这篇大意是在说统计数字的有趣, 36% 三分命中率不代表每十次投篮就会进3.6颗 有21场Kidd三分命中率高於五成, 34场高於四成 并称赞Kidd是NBA有史以来最聪明的球员之一, 他懂得他的三分球对现阶段球队的重要性 也预期接下来的比赛Blazer会开始不让Kidd有这麽大的空档, 但也意味着其他人会有更 多的空档 James Day on the NBA playoffs: A closer look at Jason Kidd’s shooting Numbers are the key to understanding sports. And I’ve been wallowing in NBA numbers the past few days. Partly, to acquire ammunition to use against pundits who do not understand numbers, and also, hopefully, to learn a few things. Jason Kidd of the Mavericks made 9 of 14 shots from the field and 6 of 10 3-pointers Saturday in Dallas’ 89-81 win against the Blazers in game one of their Western Conference playoff series. Blazers broadcaster Brian Wheeler nearly busted a gasket as Kidd kept hitting 3-pointers. Why? Because Wheeler’s numbers showed that Kidd finished the season shooting an average of 36 percent from the field per game. Let’s look at these numbers a bit more closely. First, an average is just that, an average. Wheeler seemed to think that because he is a 36 percent shooter that Kidd should make 3.6 out of every 10 shots. This is silly. A .200 batter in the big leagues is not going to get 2 hits out of every 10 at-bats. A running back who averages 4.0 yards per carry is not going to rush for four yards every time he carries the ball. I ran Kidd’s numbers for the entire season. He had 21 games in which he shot better than 50 percent from the field. And he had 34 games in which he shot better than 40 percent on 3-pointers. That doesn’t make him a great shooter, but it means that there are plenty of nights in which he can hurt you. Plus, nearly two-thirds of Kidd’s field goal attempts in the regular season (391) were 3-pointers than two-pointers (205). And he hit 34 percent of his 3-pointers, which because of the increased value of a 3-pointer calculates to 51 percent on two-pointers. Also, Jason Kidd is a smart player, one of the smartest in NBA history. Is he going to just heave up 3-pointers willy nilly? Of course not. He wants to keep the defense from packing in around the paint and he recognizes the higher value of a successful 3-pointer. And he also recognizes when a team is letting him have his shot, as the Blazers did Saturday. If he Blazers clamp down on Kidd’s 3-point shooting Tuesday that will just leave something open somewhere else. That’s the beauty of the NBA playoffs. The matchups and the adjustments and the counter-adjustments and the counters to those adjustments. I got interested enough that I read every Mavericks box this season. And it was time well-spent. --

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