a season in which he passed Oscar, 'Nique, Ice, Hondo and (this weekend) Hakeem on the list. And he's fighting off The Change like nobody since Karl Malone. 不管他的保存期限还有多久，可以确定的一点是： 我们从没看过有人能做到他现在做到的。 从来没有哪个外线球员能在打了超过1200场比赛後依然可以跻身联盟第一线， （即使第二线也没人做到过）；没意外的话，科科今年就能填补这个空白。 下周他就将要跨过27000分的门槛，本赛季至今他已经超过了大O还有大梦 （就在这个周末），他也在继续为了“谢绝转型”而奋斗， 而这在马龙之後还从来没有别人做到过。 Full confession: I never liked Kobe. (Crap, you knew that. I forgot.) But it's tough watching any great player go through The Change. Especially in basketball, the most naked of our professional sports: Just 10 players wearing sleeveless jerseys and shorts, with fans sitting as close as three feet away and devouring every expression, every nuance, every move, everything. When a baseball player slips, we give him the benefit of the doubt: Maybe it's a slump, maybe it's his catcher, maybe his arm is bothering him, maybe he's playing in the wrong ballpark ... you could never definitively say, "Write that guy off." Same for a football player: Maybe his quarterback sucks, maybe his hammy is bothering him, maybe it's the offense, maybe it's the system, maybe it's his offensive line, maybe it's his coach. We realize after the fact football players are washed up, or right at the very end. In basketball, you know right away. 跟你说真的：我从来不喜欢Kobe（科科，我忘了你早就知道了。）， 但看着伟大的球员跨过那个分水岭总是让人难受的，不管那是谁。 尤其是篮球，这可是竞技体育里穿得最清凉的一群啊： 10个只穿着无袖球衣加短裤的家伙，而球迷们就坐在三英尺外，每一个表情、 每一个细微的动作、每一次移动、所有的一切都无所遁形。 当一个棒球选手下滑的时候，我们往往不吝於给予以下这些合理怀疑：也许只是低潮期、 也许是捕手的问题、也许他的手臂不太舒服、也许只是他和这个球场气场不合… 你永远不会这麽说：“把那家伙报废算了”， 还有美式足球选手也是这样：也许是他们的四分卫太废了，也许他的大腿有点不适、 也许是进攻问题，我们往往在他们死在沙滩上的那刻才发现原来已经後浪推前浪了。 但在篮球场上，你瞬间就能洞悉一切。 I thought that day was coming for Kobe Bryant. He had other ideas. So did Nash, Pierce, Nowitzki and Allen. Everything we ever thought we knew about basketball is being rewritten. Twelve-year primes are going to stretch to 15. Fifteen-year careers are going to stretch past 20. The 20,000 Point Club will become the 30,000 Point Club. It's not just that records will be made and stretched, or that we'll be seeing things we've never seen before. For the first time, basketball records might actually start mattering beyond "100 points," "72 wins," "33 straight," "11 rings" and "However Many Points Kareem Ended Up With." 我曾以为科科的“大限那天”已经到了，结果看来显然还没… 当然不是科科一个人打了我的脸，还有飘发哥、雷枪、PP和司机，他们都是同一挂的。 我们对於篮球的一切旧识都在被重新书写，12年的黄金期延长到了15年； 15年的生涯延长到了20年；2万分俱乐部成了3万分俱乐部， 不仅仅是所有那些记录的创造和超越，我们正见证着那些前所未见的东西 一 成为现实。 而这也许会是第一次， 篮球记录本身会比“100分”、“72胜”、“33连胜”、“11戒”以及 “不管贾霸能拿到多少分”那些荣耀更加的意义非凡。 And if you want to think about something truly frightening, consider the following four things ... 最後，如果你想看些惊悚的玩意儿好提提神，考虑一下以下这4条…… 1. LeBron James passed 16,000 points a few weeks ago. It took him fewer than 600 games. 1.几周前，LBJ刚拿到了生涯的16000分，而且只花了大概600场不到。 2. Barring injury and a prolonged lockout, by the end of his 10th season (2012-13), LeBron should be sitting at 22,000 points. 2.如果没什麽伤病或是长期待业的话，在他的第十个赛季结束时（2012-13赛季）， 他将会手持22000分。 3. If LeBron plays the next seven and a half seasons 85 percent as well as he played the previous seven and a half seasons, he'll be sitting at 30,000 points, 7,500 assists and 7,500 rebounds ... and he'll be 33 years old. A few months older than Kobe right now. 3.如果在未来的7个半赛季里，他能打出前7.5个赛季的85%的水准， 那麽当他打完15年时，他应该能拿到30000分、7500助攻、7500个篮板…… 到时候他33岁，只比现在的Kobe再老上几个月。 4. Like it or not, we are all going to be witnesses. 4. 不管你喜不喜欢，我们都将会见证这一切。 -- 我再也不翻这家伙的文，有够难。 -- █ 洛城 ◢◣ ███◣ 浪子 Los Angeles Boys ★ █ ★ ◢██◣ ★ █ █ ◥█ █φlin798183 ◤ █ █ ██ ◤ ██◤ █ █ ██◤ ◢ ◢◣ █◤◢█ ◢◣ ◤ █◣ █ ◢ ██◤ ◥ █ ◥ ◥◤ █ █ ◥◤ ◢ █ ◤ █ ◢ ◥█ ███◣ ◥ ◤ ███◤ ◢██ ◥██ ◢█◤ --

※ 发信站: 批踢踢实业坊(ptt.cc) ◆ From: 140.113.123.33 ※ 编辑: LABOYS 来自: 140.113.123.33 (02/25 01:22)