※ [本文转录自 NBA 看板 #1Fro3X2J ] 作者: cody7052 (Sunrise) 看板: NBA 标题: [外絮] The top 10 restricted free agents 时间: Tue Jun 12 18:58:37 2012 来源: http://ppt.cc/JvNn 内容: The top 10 restricted free agents 十大受限自由球员 (包含林书豪在内) By Chris Bernucca Today, we look at the top 10 restricted free agents, which is a little trickier. By and large, restricted free agents are all on their rookie contract, which provides guaranteed money that can establish the starting point for negotiations. And that’s where it gets tricky. JaVale McGee made $2.46 million this season and has a qualifying offer for $3.49 million next season. Both figures are well below what starting centers receive. But how high do the Denver Nuggets go to keep him? Do the Nuggets offer McGee the $60 million over five years that Chicago gave Joakim Noah? Or do they offer an equivalent to the $8.3 million annually given to Anderson Varejao? Or do they let another team set the market, then decide whether or not to match? 今天，我们来看看10大受限自由球员，这稍微更复杂一些。 由於大多数受限制自由球员都还处在他们的新秀合约中， 他们的薪水是受保障的，这会建立谈判的起点。 正是如此，情况才会更加复杂。 JaVale McGee 本赛季的薪水是246万美元， 他下个赛季能够得到349万美元的报价。 这两个数字都比一个先发中锋的薪水要低。 但是丹佛金块队愿意花多少来留下他呢？ 丹佛金块队会给 JaVale McGee 提供 像芝加哥公牛队给 Joakim Noah 的5年6000万那样的合约吗？ 还是会给他等同於 Anderson Varejao 每年约830万的薪水？ 还是会让其他的球队提供报价，然後决定是否支付相同报价吗？ McGee is just 24 and has displayed both erratic play and behavior, which also is a factor when investing in your team’s future. No one wants to give $50 million to a knucklehead. Many of these guys should remain with their current teams, who can give them more money and exceed the cap to retain them. But you never know when a team with cap room that is desperate to improve will overpay to get the player they want. Here is a rundown on the top 10, with five more to watch. JaVale McGee 才24岁，他显示了自己不稳定的比赛和表现， 而这一点正是球队在投资未来时需要考虑的因素。 没人会想把5000万花在一个“蠢蛋”身上。 很多这些受限制球员会留在他们现在的球队中， 因为球队会给他们更多的薪资并超过工资帽来留下他们。 但是你永远也不知道一支工资帽急需提升的队伍是否愿意花大价钱留下他们想要的球员。 这里是10大球员的名单，另外还有5个有待观察的球员。 1. Eric Gordon : You have to love his spirit, coming back to play seven games in a lost season when he could have tapped out and showing flashes of the 22.3 points he averaged a season ago with the Clippers. But he has missed 100-plus games over the last three years and still knows very little about winning in the NBA — although he was a key player for Team USA at the 2010 World Championship, beating out Stephen Curry as the team’s go-to shooter. DESTINATION: Having the top pick certainly helps the Hornets, who have said they want another team to set the market for Gordon. That could be dangerous with about a half-dozen teams interested, including the Pacers in his home state of Indiana. THE RIGHT PRICE: Four years, $50 million. 1. Eric Gordon： 你必须欣赏他的奋战精神。 他大可以作壁上观，并且告诉人们他一年前在快艇每场平均得到22.3分。 但是他在一个失败的赛季末端回归并出战了7场比赛。 但是他在过去的三年内缺席了超过100场比赛，并且对如何在NBA获胜知之甚少－－ 即使他在2010世锦赛上的美国队中作用关键，击败 Stephen Curry 成为球队的投篮首选。 未来去向预测： 虽然状元签会给黄蜂带来巨大帮助， 黄蜂说过要让其他球队来报价 Eric Gordon 。 