节录自 http://www.hoopsworld.com/article_6819.shtml Kobe Bryant's Future By Eric (emplay) Pincus for HOOPSWORLD.com Jan 16, 2004, 07:30 Email this article The big conversation piece this season is the future of Kobe Bryant as a Laker. Kobe has a player option on his contract that would end his contract with the team. He has long since announced that he is likely to exercise the option that would make him a free agent and could possibly lead to the end of his career as a Laker. As a free agent, the Lakers would own Kobe’s Bird Rights which gives them the opportunity to offer him the maximum contract. Other teams would need to be under the salary cap to offer Kobe a big deal . . . and those teams are few and far between. Nevertheless there are a few and they will no doubt make a run at the three time NBA champion. Another factor to consider is the state of the current collective bargaining agreement (CBA). The NBA picked up their option to extend the CBA through the end of next season. The current rules will be in effect for the upcoming 2004/5 season. The following free agent period will be under a new agreement which will likely include a number of significant changes. There has been talk of limited the length of contracts to five years, eradicating the luxury tax and increasing the maximum and minimum salary amounts. There will be a lot of negotiation before the agreement is hashed out. It’s possible that Kobe wants to be under a new, long term contract before the new CBA goes into effect. If he decided not to opt out, his contract would expire in 2005 and he would be subject to the bylaws of the new agreement. Finally, his legal battles will play a factor as the possibility of life in prison may deter interest from some teams . . . or at least complicate it. Here’s a look at the numbers . . . with thanks for some invaluable help to CBA guru, Larry Coon. If Kobe were to opt out and resign with the Lakers, he would get 105% of his current salary which is $13.5 mil for the current season. The Lakers could offer him a 7 year deal with 12.5% raises each season: 04-05 $14,175,000 05-06 $15,946,875 06-07 $17,718,750 07-08 $19,490,625 08-09 $21,262,500 09-10 $23,034,375 10-11 $24,806,250 ----------- $136,434,375 or $19,490,625 per season. By opting out, he would actually get about $450K less in the 2004/5 season. If Kobe were to sign with a different team, he would be able to receive a 6 year deal with 10% raises each season: 04-05 $14,175,000 05-06 $15,592,500 06-07 $17,010,750 07-08 $18,427,500 08-09 $19,845,000 09-10 $21,262,500 ----------- $106,312,500 or $17,718,750 per season. That’s a difference of almost $30 mil or $1.8 mil per season. Financially it would appear that Kobe would profit most by staying with the Lakers. He would be able to lock himself in with the highest dollar figure and the longest duration. With his endorsements drastically reduced because of his legal problems, the extra $30 mil will be hard to turn away from. Here are the numbers if Kobe decided not to opt out and decides to remain with the Lakers.. I’ll assume the new CBA includes the same 12.5% raises with a maximum of five years: 04-05 $14,625,000 (the last year on his existing contract) 05-06 $15,356,250 06-07 $17,275,781 07-08 $19,195,313 08-09 $21,114,844 09-10 $23,034,375 ----------- $110,601,563 or $18,433,594 per season. It’s possible that the CBA will have a different raise structure but it will be impossible to predict its exact specifications by the time Kobe will have to make a decision. If Bryant to defect to a different team after he finishes his Laker contract, the numbers would change once again. Assuming the new CBA is in effect with 5 year maximum contracts and 10% raises: 04-05 $14,625,000 (the last year on his existing contract) 05-06 $15,356,250 06-07 $16,891,875 07-08 $18,427,500 08-09 $19,963,125 09-10 $21,498,750 ----------- $106,762,500 or $17,793,750 per season. By not opting out, Kobe would be possibly reducing his maximum contract and per season average assuming the new CBA has the 5 year maximum which appears likely. The point being that whatever the NBA and player’s union hash out, it’s an uncertainty. When it comes to millions of dollars, it’s better to play conservatively. Fear not Laker fans, Kobe’s apparent decision to opt out of his contract is just good business sense. Were he to leave the Lakers, he would leave behind $30 mil. Just as Jason Kidd, Tim Duncan and Chris Webber decided to stay with their existing team . . . Kobe is likely to do the same. The NBA is a business and with the uncertainty of life it’s important to have as much guaranteed money as possible. There is one caveat. Although Kobe would make less gross dollars away from the Lakers, different states have different tax rates and cost of living standards that might offset the salary difference. That’s a bit hard to compute, but it could come in to play in the final decision. It depends which teams get below the cap enough to offer Kobe the max. Which of those teams actually do decide to go forward with the offer with the uncertainty of Bryant’s trial which will likely linger on until possibly the next pre- season. There are other options for Kobe including accepting lower dollar amounts, shorter contracts, etc. None of which offer the maximum financial reward. Kobe could threaten to leave the Lakers with a contract offer from another team in order to force LA to sign and trade him to another team. By using the sign and trade mechanism, Bryant would get the same money and years that Los Angeles has to offer. The advantage to the Lakers would be getting players back for Kobe rather than letting him leave for nothing. Such moves are rare and complicated but have been known to happen from time to time. With the most money in LA, why would Kobe ever want to settle for less? Perhaps he wants to step out of the shadow of Shaquille O’Neal. Despite Bryant’s huge contribution, the Finals’ MVP went to Shaq three years in a row. If you believe in the Kobe/Shaq feud, he may forsake the money for the opportunity to be in a happier situation. Money isn’t everything and he may want to go play in another state for the fresh start. Although Phil Jackson may be the greatest coach of all time, Bryant may feel restricted by the triangle offense. Kobe may feel that he has more to offer and that the future in Los Angeles is a dead end. Kobe is a very strong willed individual. What his decision will be is hard to say, but people go where the money is. Will Kobe be an exception to the rule? Only time will tell. --

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