这篇要讨论的是Sergio在国王可能会面临的状况 在此我想先引用拓版阿机机大大PO过的外文让大家进一步了解Sergio的状况 http://www.blazersedge.com/fanposts/full/2 Its going to be impossible for me not to seem biased for Sergio in this post, so I'll just go ahead and own it. I've been a huge Sergio fan ever since he became a Blazer. Earlier in fact. I've been paying attention to foreign prospects for a while (I'm kind of a draft geek), and was enamored enough with Sergio, that I told a friend he was the guy we needed to select when we added that pick from PHX. To my utter astonishment, KP made my dream a reality. Ever since then, Sergio has been my favorite player on the team. 看到有Sergio讨论的文章没来参一咖总觉得心痒痒的，我是一个 超级Serigo迷,在他没有成为阿拓之前就是了，我观察海外球员已经 好一阵子了(我是个选秀怪咖) 而且极为迷恋Sergio，我告诉我朋友 我们絶对要拿太阳给我们的那个签选Sergio。 真没想到,KP居然实现了我的梦想 直到现在,Serigo还是我在队上最爱的那个人。 However, I'm a realist, well, a pessimist really. Last year after watching his play (mostly cringe inducing), I became aware of the potential parting of ways between Sergio and the Blazers. Even though I didn't like Bayless' game more than Sergio's, I had to admit, like any objective person, that he was not only the better fit with Roy, but probably the more likely long term answer for this team. Although you still have to back your guy (thanks timbo, for helping me find my passion again), I stated the obvious reasons you can't just let a guy like Sergio go and rot away on the bench (age, elite and unusual talents etc). 然而，我是个务实的人，或者说我是个悲观主义者， 去年我看他的比赛 (带着一些死忠粉司的心)， 我开始害怕起他跟拓荒者的未来。 即使我不喜欢Bayless胜过Serigo，但我必须承认客观的来讲， Bayless才是长期适合和Roy搭配的那个人， 但是我还是想挺Serigo, 球队不能把他放在板凳烂掉 。 (他是那麽的有未来) Then I went to that preseason game against Sacremento, and I saw the chemistry he and Rudy had on the court. It was as immediate and obvious as any combo you'll ever see play together. I fell back in love with all the things I had always loved about his game. During this early run, not only has he exhibited that rookie season flair and insanely high assist ratio we all grew to love two years ago, but you have begun to see his development as an overall basket- ball player. Most importantly to his potential future here in Portland were his improvements in two areas, his defense and his three point shooting. 然後我去看了阿拓对抗国王的热身赛，我看到他跟Rudy产生了 好的化学效应, 马上就会想到联盟中任何曾出现过的双卫组合。 我又重燃对Sergio的热情， 这可不是因为他前两年就展现出来的 特质如能力跟恐怖的助攻失误比而已，Sergio也该成长成更好的 更成熟的球员了。 对他来说能不能在阿拓生存下去就得靠他在三分投篮跟防守上 能否进步。 I know, I know, his three point percentage is average (its actually slightly above average 37%). But it actually isn't. His true three point percentage is actually above 40%. When I took a look at the box score today, and saw Sergio, Rodriguez 3/9, and 2/4 from three, I thought, that isn't the game I just saw. Those shots don't represent even his shooting impact on the game. The part I won't significantly get into here is the fact that on two of his missed shots, that he blew past the player defending him, and caused a big to challenge his shot (allowing Joel and LaMarcus to dunk off his missed layups). The part I want to get into is part of the un-stats. Specifically the half court heaves that show up on your box score, but represent zero of your ability to reason- ably and effectively hit your three point shot in a game. As it stands now, Sergio Rodriguez is 14 for 38 on the year from three (37%). 