这很危险，因为大概有6支球队会对他感兴趣， 包括 Eric Gordon 家乡:印第安纳溜马队。 合适的价格：4年5000万。 2. Ryan Anderson : The NBA’s Most Improved Player (even though he wasn’t) isn’t going to be a part of any Dwight Howard trade because he is the only young stud the Magic have. His offensive effectiveness was greatly enhanced by Howard’s presence, so Orlando’s GM – whomever that ends up being – has to be smart about what pieces he puts around Anderson. DESTINATION: Hard to see him going anywhere else. THE RIGHT PRICE: Four years, $45 million. The Magic cannot max him out, because it will set the market for other good but not great players on their roster. 2. Ryan Anderson： 本年度的联盟最佳进步奖得主（虽然他并不是进步最快的） 不会被卷入到 Dwight Howard 的交易中去，因为他是魔术队仅剩的年轻猛男了。 他的进攻影响力在 Dwight Howard 在场的时候得到了极大的提升。 所以，魔术的总经理－－不论谁担任此职务－－都必须好好考虑Ryan Anderson值多少钱。 未来去向预测：很可能留在魔术。 合适的价格：4年4500万。 魔术不会给他顶薪，因为这会让球队其他够好但不算顶尖的球员漫天要价。 3. Nicolas Batum: He was a reserve when unsuccessfully negotiating an extension, and there was some bad blood. His agent said, “The Blazers had their chance.” But Portland traded Gerald Wallace, elevating Batum to starter status and perhaps bridging the gap between the sides – as long as Batum’s camp isn’t holding a grudge. He had career highs in scoring, rebounding and 3-point shooting and is just 23 and incredibly athletic. DESTINATION: So much depends on the initial tone in negotiations. If it sours, Batum could end up in Charlotte or Phoenix, both of which have cap room and a hole at small forward. THE RIGHT PRICE: Four years, $40 million. Batum has upside, but not max player upside. 3. Nicolas Batum： 他在商讨延长合约失败後被留了下来，这会有不好的影响。 他的经纪人说：“拓荒者有过一次机会了。” 但是拓荒者交易了 Gerald Wallace ，并且把 Nicolas Batum 升到了先发。 这也许能弥补双方的感情裂痕－－只要 Nicolas Batum 方面不怀恨在心。 他这赛季得到了生涯新高的得分，篮板和三分球命中数， 而且他只有23岁，拥有卓越的身体素质。 未来去向预测： 这取决於他和球队的初期交涉。 如果球队搞砸了， Nicolas Batum 很可能去夏洛特山猫队或者凤凰城太阳队， 这两支队伍都有薪资空间，并且急需一名小前锋。 合适的价格：4年4000万。 Nicolas Batum 有上限，但不是顶薪上限。 4. Roy Hibbert: He came into his own this season, becoming an All-Star, raising his defensive numbers and showing his ability to impact playoff games. Before the Pacers address needs in free agency or talk to George Hill, they need to lock up Hibbert to keep moving up the title contention ladder. DESTINATION: Hibbert is not going anywhere. The Pacers might allow another team in need of a center to set the market, then match the offer. THE RIGHT PRICE: Four years, $50 million. He is not a max center – not yet, anyway – but probably will get the max. 4. Roy Hibbert： 他本赛季成为了全明星，提升了他防守端的数据，并前显示出在季後赛的冲击力。 溜马队进入自由市场涉猎和搞定 George Hill 之前， 他们需要留下 Roy Hibbert 来继续向冠军发起冲击。 未来去向预测： Roy Hibbert 哪也不会去。 溜马队可能会让其他需要中锋的球队来提供报价，然後支付相同报价。 合适的价格：4年5000万。 他不是个顶级中锋－－目前还不是－－但是他可能会成为顶级中锋。 