30Q: Can the Kings Be Elite Offensive Rebounders? 30Q：国王能成为进攻篮板的强者吗？ http://0rz.tw/nIBu7 We're asking 30 questions about the Kings' 2010-11 season. Last season, the Kings finished sixth in the league in offensive rebounding. That performance was the best it had been in years. This was with Spencer Hawes, Jason Thompson, Sean May, Andres Nocioni, Jon Brockman and, for half a season, Carl Landry manning the frontcourt. Things have changed up front. Samuel Dalembert, one of the best rebounders in the league, has replaced Hawes. Hassan Whiteside has replaced Brockman (a world-beating offensive rebounder) and May at the back of the rotation. DeMarcus Cousins has been added. There will no more small forward-masquerading-as-power forward nonsense. This is a longer, stronger, more athletic frontcourt. How will that affect the offensive rebounding? After the jump, I break it down based on the different frontcourt combinations' rebounding expectations. 又到了30问的时间。 上季国王的进攻篮板排在联盟第六，这是近年来最佳的成绩，这项 成绩由阿屁、小汤、阿妹、Noci、洛克人和只打半季的蓝锥组成的 前场联合贡献。 暑假我们的前场阵容有了大转变，联盟的篮板好手Sammy取代了阿屁， 白边取代了洛克人﹝进攻篮板怪物﹞和阿妹在板凳席的位置，另外 我们还增加了表弟，终於不用再看到小前锋代打大前锋的戏码，我 们的前场现在又长、又粗、又有活力。 这将会给我们的进攻篮板带来何种影响？ 我将分别预估不同的前场组合所贡献的篮板成绩。 For veterans, I used last season's rebounding performance as the data here. For the two rookies, I took about 15 percent off their college performance. It's a rough approximation -- good enough for our purposes and in line with what each did at Vegas Summer League. For the backcourt, we'll use the default Tyreke Evans-Beno Udrih pairing. This will make our projections somewhat conservative -- Francisco Garcia is a better rebounder than Udrih -- but it's the default heading into the season, so there you have it. For the small forward position, I'm spliting the difference between Omri Casspi and Donte Greene, who should see similar minutes no matter who starts. Here are the most likely combinations. 我以上季的篮板成绩作为数据基准，至於两位新秀，则是取样他们 大学成绩的85%，这是个粗估值，但已足够做为我们预测的基准， 同时也符合他们夏季联盟的表现。 後场采用reke和乌锥的组合，这将会让我们的预估变的比较保守， 因为老贾抓篮板的能力比乌锥好，但这是上季的主要後场组合，也 是我们采取这个组合的原因，小前锋部分我把卡卡和小绿的差异性 抽离，因为不论谁先发，他们的上场时间应该都差不多。 以下是数据图 http://assets.sbnation.com/assets/423649/OffReb-tz-1011.jpg The combos I expect most frequently are on the left, moving down to the least common. "Lan" is Carl Landry, "Dal" is Samuel Dalembert, "DMC" is DeMarcus Cousins, "JT" is Jason Thompson and "WS" is Hassan Whiteside. Seven of the nine combos would be projected to beat the league average for offensive rebounding. Six of the combos -- including expected pairings Landry-Cousins, Thompson-Dalembert and Thompson-Cousins -- would rate comparably with the league's best offensive rebounding team last season, the Grizzlies. Cousins-Dalembert would break the scales. The only expected unit projected worse than league average includes Landry-Thompson ... but that unit is basically at league average. Assuming everyone rebounds on offense as they have (in the NBA or college), we can expect the Kings to get plenty of offensive rebounds game after game, and it wouldn't be a surprise if they finished in the top three in the league in the category. Including either Cousins or Dalembert in any line-up projects the unit to rebound offensively better than league average, and in the other non-Whiteside case -- Landry-Thompson -- the difference is negligible. The big upgrades since last season have certainly bolstered the team's offensive rebounding. 我预估会最常出现的组合排在左侧，由左至右依次递减，Lan是蓝 锥、Dal是Sammy、DMC是表弟、JT是小汤、WS是白边。 九组配对中的七组被预期会高於联盟的平均进攻篮板数，其中的蓝 锥表弟配、小汤Sammy配和小汤表弟配的数据几乎就是上季最佳进 攻篮板队伍的成绩，而表弟Sammy配则直接超越了上季最佳的成绩， 唯一一组会常出现但低於联盟平均成绩的是小汤蓝锥配，但他们也 逼近於联盟平均。 如果大家的篮板成绩能如往常一样，我们可以期待国王在每一场比 赛中抓下大量的进攻篮板，而且球队进攻篮板的成绩如果排进联盟 前三也不会让人讶异。不论任何先发组合，只要是和表弟Sammy配 在一起，进攻篮板的预估值就一定高於联盟平均值，至於在其他无 白边的组合中，即便是居於劣势的小汤蓝锥配，差距也不明显，上 季到本季球队最大的进步将会从进攻篮板上显现出来。 Why didn't I do this for defensive rebounding? With offensive rebounding, there is really no such thing as diminishing returns. Having two awesome offensive rebounders on the floor doesn't usually result in the pair taking offensive rebounds away from each other -- they take rebounds away from the opponents. That's not the case on defense, where there are substantial diminishing returns. Adding good defensive rebounders will help, but it's not simple addition. In other words: no, Cousins-Dalembert won't hold opponents to one offensive rebound in every 10 opportunities. (That's what a projection similar to the offensive rebounding one says. It's not right.) On defense, let's surmise we'll be improved. To what degree is more a guess than an estimate. 为何我不讨论防守篮板？因为进攻篮板并不会挤压到队友的表现， 有两个进攻篮板好手在场上，并不代表他们会压缩到彼此进攻篮板 的成绩，他们只会压缩到对手的防守篮板成绩。 以上的论点不代表防守篮板，因为防守篮板会有边际效应递减的作 用，防守篮板好手的加盟当然会有帮助，但它不会直接显示在数据 上。换句话说，表弟Sammy配不会让对手每十次篮板机会就抓走一 个进攻篮板，防守上我们只能大略地说我们会进步，至於进步到何 种程度，用猜的部分大於用估算的部份。 --

※ 发信站: 批踢踢实业坊(ptt.cc) ◆ From: 118.167.191.245 多谢指正 ※ 编辑: kingpredrag 来自: 118.167.191.245 (08/25 22:04)