5 of those shots, or 13% of his three point shots for the year have been of the half court heave variety. 13%, I've concluded is among the highest percentages of half court heaves to three point shots in the NBA. Steve Blake by comparison, has shot 3 of them on the year (3% of his threes) . His real, honest to goodness 3 point percentage is 45/103 (106 w/ half court heaves) or 43.7%. By comparison, right now Sergio sits at 14/33 (38 w/ half court heaves) or 42.4%. When someone in the game threads throws up their arms (or like computer anology), feel free to let them know, when Sergio Rodriguez has an open three point shot, not only is it not the end of the world, it actually results in a T(otal)S(hot)% of 64%. I've compiled a list of guards that have a TS% of over 64%... Steve Nash. The point being, when you're criticizing Sergio's game this year, be fair about it. Things you're allowed to complain about on the offensive end include; Sergio's inability to finish at the rack and his inability to make supposedly easy mid range buckets... end of list 我知道，我知道他的三分球可能不出色 (37%)，但这不是表面所呈现的 他真正的三分球命中率超过四成，当我看着今天的分数盒子，上面写说 Sergio今晚命中率3/9三分线上投2/4， 我就在想， 这絶对有问题 这些数字不能忠实的反应他在投射方面的影响力。 这个部分我先提一下Sergio miss的两个上篮都是在他过了 防守者之後受到大个子干扰後没进的球。(况且之後 ， LaMarcus跟大P还帮他 补灌进了) 但这个不是我真的要谈的部分 ，我真的要说的是数字无法显示的部分 ，分数盒子你只能看到半场进攻的一个大概, 并没有办法忠实呈现 你的投射能力跟你的工作效率， 今年为止 Sergio的三分球投14/38 ，其中有五颗球是在球队不同的半场节奏下攻进的 在他所有的三分线出手数中占13%。 13%,我断定这是一个很高的数字在三分投射的领域来说，拿同队的PG Steve Blake 来作比较的话， 他今年在球队不同半场节奏进攻下的三分球进球数只有三颗 占他总三分球出手术的仅仅3%。 他真正的三分球出手命中率是 45/103 (本来是106颗中45, 三颗出手数要减掉, 因为那是球队不同半场节奏进攻下的三分球出手) 而Sergio是14/33 (本来是38颗中14, 5颗出手数要减掉, 因为那是球队不同半场节奏进 攻下的三分球出手) 当球迷对着电脑或是在现场看球大声骂翻sergio控档三分没进时， 其实没那麽严重， 这不代表世界末日， 事实上 ， 他的T(otal)S(hot)% 命中率超过64%， Nash 也不过是这个数字 以後请你们要鞭Sergio时请搞清楚方向， 他只是没有杀到篮下自行 取分的能力跟稳健的中距离而已。 ,The more important improvement in Sergio's game has been on the defensive end. Because stats on this end are harder to quantify, most of you will just have to rely on what you've seen on the court. Sergio gets into his player almost immediately upon that player passing the half court line (if not sooner), and he isn't playing off of them, but he's playing really tight defense. This eliminates a lot of his natural deficiencies as an athlete. While athletic, Sergio has a tendency to get his feet crossed when defending quicker PG's. When he plays up tight on the guys, he essentially forces them to choose their path, eliminating the potential cross overs, and Ole's, that people around here love to throw at him. Due to his toughness on the defensive end, point guards really have to work to get anything at all against him. Of the stats that are quantifiable on