Indians now need a first baseman by Matt R. Lyons, Dec 15, 2017 文章来源：https://goo.gl/EZnYvK <懒人感想> Santana离队後，对於明年笑脸人的先发打线/守备影响绝对不小。 EE虽然偶尔可以守一垒，但绝对不可能转职成为正职一垒手。 Santana的离队让原本看似拥挤的内野好像空了些位置出来，Kipnis、Ramirez与Diaz 就不用再一起竞争2B/3B的位置，守备光谱较末端的1B可以交给其中一位去守。 甚至刚伤癒的Brantley也能转往一垒，降低再度受伤的风险。如果这不会影响他们在攻击 端的表现的话，或许是个选项。也是过去几篇文章大家讨论的重点：还是以目前球队阵容 来填补一垒这个洞。 不过这篇文章的作者似乎不希望这麽做，他认为球队还是需要一名正规/正职的一垒手， 而从FA市场中签下Logan Morrison是他极力推荐的选项。 所以顺手翻了这篇文章，希望与大家讨论看看~ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ In losing Carlos Santana, the Tribe’s offseason mission becomes clearer. 失去Carlos Santana後，笑脸人在今年冬季的任务将变得明确。 This should go without saying after today’s events, but I’m going to say it anyway: The Cleveland Indians need to find a first baseman. 虽然在今天的消息公布後，积极找寻一位一垒手将是件无庸置疑的事情。 但无论如何我还是要再说一次：笑脸人现在需要找寻一位可以守一垒的球员。 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ If you haven’t heard the news, Carlos Santana signed a three-year, $60 million deal with the Philadelphia Phillies earlier today, and he will be wearing a uniform other than the Tribe’s and it’s weird and icky. All reports to this point had Santana’s as the Indians’ number one option during the Winter Meetings (they even had the ability to counter offers). Now that he’s gone, finding his replacement should take precedent. 若你还没听到这个新闻，那让我告诉你：Carlos Santana将以三年六千万的薪资与费城人 合作，这也是他职业生涯首度穿上非笑脸人的球衣，这将让人感到诡异与厌恶。 截至今日为止，所有报导都认为Santana会是印地安人在冬季会议中的主要目标(它们甚至 已经相互交换合约内容了)，但最後他还是离开球队了，因此找寻一个替补他位置的一垒 手将会是球队目前最重要的事。 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Technically, the Indians do have internal options, but only technically. And they aren’t great. The most common idea is to just slap anyone and everyone who has ever picked up a glove at the position. Michael Brantley? He’s never played there and who knows how effective his bat might be, but sure! Let’s do it. Jason Kipnis? See Brantley, Michael. They could opt for Edwin Encarnacion playing first ever day, but nobody wants to see that, and it only opens another hole at designated hitter. Santana needs to be replaced, the only issue is actually finding that replacement. 严格来说，笑脸人的确还有许多替补的选项，但这些选项都不够杰出。目前最常见的想法 就是直接找球员让他移防一垒，例如Michael Brantley。 但他从未守过一垒，而且我们也不知道移防到一垒後对他的打击会有哪些影响，不过，没 错，的确可以将他列为选项之一。 那如果是让Jason Kipnis站一垒呢?抱歉，你对Brantley移防的担忧在他身上一样存在。 当然，我们可以让EE每天都在一垒垒包上亮相，但绝对没有人想看到这件事情发生，同时 这也会让球队的DH出现一个洞，还是得找一名球员来补。 所以我们需要找人代替Santana的位置，这也是目前最关键的事情。 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Personally, I’ve hopped aboard the Logan Morrison train along with Merritt Rohlfing, who wrote up a full post of the possibility of Morrison coming to a Santana-less Indians team in 2018: 我个人来说，我的想法和另一个专栏作家Merritt Rohlfing一样，希望Logan Morrison能 够成为Santana的替代品。Merritt Rohlfing写了一大篇文章关於Morrison 可以在2018年 加入少了Santana的笑脸人： ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ See, the Indians could really use Morrison. As said before, he essentially replicated Encarnacion last year and out-hit Santana in most every metric. But he signed a prove-it deal, and he proved it. It wasn't just last year either. From the beginning of July 2016 to the end of this season, a stretch of 673 plate appearances, he put up a 131 wRC+, walked 13 percent of the time and struck out 24.5 percent of the time. He was every bit as good as Santana. Which means he will be more expensive, though it's hard to convince me that he'll be as pricey as Santana. Reports are something in the 10-12 million range, whereas Santana could be slated for $15 million a year or more. 