5. Javale McGee: Nuggets coach George Karl compared him to Connie Hawkins, probably not the best thing to do when your GM is about to negotiate a contract with McGee’s agent. Yes, McGee is the long-term answer in the pivot. But he averaged just 21 minutes per game after the trade in which Denver gave up Nene, can’t make free throws and still has way too many lapses in judgment both off and on the court. DESTINATION: What if Rockets GM Daryl Morey – who chased Marc Gasol last offseason – renounces Marcus Camby, doesn’t pick up the option on Samuel Dalembert and makes a max run at McGee? Can the Nuggets afford not to match? Probably not. THE RIGHT PRICE: Four years, $36 million. But he will get more, deservedly or not. Centers get overpaid in the Association. 5. Javale McGee： 金块队主帅 George Karl 把 Javale McGee 比作是 Connie Hawkins， 这在总经理和 Javale McGee 经纪人讨价还价的时候并不是个明智的举措。 是的， Javale McGee 是球队中锋位置上长期的答案。 但是，他在被交易来後每场平均只有21分钟的出场时间， 并且他罚球命中率糟糕，人们对他在场上和场下的评价褒贬不一。 未来去向预测： 如果火箭的GM Daryl Morey－－他去年欲追逐 Marc Gasol 失利－－ 放弃了 Marcus Camby ，没有执行 Samuel Dalembert 的合约选项， 给 Javale McGee 提供了一份长期的大合约会怎样？ 金块队能够忍痛不支付相同报价麽？可能不会吧。 合适的价格： 4年3600万。 不过无论他是否值这个价，他会得到更高的报价。 现在联盟的中锋们都会得到偏高的报价。 6. O.J. MAYO: Because he was such a high draft pick, Mayo already makes starter money ($7.4 million qualifying offer) but has been a reserve for two seasons. In that time, the Grizzlies have backed up the Brinks truck for Mike Conley, Zach Randolph and Marc Gasol and have $50 million-plus committed to that trio plus Rudy Gay through 2015. It is highly possible that Memphis could turn Mayo loose. DESTINATION: Mayo could help contenders such as Boston and Chicago get younger and more athletic at the 2-guard. THE RIGHT PRICE: Four years, $30 million, if he has a skillful agent. 6. O.J. MAYO： 因为 O.J. MAYO 的选秀顺位非常前面， 他已经得到了先发球员的薪资（740万的报价），但是他连续两年都是替补。 灰熊已经用超过 5000 万签下了 Mike Conley， Zach Randolph 和 Marc Gasol， 而 Rudy Gay 的合约到 2015 年才到期。 所以孟菲斯灰熊队很可能会放弃 O.J. MAYO。 未来去向预测： O.J. MAYO 能够帮助像公牛队和塞尔提克队这样的竞争者， 他们需要补充更加年轻和有运动能力的得分後卫。 合适的价格： 如果他的经纪人足够有经验，他能得到4年3000万的合约。 7. Brook Lopez: He figures to be the key piece heading to Orlando in a potential Dwight Howard deal, which makes him an ideal candidate for a lucrative extension via a sign-and-trade to make the money match. That is a bit risky given that he played just five games this season due to a broken foot and sprained ankle, but he never missed a game before that. A scoring center who leaves something to be desired on the backboards and needs a thug next to him. DESTINATION: Orlando in a sign-and-trade. THE RIGHT PRICE: Four years, $40 million. He is not a max player. 7. Brook Lopez： 他很可能成为 Dwight Howard 交易的一部分被打包到奥兰多魔术队， 所以这让他很可能成为先签後换的人选来平衡双方薪水。 这有点冒险，因为他本赛季由於脚伤和脚踝扭伤只打了5场比赛。 不过他在此之前从未缺席过比赛。 他是个得分型中锋，需要身边有一个苦力来抢篮板。 未来去向预测：奥兰多，先签後换。 合适的价格：4年4000万。他不是顶级球员。 8. Michael Beasley: There was serious interest in him at the trading deadline because he can flat-out score. But he is coming off the worst season of his career, hasn’t gotten any better since entering the league in 2008 and has some off-court issues in his past. His qualifying offer is nearly $8.2 million – which Minnesota might offer to keep him as a trade asset. DESTINATION: Moving on, because the Timberwolves have to clear the position for Derrick Williams. The Lakers showed interest at the deadline. The Bobcats, Kings and Suns all have cap room and could use his scoring at the 3-spot. THE RIGHT PRICE: Three years, $24 million. He needs to show maturity. 