defense, Sergio is fairing very well. In 15 minutes per game, he's averaging 0.8 steals per game, which ends up at 2.4 steals per 48, which of the qualifying PG's in the league ranks him at #12 in that category, and if you adjust for pace, he's actually closer to 2.6 steals per 48, which would put him at #8 for qualiying PG's. The better and more important numbers I have to go to 82games.com for. http://www.82games.com/0809/08POR2.HTM 另一个Sergio明显进步的地方是他在防守端的表现， 这方面因为数据很难质量化出来， 大部分需要依靠你在球场上的观察。 Sergio在对手敌队过半场後给予对手的压迫很迅速， 他并不是非常强势 ，但至少他有明显的防守动作出来， 这弥补了他许多在防守上体能的先天劣势。 当他防守比他快的控卫时，Sergio倾向用脚步亦步亦趋的跟着对手 ，这迫使他的对手不能切入 ， 只能选择外线的跳投 ，因为他在防守上的硬度 ， 被他守的控卫必须拿出全力才能对付他 数据上来说 ， 他也是个不错的防守者， 他在15分钟内就有0.8个抄截， 而换算成48分钟的话就是2.4次的抄截 ， 全联盟PG里排第12 如果再把比赛节奏调快一点， 事实上他可以有每48分钟 2.6个抄截的能力 全联盟高居第八。 - If you go down to production by position, you'll notice that the player that Sergio defends this year averages 6 assists and over 3 turnovers per 48 minutes. Thats incredibly low production for any PG. The player he's defending this year is also shooting an abysmal 36% eFG from the floor. Of the 66 PG's in the league that qualify not a single one of them shoots less than that from the floor. Basically, once again trying to endorse fairness on BE, if we're going to fairly assess his weakness on the defensive end, we can't discuss the Ole' part of his game anymore. The worst you could say about him, based strictly on his play from this season, is that he occasionally suffers from mental lapses. It appears that physically, he will eventually be able to control, or at least mitigate to some degree opposing PG's ability to gain easy access to the painted area. He has gotten to the point, where most possessions he's involved in usually end with the PG having to give the ball up to a less adept ball handler as soon as they cross the half court line. Rarely this year have we seen someone dominate Sergio in one on one situations for even a couple possessions in a row. 如果来看和Sergio交手过的对手数据如何的话， 那个成绩是每48分钟平均6助攻3失误， 这是一个很不错的防守成绩了， 更别提他守到的人只有交出36%的投篮数据， 联盟66位PG每一位的平均FG%都高於36%。 再一次强调 ，批评Sergio要批评对地方， 你只能说Sergio在场外可能心情不愉快， 但至少在身体上他用他的力气去阻止， 每一位PG轻易的切入篮下， 每一次他参与的防守他都迫使对方PG传给最不适宜的队友， 而且他在今年已经很少在 1 on 1上被对手吃掉。 I guess what I'd like to get from this, is some fair and honest assessment on what you think Sergio's future could be here, or with another team. And if you'd prefer the future of this team to involve him or not. Not necessarily whether you care for his game, but in an ideal world, in 3-4 years can you see, or do you want to see him on the team. If so, how? Starting? Backing up? 10 minutes per game? 20 minutes per game? etc... 我想这些资料可以供大家多了解Sergio的未来该如何， 还有该去哪一队比较好， 或者无论你关不关心Sergio， 能给他在队上的定位 提出更好的意见吗？ =======================外电翻译文完======================================== 这篇外电我认为很有趣的地方在於， 他颠覆了我们对於 Sergio不会投篮不会防守这部分的印象。 以数据指证出了其实他不是部会投篮， 而是对自己能在不同 角度下不同情况下出手保持过高的自信， 从第二段我们可以看出 ， 他不像Steve Blake一样是个乖乖听话的等球射手， 他会去尝试不同面向的投射，这很有趣 ， 让我不禁要问 他适不适合在国王寻找他的第二春？ 