资料来源：ESPN，http://goo.gl/Q7fbf 作者：kevin pelton Revisiting Lin vs. Felton decision From the standpoint of the New York Knicks, hoping to justify their decision to let Jeremy Lin leave in free agency and replace him at point guard with Raymond Felton, this season couldn't have started any better. Felton was excellent during the month of November as the Knicks got off to a surprising start, while Lin struggled to find his place next to James Harden with the Houston Rockets. 对尼克队而言，十一月开季战绩长红加上Raymond Felton(Lin的替代品)大爆发多少合理 化夏天没有留下Lin的决定，因为Lin表现不佳且还在学习如何与James Harden一起打球。 Some three months later, it's worth revisiting the Lin decision. Felton's success, like his team's, has proved fleeting. Meanwhile, the Rockets and Lin are one of the league's hottest teams. 过了三个再来看看这个决定，好不？Felton的爆发一闪即逝，而Lin的火箭则是联盟最火 热的球队之一。 Misleading month 令人误会的那个月 You remember November, right? President Barack Obama had just been re-elected, Manti Te'o was merely a linebacker in contention for the Heisman, and the Knicks were one of the NBA's best teams. Behind a flurry of 3-pointers and a smaller lineup with Carmelo Anthony at power forward, New York started the season 14-4. The Knicks capped that stretch with their second win over the Miami Heat and marked themselves as serious contenders in the Eastern Conference. 还记得12月吗？尼克队是联盟最强球队之一。充满激情的三分球和以Carmelo Anthony为 主的小个子先发阵容，让尼克得到14-4战绩。包括两次战胜热火的壮举，也让尼克成为东 区冠军的热门队伍之一。 New York's backcourt of Felton and fellow newcomer Jason Kidd played a major role in the fast start. Felton made 40 percent of his 3s in November while averaging 14.6 points and 6.7 assists. Kidd was even better beyond the arc at nearly 49 percent. As a team, the Knicks shot 41.6 percent from 3-point range, powering the league's best offensive rating in the month. Felton 和新同学Jason Kidd是这套快速球风的关键後场。Felton 12月的三分命中率超过 40%、平均得分14.6分、助攻6.7次，Kidd则有高於生涯平均的49%命中率。尼克队的三分 命中率高达41.6%，是联盟中进攻最犀利的队伍。 Everyone said the shooting couldn't last, and it didn't. Since Dec. 1, New York has shot exactly the league average (35.8 percent) on 3-pointers. Felton, at 31.4 percent, has been even worse. The Knicks are still a very good offensive team, ranking sixth in points per possession from December onward, but not the juggernaut they once were. 但有人说"你以为可以天天过年吗!"，当然不行。自从12/1之後，尼克队三分命中率回复 到联盟平均35.8%，Felton只有31.4%。尼克还保持着每回合进攻得分排行第6的佳绩，但 已经不再像是juggernaut般无敌(Xman中的怪物，比巨石强森还壮)。 At the same time, as the chart shows, the Rockets were making the opposite transformation, with Lin as one of the leaders. As Houston has figured out how to utilize both Harden and Lin, the Rockets' offense has gone from solidly above average in November to elite. Lin's own statistics, as measured by wins above replacement, have seen a similar boost. 同时，以Lin为主的火箭却产生另外相反的变化。当火箭队学会如何融合Lin和Harden，12 月份他们的进攻从平庸提升到了精英程度。Lin的wins above replacement数据也有成长 。 Knicks finding their level 尼克队回归现实 The Knicks, it turns out, are who we thought they were. Since peaking at 14-4, they have consistently played at about a 45-win pace -- matching preseason expectations. Project that out through the rest of the schedule and New York figures to finish somewhere around 49 wins, which should be good for third in the East. 终究来说，尼克队跟我们预期的一样，除了14-4的高潮，渐渐走向平均45胜的节奏。预估 季末会有49胜左右的水准，占据东区第3。 Fears that the crosstown rival Brooklyn Nets will come back to win the Atlantic Division are probably overstated. While the Nets have climbed within two games in the standings, their point differential is barely better than .500, suggesting they're likely to regress somewhat the rest of the way. The same is true of the Atlanta Hawks, who sit fifth, leaving only the Chicago Bulls with a healthy Derrick Rose as a serious threat to the Knicks' top-three seed. 同城兄弟篮网不太可能超越老鹰进而赢过尼克，因为篮网只有领先两场胜差，胜负分差只 有0.5多一点，最终会回归正常。排名第6老鹰也是同样状况，所以唯一能威胁东区前三种 子只有缺少Rose的公牛队。 