译者：chaunceylee13 已徵得译者同意转载并修改部分不同惯用语，仅节录与Lin相关部分。 原文：http://www.grantland.com/story/_/id/8182261/game-nba-thrones-part-i #footnote13 http://0rz.tw/8QYsz 译文：http://bbs.hupu.com/4066255.html Game of NBA Thrones, Part 1 With news coming from every corner of the basketball kingdom, it's time to hand out some awards By Bill Simmons on July 20, 2012 Bill Simmons：NBA版《权力游戏》PART 1 "I'm looking at spending the rest of my life being treated like a fool and a eunuch by my own people. Ask yourself: Is there anything I wouldn't do to stop that from happening?" 「我正眼睁睁地看着自己在余生中被自己的子民当成白痴和阉人。扪心自问：为了 阻止这件事的发生，我还有什麽不能做的麽？」 For Rockets GM Daryl Morey, who took the phrase "all in" to new levels with his dogged pursuit of Dwight Howard. At this point, Dork Elvis has done everything short of holding a boom box in the pouring rain outside of Dwight's Los Angeles hotel … and that's probably happening tomorrow night. His strategy makes sense: You can't win the title without a top-10 player. Unfortunately for the Rockets, they've been trapped in NBA no-man's-land ever since T-Mac and Yao broke down. Last year, they barely missed the playoffs AND paid the luxury tax, which simply can't happen — in a 30-team league, you either want to bottom out or contend, but you can't be in the middle. The Rockets spent the last three years stockpiling assets and cap space for this exact moment. It's Howard, Bynum or Bust.1 火箭的总经理Daryl Morey，在他对於Dwight Howard顽固的追逐中把「孤注一掷」 这个词演绎到了全新的层次。现在，Dork Elvis做了一切，就差在Howard下榻的 洛杉矶酒店外顶着倾盆大雨举着音响了（http://0rz.tw/NZmWy）...而也许这明晚 就会发生。他的策略其实是有道理的：没有现役前十的球员你是拿不到总冠军的。 但火箭队是不幸的，自从姚麦组合崩裂之後，他们就深陷无主之地之中。去年，他 们卫冕乐透区冠军而且还交了豪华税，这是不该发生的——在一个有30支队伍的联 盟里，要麽垫底，要麽有竞争总冠军的实力，但你不能徘徊中游。火箭花了三年时 间积攒筹码和薪金空间就是为了这一刻。要麽弄来Howard，要麽弄来Bynum，要麽 推倒重来。（注1） 1. I've written this before, but Daryl's strategy is statistically fascinating — if he pulled a 2012 Hornets and tanked an entire season, he'd have something like a 10 to 12 percent chance of drafting a franchise player when you multiply the best lottery odds (25 percent) with the odds of a legitimate franchise player being available during that specific year (probably 50-60 percent). If he gets Howard, the odds aren't much different that Howard might decide to stick around — maybe 10 to 15 percent — only he gets one contending season with Howard, the chance to sign and trade him AND eight to 10 months on selling Howard on Houston. And if none of this works even as next season is happening, he can always flip him before the trade deadline. Again, as a pure "playing the odds" ploy, it makes sense. 作者注1：我在之前写过关於这的文章，Morey的策略从数据上分析是极棒的——如 果他采取2011-12赛季黄蜂队的策略，一个赛季摆烂，那麽用拿到状元签的概率 （25%）乘以一届选秀中出现合格看板球星的概率（可能是50%-60%）他们有10-12 %机率选中一位看板球星。如果他获得Howard，那麽Howard留下的概率也不会差太 多——也许是10-15%——火箭获得一个赛季Howard的使用权，度过一个有竞争力的 赛季，这期间续签、交易或者花上8-10个月在休士顿兜售Howard都是有可能的。如 果这些在下赛季都没有成功，那Morey也可以在交易截止日前把Howard快速抛售出去 。再次强调，纯粹玩概率游戏的话，Morey的策略是有意义的。 [译者注：Dork Elvis是Morey在美国的外号。