我们先假设， 国王未来的目标是要把EVANS打造成双能卫在用 (这是个必要的假设) 那麽， Sergio能在以EVANS持球创造机会的系统下存活吗？ 这里能拿来比较的是他上一支待的球队的生态， 或者简单来说 他跟Roy的互动与成长的情况是如何？ 我们可以利用数据来一看究竟 http://www.82games.com/0809/0809POR2.HTM Top Five-Man Floor Units定义 “Details the performance of the top 20 most used five-man units, with percentage of total team minutes played, points scored and allowed, plus/minus and W-L stats, etc.” Top Five-Man Floor Units 这个数据是用来说明当球队五个重要球员在场上时 五个人对场上的互动是如何。 由於Sergio跟Roy 本季都有机会成为实际在场上指挥攻势的那个人 所以我们拿T/O来比可能是最适合的数据， 因为这是一个对手 的失误次数减去自身失误的次数得出来的分数， 与PG来说直接的关联性 最大， 但要有效的以相同防守能力的阵容跟想同强度比赛来作比较 否则还是会失真就是。 所以我选了08-09年 ， Sergio好不容易比较有空间发挥的这一年来跟 Roy的数据比较，而且还特别限定了他们有相同等级防守能力得队友 的组合来作比较 ， 以免得到的结果失真。 抽样结果如下： ┌──────────────────────────────┐ │ │ │ │ Unit │ T/O │ │─────────────────────────│────│ │ 1 Rodriguez-Fernandez-Outlaw-Aldridge-Oden │ -4% │ │ │ │ │ 2 Rodriguez-Fernandez-Outlaw-Aldridge-Przybilla │ +2% │ │ │ │ │ 3 Blake-Fernandez-Roy-Aldridge-Przybilla │ +14% │ │ │ │ │ 4 Blake-Roy-Batum-Outlaw-Aldridge │ +6% │ │ │ │ │ 5 Rodriguez-Fernandez-Roy-Outlaw-Oden │ -3% │ │ │ │ │ 6 Rodriguez-Roy-Batum-Aldridge-Oden │ +1% │ │ │ │ └──────────────────────────────┘ 这六个数字代表什麽 ? 代表 1: Sergio独自上场控球 2: Sergio,Roy同时上场有更好防守的队友 3: Roy主控, 同时上场有更好防守的队友 4: Roy主控 5: 同时摆上两人在场上 6: 同时摆上两人在场上 同时上场有更好防守的队友 在Roy主导攻势的组合中 T/O指数都是+分的 ， 差别只是在换上更强防守阵容後加更多分而已 ，而Sergio的情况就比较复杂，你可以看到他跟防守能力强的队友 上场时 ， 虽然+分没比Roy好 ， 但球队的T/O 至少是+的， 但是换上Outlaw跟比较没经验的Oden後 ，数据就下降成-的 而摆上56这个阵容可以发现 Sergio在影响Roy， Roy本身带动队友的能力下降了 (对照3,4 T/O) ，而Sergio本身却没有拖累这个阵容太多 (对照1,2的 T/O) 这显示了： 1: 要让Serigo上场 就必须有好的防守球员跟他作他搭配 2: 目前还没有办法看出他有带球队攻势顺畅大成长的态势 但至少他没有到带赛球队的地步 3: 他跟另一个控球上场时会抢拍子影响到对方 所以他适合国王吗? 首先他必须要能跟队上防守最好的Noci ， Garcia， JT做好搭配 其次， 他必须要在找出一个不跟Evans冲突的打法 如果Evans要练控球 ， 那他就不能重蹈跟Roy配合的覆辙 要怎麽跟Evans配才不会像跟Roy配那样 (别忘了还有一个人叫 Beno会跟他抢到底)。 同时让Sergio 在场上变魔术跟， Evans的双卫打法能不能并存 08-09年的数据似乎并不支持 ， 但也不是没有那麽一丝曙光 首先就是第一个： Nate McMillan在 Sergio新人年就没有给予他好的实战锻链经验 ，今年才不过是他正式推上火线稍微多一点时间的一年 ，但跟球队给予Roy出道以来的发挥空间还是天差地别。 我们可以大胆假设大量的实战经验Roy已经摸透整个球队进攻体系而 Sergio只是单纯凭他对篮球的理解天才而打出今年不错的成绩， 对照今年跟去年Sergio在拓荒者搭配的五人短短的适应期 还要加上时间跟先发次数的增加有限 http://www.nba.com/playerfile/sergio_rodriguez/career_stats.html http://www.82games.com/0708/0708POR2.HTM http://www.82games.com/0809/0809POR2.HTM ，我们是应该给他一段在国王打先发PG的机会，那会是个很有趣的实验 如果他越到後面越跟队友默契越好的话 ， 等於打了Nate McMillan一计耳光 只要不要妨碍到Evans同时的成长就好 ， 这部分就有赖教练团的安排协调。 第二个 ， 呼应外电第一点Sergio进步的投射 事实上他那篇外电是去年12/11的新闻， 整季下来Sergio的三分投射次数是37-114 仅仅32.5% ，不知那位作者是否有持续追踪这些投射并与以统计以证明 Sergio确实是具有在不同节奏变换下勇於尝试投射的特质？ (或是有常看比赛的拓版版友来卫我们解惑一下, thanks) 如果他的确有， 这样也许他会意外的适合球队的普林斯顿打法或 Motion的打法 ，因为只要他能够不停的跑位寻找空档，勇於尝试出手 就能将他不擅切入的缺点隐藏起来， 同时也不浪费他的传球天才。 但依照目前来看， 要让Evans打控球的战术下， 普林斯顿会慢慢变成副战术的可能性不小就是， 但Motion却有可能串联彼此不同节奏的桥梁。 当然这只是我一个很大胆的假设， 真的要分析起来又是另外一个 战术话题了(因为战术这方面我也不太懂不敢乱讲XD)， 这篇我只用数据佐证Sergio适不适合国王而已， 如果有班门弄斧之处还请给予指正 XDD ======= 後记: Sergio没有参加夏季联盟真的很可惜， 因为他丧失了一次跟队上主力 (Evans , Hawes, JT) 练球的机会 ， 及早培养与队友的默契对现在的他而言 非常重要， well......也只能希望他的自主训练 能维持好 ， 加上季前训练营跟热身赛多加把劲了。 总之,祝福他在这里能有一个新的开始！ --

※ 发信站: 批踢踢实业坊(ptt.cc) ◆ From: 61.224.24.22 ※ 编辑: RonArtest93 来自: 61.224.24.22 (07/06 19:50)