你看，Morrison在笑脸人将会得到好的舞台发挥，如同我之前所说的，他将会复制EE在去 年的情况，同时能击出比Santana更多的安打。他在去年签下一纸需要证明自己身手的短 约，而他也的确证明了自己的身价。而且不尽在去年，他早已多次证明自己的实力了。从 2016年七月到今年季末，他在673个PA中缴出了131 wRC+的成绩，13%的保送率与24.5的被 三振率。与Santana相比，他的成绩毫不逊色。但他出色的表现意味着现在要签下他可能 需要花更多的钱，虽然他无法说服我支付他跟Santana一样的薪水。现在的消息大都认为 他的薪水大概会在一千万到一千二百万之间，而Santana 预计可以获得一千五百万 年薪，甚或是更多。 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Much of Morrison’s 2017 numbers were inflated by the juiced ball, batters uppercutting, or however else you want to explain batters slugging more home runs thane ever before. But unless Major League Baseballs sees a major problem with the new face of the game (or if it really is just a new approach to hitting that worked so well for so many players), then it’s not completely unreasonable for Morrison to hit for power again in 2018. Even Steamer, a robot number-crunching machine that doesn’t account for the idea of new baseballs and such, projects Morrison to hit 25 home runs next year. Morrison在2017年的表现多少受到弹力球、飞球革命或是其他任何你所能想到造成打者长 打增加的原因的影响，这使得去年整个联盟的全垒打产量比以往更多。但除非大联盟愿意 正视这个改变比赛风貌的问题(或者其实这刚好只是许多打者都找到新的打击方式)，否则 对2018年的Morrison而言，要缴出和上季相同的成绩并非不可能。即使是Steamer，这个 能够进行大量数据运算的机器人，都无法解释这种改变，但他还是预测Morrison 在明年 能够缴出25轰的数据。 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Morrison’s 2017 season wasn’t fueled solely by his power, either. The 30-year-old walked 13.5 percent, the most since his rookie season. That lead to a career-high .353 on-base percentage and it was a big factor in a wRC+ (130) that was higher than every batter on the Indians not named Jose Ramirez or Edwin Encarnacion last season. Morrison 在2017年球季的表现并非仅依靠他的力量，这位即将三十岁球员在去年的被保 送率高达13.5%，仅次於他的菜鸟年。这也导致他的OBS是生涯新高的0.353，因为OBS对於 wRC+的影响很大，造成他的wRC+高达130，在上季笑脸人打线中仅次於Jose Ramirez与EE 。 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ The hope is that other teams think Morrison’s season was a fluke and that he can’t replicate it. If that isn’t the case, the Indians aren’t completely in the lurch. There are always options at first base, even if they aren’t the greatest. Maybe Indians fans would grow to love Eric Hosmer’s sub-par play at first base and his stupid beard. Or maybe, like Morrison, Yonder Alonso’s 28 home runs and 132 wRC+ wasn’t a complete aberration, He, too, walked more than ever and was great at spreading the ball all over the field. Options are out there, now it’s up to the Indians to go out and get one instead of sitting back on what they have and hoping for the best. 目前只希望其他球队会认为Morrison在上季的表现只是运气好，而且他并不能将上季的表 现复制到明年，而放弃与他接触。但即使事情没有想像中的顺利，笑脸人也还不至於绝望 ，还有许多选项可供选择，虽然这些选项并非最完美的。也许笑脸人的球迷会开始慢慢喜 欢上Eric Hosmer在一垒上低於水准的演出以及他那愚蠢的胡子，他的被保送率同样在去 年达到生涯新高，同时他的传球能力也相当不错。 现在，选项都已经在那边了，就看笑脸人会如何在市场中大展身手，而非只是坐在家中看着 目前他们所拥有的球员并乐观认为所有事情都一定会往好的方向发展。 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ --

※ 发信站: 批踢踢实业坊(ptt.cc), 来自: 140.115.36.223 ※ 文章网址: https://webptt.com/cn.aspx?n=bbs/Indians/M.1513572983.A.EF3.html ※ 编辑: kobec (140.115.36.223), 12/18/2017 13:09:03 不小心脑补了一下 谢谢提醒 ※ 编辑: kobec (140.115.36.223), 12/18/2017 14:12:21