dork相对於geek而言，对於Morey来说 ，就是他是数据分析方面的奇才，但痴迷到了呆滞死板的地步；Elvis是因为Morey 和猫王长得有几分相似。] Were there a few days when it seemed like Morey had outsmarted himself? Actually, yeah. The Rockets allowed an emerging offensive star (Goran Dragic) to leave for Phoenix (four years, $34 million), then dealt one of the league's best bargains (Kyle Lowry, owed just $12 million total for the next two seasons) for a future lottery pick to help The Howard Trade That Might Not Happen, going from two quality point guards to zero in about five nanoseconds. That's when one of my incredulous readers e-mailed me, "At what point are we going to find out that Dork Elvis overdosed on bath salts and tried to eat Kevin McHale's face off?" He salvaged that mini-crisis by giving Jeremy Lin a back-loaded offer sheet ($24.9 million, three years) that the Knicks didn't match. Why not just re-sign Dragic (a better player than Lin) instead of sweating out an offer sheet and banking on James Dolan doing the wrong thing? 是否有那麽几天你会觉得Morey聪明反被聪明误？当然，火箭白白把新兴的进攻明星 Goran Dragic放回太阳（4年3400万美元），然後交易掉了联盟最实惠的球员之一（ Kyle Lowry，接下来两年仅有1200万的合约），换来一个未来的乐透选秀权，就是为 了交易到Howard这件可能不会实现的事，五纳秒之内，两个优质控卫变为零个。就在 那时我一位勇於质疑的读者给我发电子邮件，「我倒想看看何时Dork Elvis会吸食浴 盐过量，发狂到试图把Kevin McHale的脸啃下来？」给Jeremy Lin开出一份背厚式合 约（3年2490万美元），而尼克也没有跟进，这让Morey完成了小小的自我救赎。与其 费劲巴拉开个合约寄希望於James Dolan脑残，为什麽就不续约Dragic（一个比 Jeremy Lin更好的球员）？ [译者注：浴盐是一种新型迷幻剂，容易让人发狂、暴力。] 补注：应是指日前美国迈阿密发生的啃脸食人魔案。 (Wait … I forgot … there are few safer bets in sports than James Dolan doing the wrong thing. You're right.) （等等...我忘了...体育界几乎没有比赌James Dolan脑残更安全的赌注。Morey你是 对的。） "We've had vicious kings and we've had idiot kings, but I don't know if we've ever been cursed with a vicious idiot for a king." 「我们拥有过邪恶的君主，也拥有过白痴的君主，但我不知道我们会不会 受到拥有既邪恶又白痴君主的诅咒。」 (Cut to the Knicks fans nodding.) （镜头切到尼克球迷默默点头。） Here's the thing: The Knicks haven't worried about the financial ramifications of a basketball decision since Dolan's daddy turned the team over to him. Even the most grizzled, beaten-down Knicks diehard would admit, "Dolan might be incompetent, but you can't say he's afraid to spend money." That why I agree with what Jay Kang wrote earlier this week — this wasn't a financially motivated decision, just a spiteful one. Dolan didn't appreciate Lin's agent proactively screwing him over with a poison pill2 offer, and responded accordingly. 事情是这样的：自打Dolan的老爸把球队交给他以来，尼克在做篮球方面抉择的时候 还没有为钱的问题担心过。哪怕是最老派强硬的顽固分子都会承认，「Dolan也许不 称职，但你不能说他害怕花钱。」这就是为什麽我同意这周早些时候Jay Kang （Simmons经营的体育新闻网站《Grantland》的专栏作家）所写的—这决定（不跟进 Jeremy Lin的报价）不是因为钱，而是一种带着怨气的行为。Dolan不喜欢Jeremy Lin 的经纪人用毒药合约（注2）来恶心他，所以就做出了相应的回应。 2. Despite what Lin said publicly, I think he wanted to go to the Rockets — which is why his agent structured the offer sheet that way. Put it this way: If you're Lin, and you're a relatively private guy who just wants to get paid to play basketball without being thrust in the middle of some ego-ridden soap opera, would you rather lead a team like the Rockets — where they'd build their entire offense around you and let you do your thing — or would you rather play on the Knicks with two other point guards and two me-first scorers who can't succeed unless the offense is running through them at all times? And by the way — the biggest loser here was Tyson Chandler, who loved playing with Lin and actually touched the ball once in a while with him. He'll never see it again. Good luck setting those screens for the next three years, Tyson. 