8. Michael Beasley： 由於 Michael Beasley 能够得分，在交易截止日前有一些球队对他很感兴趣。 他本赛季的表现为生涯最差， 事实上他从2008年进入联盟後就没有进步，而且他现在也有些赛场外的问题。 他的资格报价大约是820万－－明尼苏达灰狼队可能会提供给他，并且留下他用来交易。 未来去向预测： 离开。因为明尼苏达需要为 Derrick Williams 清出位置。 湖人在交易截止日显示了对他的兴趣。 山猫，国王和太阳都有薪资空间，并且需要他在小前锋位置上的得分。 合适的价格：3年2400万。他需要表现得更成熟。 9. Jeremy Lin : The arbitration case to determine whether the Knicks have Bird rights on Lin and Steve Novak (both claimed on waivers) will go a long way toward determining his future. After setting the basketball world on its ear, Lin won’t be a minimum player anymore. The Knicks would love to win the arbitration case and exceed the cap to re-sign him and save their mid-level exception for someone else – like Steve Nash. Keep in mind that Lin’s body of work, while solid, was two months. DESTINATION: Really can’t see the Knicks letting a draw like Lin get away, even at the expense of Nash. Portland needs a point and could make a serious offer, as could Dallas and Denver. THE RIGHT PRICE: Four years, $21 million. 9. 林书豪： 决定纽约尼克队对林书豪和 Steve Novak（他俩都声称豁免） 是否拥有“伯德条款”的仲裁将会对他的未来影响深远。 在引领了一场篮球界的旋风後，林书豪不再是一个底薪球员了。 纽约尼克队会非常想赢得仲裁，然後超过工资帽重新签下林书豪， 这样节省下来的中产条款就可以留给别人了－－比如 Steve Nash 。 记住，林书豪健康的身体只持续了两个月。 未来去向预测： 很难想像纽约尼克队会让这麽一棵摇钱树离开，即使他们花掉留给 Steve Nash 的钱。 波特兰需要一个控卫，他们会提供一个考虑充分的报价，达拉斯和丹佛也会。 合适的价格：4年2100万。 10. George Hill : He will be priority No. 2 for the Pacers, but they cannot underestimate his value as a combo guard. He took Darren Collison’s starting point spot late in the season and was solid in the playoffs, as he had been for the Spurs. Just 26, his qualifying offer is about $3.1 million, and Indiana has the cap room to keep him around. DESTINATION: Hard to see the Pacers letting him go unless they put the full-court press on Gordon. If so, the Wizards, Jazz, Blazers, Suns or Mavs may pounce with a big offer. THE RIGHT PRICE: Four years, $28 million. 10. George Hill： 他可能是印第安纳溜马队第二考虑的人，但是他双能控卫的属性不会被低估。 就像他在马刺一样， 他在赛季末段顶替 Darren Collison 担任先发控卫，并且在季後赛中表现良好。 他只有26岁，资格报价为310万，溜马队有空间留下他。 未来去向预测： 很难想像溜马队会让他离开，除非他们全力追逐 Eric Gordon，并让他打两个位置。 如果 George Hill 离开，华盛顿巫师队，犹他爵士队，波特兰拓荒者队， 凤凰城太阳队和达拉斯小牛队都会提供一份肥约。 合适的价格：4年2800万。 FIVE MORE TO TRACK: Omer Asik, C; Jerryd Bayless, G; Aaron Brooks, G; J.J. Hickson, F; Jason Thompson, F. 另外5个值得观察的球员： Omer Asik，中锋；Jerryd Bayless，後卫；Aaron Brooks，後卫； J.J. Hickson，前锋； Jason Thompson，前锋。 翻译来源参考: http://bbs.hupu.com/3768289.html 备注: 能列在这名单上的球员都算是曾打出成绩的大鱼 值得注意的是 林书豪能跟预测一般 与球队签下4年2100万(或在此之上)的合约呢? 只要保持健康的身体与本季的数据 谁说没有机会呢? --

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※ 发信站: 批踢踢实业坊(ptt.cc) ※ 转录者: lest83 (118.167.173.207), 时间: 06/13/2012 01:41:22 ※ 编辑: lest83 来自: 118.167.173.207 (06/13 01:42)