Felton, it turns out, is also who we thought he was -- not quite as bad as he looked during his disastrous 2011-12 campaign in Portland, but not as good as he played during his first half-season in New York or the opening month this season. As much as Felton's playmaking and his ability to generate steals have helped the Knicks, he has had a tough time scoring efficiently since the 3s stopped falling. Felton is making just 42.4 percent of his 2-point attempts and has seen his true shooting percentage slip to 47.5 percent -- far worse than the league average of 53.2 percent. Felton也不出我们所料，虽不至於2011-12 拓荒者那样悲惨，也无法超过上次在尼克队的 高水准。当他三分命中下滑之後得分变得困难，就只能靠着抄截和指挥帮助球队。 Felton 两分命中率只有42.4%，真实命中率也只有47.5%，远低於联盟平均53.2%。 Moving beyond Linsanity 超越林来疯 For both the Knicks and Lin himself, Linsanity has become a distant memory. Gone are the headlines, the screaming fans and the incredible numbers Lin posted as the Knicks' go-to player last February. Instead of getting Linsanity, the Rockets ended up with Jeremy Lin, developing point guard. 对尼克和Lin来说，林来疯已经远去。头条新闻、疯狂球迷和疯狂得分秀也是去年二月的 事了。火箭队得到的Lin只是个开发中的控卫。 Playing next to Harden, Lin isn't the focal point of the Houston offense the way he was during the stretch that made him a household name. However, he has defied critics by showing the ability to thrive in that smaller role. In part, that's because of the adjustments made by the Rockets' coaching staff. It also reflects Lin's 3-point shooting regressing to the mean. After shooting 26.3 percent from downtown in November, Lin is at 34.4 percent since, making him something of a threat when opponents leave him open. 在Harden身边的Lin，已经不是球队的得分重心。而他无视旁人评论努力融入教练团设定 的角色球员之中。数据会回归，Lin从本来的26.3%三分命中率回到34.4%，称得上对手该 注意的威胁。 The funny thing is Lin's 2012-13 stat line is relatively similar in many ways to what he did last year in New York. His effective field goal percentage, for example, is an identical .478. The difference in Lin's offense is entirely a matter of volume. He's down from using 28.1 percent of the Knicks' plays to 20 percent of Houston's, putting him precisely at the typical figure, and his assist rate has dropped by almost a third. Lin's overall performance, All-Star caliber in 2011-12's limited sample, is slightly below league average this season. That's a more sustainable level of play. 有趣的是，Lin的数据跟去年有许多相似之处。包括有效命中率effective field goal 47.8%、Lin的被使用率从尼克队的28.8%下降到20%。助功率下降森三分之一。Lin的本季 表现比联盟平均还低一些，尚有进步空间。 Looking ahead 往前看吧 Lin's ability to coexist with Harden, who doesn't use as many plays as Anthony but tends to dominate the ball to a greater extent, leads naturally to the question of whether Lin could have fit into an Anthony-centric offense at Madison Square Garden. Harden不像Anthony占据多数攻击机会，却倾向更全面的控制球权。让人不禁想问 Lin能 否同样适应Anthony为中心的麦迪逊花园广场。 There are advantages to Lin's current situation. Houston's fast pace, and the sheer number of pick-and-rolls the Rockets run as the basis of their offense, give him more opportunity to play in space than he might have had in New York. Still, it's not clear that Felton is any better fit for the Knicks than Lin would have been. According to mySynergySports.com, the two players have been about equally effective on spot-up opportunities, with Lin averaging 0.91 points per shot to Felton's 0.95. Surprisingly, Lin is a much more frequent spot-up shooter. 因为快节奏，Lin明显从火箭队受益更多。加上pick'N roll的大量使用，让Lin能在尼克 队没有的舒服空间打球。根据 mySynergySports.com，Lin和Felton的 spot-up 每次得分 为0.91分和0.95分差不多接近，但Lin得到spot-up的机会更为频繁。 We're also comparing these players as they are now, not as they will be at the end of the three-year contract Houston gave Lin. While Felton, 28, is likely to be about the same player at that point if not take a slight step backward, the 24-year-old Lin still has room to grow as an outside shooter and playmaker. 我们是以目前比现来比较两位球员，而不是3年合约後的Lin和Felton。3年後28岁的 Felton可能跟现在一样不上不下。但是目前24岁的Lin仍有成长为射手和playmaker的空间 。 The Knicks won the early rounds of the Lin versus Felton decision. If Lin already has pulled even, however, there may be no question who the better choice was in a couple of years. 目前而言尼克队对於Lin和Felton的决定是对的，但Lin照着目前节奏成长的话，他们两人 谁比较好就不用多说了。 --

※ 发信站: 批踢踢实业坊(ptt.cc) ◆ From: 163.25.118.240 不好意思已经补完後面的部分。 ※ 编辑: likeway 来自: 163.25.118.240 (03/20 23:24)