作者注2：无论Jeremy Lin在大众面前怎麽说，我认为他想去火箭——这也是为什麽 他的经纪人设置了那样的合约结构。这麽说：如果你是Jeremy Lin，而且你是一个相 对喜欢私人空间的人，只想靠着打球挣钱，不想被推上自负驱使的肥皂剧的风口浪尖 ，你是倾向於去带领火箭这样一支球队——在那儿，整个球队的进攻围绕着你进行， 你也可以做自己想做的事？——还是会选择尼克这样的球队，与两个控卫还有两个自 我至上、不围绕他们打进攻就成功不了的得分手搭档？顺便提一句——这场闹剧中最 大的输家是Tyson Chandler，他爱和Jeremy Lin一起打球，在与Lin搭档的那段时间 里，他时不时地还能获得一些球权。而这种好日子再也不会有了。接下来三年就打掩 护/挡人吧，祝你好运，Tyson。 [译者注：译者目测Simmons在吐槽Anthony说Lin的合约荒唐。] You don't pull that sneaky shit with me after everything I did for you! I'm James F-ing Dolan! Go to Houston for all I care, you'll never be seen again! 我做了这一切以後，你那些鬼鬼祟祟的狗屎般的把戏对我都失去了作用！我是 James F-ing Dolan！去休士顿吧，我才不在乎呢，我再也不会见你了！ That was the only plausible explanation: pure, unadulterated spite. When you're hopelessly over the cap like New York (thanks, Amar'e!) and you've already proven that you don't care about being fiscally responsible, why allow a 23-year-old asset to leave for nothing … especially someone who resonated with your fan base like no Knick since Latrell Sprewell? Lin would have been underpaid in years one and two and violently overpaid in year three (including luxury tax ramifications, Lin would have cost the Knicks $43 million in year three). Well … so what? What about Lin's value overseas, or even his undeniable effect on MSG's stock? (It couldn't have been a coincidence that Houston, the one team that knew exactly how valuable someone with a Far East marketing reach could be, was the one that pursued Lin.) Couldn't Lin have helped the Knicks contend next season? And after that, they could have traded him in year two or year three to a team with cap space (or for a better player) with other pieces thrown in. Who said they had to keep him for all three years? Why not bring him back and figure the rest out later? 这是唯一比较靠谱的解释：纯粹地、完全地出於怨气。当你的薪金总额像纽约一样无 可救药的时候（多谢你，Amare！）而且事实也证明你完全不担心财政，那为什麽让 一个23岁的人才白白溜走...特别是Latrell Sprewell之後还没有尼克球员能在球迷 中引起如此大的轰动呢。（如果尼克跟进合约）Jeremy Lin前两年拿的薪水会比较低 ，而在第三年他的薪水会异常之高（算上豪华税罚款，尼克三年里会在Lin身上花 4300万美元）。好吧...这又怎样？Lin在大洋彼岸的商业价值有多大？甚至他对麦迪 逊广场花园（MSG）股价绝对意义上的影响力又有多大？（休士顿这支深谙遥远东方市 场价值的球队加入Jeremy Lin的争夺中可不是巧合。）他难道不能帮助尼克在下赛季 中保持竞争力吗？退一步讲，他们也可以在第二年或者第三年搭上其他砝码把Lin交易 到一个有薪金空间的球队（或者换一个更好的球员）。谁说他们就得把Lin留三年？ 为什麽不留下他，其他的再慢慢观察？ For everyone dismissing last season's Linsanity binge as something of a fluke, here's a news flash for you: This isn't baseball. This isn't Kevin Maas or Phil Plantier catching fire for a few weeks before the league figured them out. I watched those games. Even in a somewhat small sample size, Lin proved that he's either a quality starter (best-case scenario) or something of a rich man's J.J. Barea, an irrational confidence guy who gives you instant offense off the bench (worst-case scenario). Letting an asset leave for nothing? Really stupid. Letting that asset leave because you'd rather spend that money on Jason Kidd (39 years old, effectively washed-up), Marcus Camby (on his last legs) and Ray Felton (the most loathed Trail Blazer maybe ever)? That's really stupid AND an appallingly bad business decision. And by the way … 对於每一个把上赛季「Linsanity」热当成侥幸成功的人来说，这有一则简讯：这可 不是棒球。这也不是Kevin Maas和Phil Plantier（补注）在联盟发现他们几周後大 红大紫。 我看了那几场比赛。尽管样本有些小，但Lin证明了他要麽是一个合格的 先发（最好的情况），要麽是富人版的J.J. Barea，带着荒谬的自信从板凳上给你带 来即插即用的进攻（最差的情况）。白白放走这样一位人才？真的很愚蠢。放走这样 以为人才，因为你宁愿给Jason Kidd（39岁，已经死在沙滩上了），Marcus Camby（ 苟延残喘中）还有Ray Felton（也许是史上最令拓荒者讨厌的球员）合约？这真的很 愚蠢而且也是一个令人毛骨悚然的商业决定。而且... （补注：两者皆为菜鸟赛季表现最亮眼的前大联盟选手，昙花一现的代表。） "Tears aren't a woman's only weapon. The best one's between your legs."3 “眼泪不是女人唯一的武器。最好武器在你两腿之间。”（注3） SPOILER ALERT — This quote was uttered by Cersei, the incestuous queen who cracks the short list of the most evil female characters in TV history. She doesn't have a single redeeming quality other than her love for her children … who, of course, were little creepy incest babies. Needless to say, she's hot and I'm attracted to her. 作者注3：注意——这句话是瑟曦所说，瑟曦是一位乱伦皇后。她打破了电视剧历史 上所有蛇蠍女人的共有特徵，除了对孩子的爱她没有任何附加技能...当然，她还会 乱伦。不用说，她很性感，而我被她吸引了。 Smart advice (at least in medieval times) for the entire Knicks fan base. You only have one weapon as fans: The right to stop supporting your team. I hate to break it to you, but you have a better chance of watching this entire song 100 times in a row without stopping than seeing Dolan sell the Knicks. He will own your team until he dies, or until he's electrocuted by a suicidal microphone during a JD and the Straight Shot concert (whatever comes first). That's another 30 to 40 years. With Brooklyn launching a second New York team next October, you have a natural out — a one-time-only chance to run from Dolan, switch local allegiances and never look back. You could also renounce the Knicks and become an NBA widow. Or, you could be a loyal sap, remain a Knicks fan and be perpetually bitter … but at the very least, sleep well at night knowing that you stuck with your boys through thick and thin. I support any of those three choices. Either way, it's a shame that one of the best fan bases in any sport is saddled with an owner like that. 给全体尼克球迷的聪明的建议（至少在中世纪有效）。作为球迷你只有一个武器： 停止支持你的主队。我不喜欢把一切都挑明了，但你不间断地把这首歌（ http://0rz.tw/rvyPO）听100遍的可能性都比你看到Dolan卖掉尼克的可能性要大。 除非等到他老死或者等到他在“ JD and the Straight ”的音乐会上被自杀麦克 风电死（我第一时间想到了这种情况），他都会是这支球队的老板。这又是30到40 年啊。十月份布鲁克林就会降临第二支纽约球队，你自然就有了逃离苦海的机会— —唯一远离Dolan的机会，换一支当地的球队作主队，然後再也不回头。当然你也可 以休掉尼克，成为无主队的单身球迷。或者，你也可以死忠，依旧作为一个尼克球 迷，然後终身品嚐苦涩...但至少，在知道不管发生任何情况你都得支持你的球员们 这点之後，你要能睡得安稳。我支持这三种选择的任意一种。不管怎麽选，在任何体 育运动中，如此有粉丝基础的运动队拥有这麽一位老板都是莫大的耻辱。 [译者注：JD and the Straight是Dolan组建的爵士乐队。] -- 这篇谈休赛季交易的稿子里大量穿插了冰与火之歌改编美剧《权力游戏》的台词， 内容相当有趣，除了Lin以外的部分也值得一读喔。 --

※ 发信站: 批踢踢实业坊(ptt.cc) ◆ From: 118.169.42.163 ※ 编辑: shadowydark 来自: 118.169.42.163 (08/01 04:16)