隔了一年,我们终於又重新回到季後赛的起点，这次我们第一轮的对手是洋基。 虽然我觉得其实今年季後赛每一只球队都不好打,但还是期许球队可以关关难过关关过! 那麽就让我们从这篇官网的位置分析开始。 https://tinyurl.com/y79auaev MLB.com Columnist Mike Petriello Yankees-Indians: ALDS position-by-position Cleveland took five of seven meetings between the clubs this season ‧ ALDS Game 1: Tonight, 7:30 ET on FS1 Cleveland is going to be favored in the AL Division Series presented by Doosan and rightfully so, since the Indians did win 102 games and made history by winning 22 straight just a few weeks ago. But for as great as the Indians may be -- and they are -- don't forget that the Yankees specifically built a bullpen for the playoffs. Expect to see the formula they used in the Wild Card Game repeated, and it's not like Terry Francona won't do the same with his own collection of ace relievers. 刚创下22连胜纪录的印地安人是季後赛大热门,但拥有钢铁牛棚的洋基也不是省油的灯。 所以哪队比较有优势? 让我们一个位置一个位置拆开来看。 So who has the edge? Let's break it down position by position to find strengths on each side. (Batting numbers are presented with traditional BA/OBP/SLG and Weighted Runs Created Plus, or wRC+, a park- and league-adjusted number where 100 is set as "league average" for easy comparison.) Catcher If Cleveland has anything resembling a weakness, it's probably behind the plate, where Yan Gomes and Roberto Perez (plus a little Francisco Mejia) combined to hit just .221/.300/.384 (81 wRC+). Gary Sanchez, on the other hand, has become a superstar, hitting .278/.345/.531, 130 wRC+, 33 homers). Yes, he's got an issue with passed balls, but he's also a good framer (+9 runs, tied for 10th overall, just behind Perez) with a cannon of an arm. Advantage: Yankees 如果印地安人有什麽看似弱点的地方,那或许是他们的捕手。 作者说我们家的 Gomes + Perez合计只贡献了 81 wRC+, 但洋基的 Gary Sanchez 则是有全明星等级的 130 wRC+, 另外他虽然有时会漏球,但手套尾劲挺好,名列前十(只输我们家Perez一名) 同时有着强肩可以狙杀跑者。 优势:洋基 (综合攻守两端表现,洋基Sanchez拥有巨大的影响力,甚至连漏球的缺点也有显着的改善 他比较可惜的是偷打人被禁赛之前打击手感热到发烫,但被禁赛之後手感就跟Judge交换了 但我们印地安人的两位捕手,对球队也绝对是加分项,81wRC+看似低於平均不少, 但垒上有 人时,Gomes擅长捕刀,Perez则是逆境oo,两人本季合力贡献了94分打点,不管这能力明年能 否复制,但对方的投手最好不要掉以轻心。 而防守端,洋基的狙杀率可以排到全联盟第五或第六, 但季後赛球队中狙杀率最好的球队; 依序是印地安人,落矶,响尾蛇,然後才是洋基。在双方都有不少快腿的情况下,垒间的攻防 应该也是这场比赛的一个看点。 而手套尾劲以及与投手的搭配上,无论是从数据面还是从我们投手群的表现上,我们家捕手 都是无可挑剔的,而在球季的最後两周,Tito也尽可能改变在例行赛投捕固定搭配的模式, 让Perez更多的与不同的投手都有搭配到,但无论是谁先发,本垒後方我都很放心! ) First Base Carlos Santana did basically the same thing in 2017 that he does every year, which is to say that he showed outstanding on-base skills and strong power, hitting .259/.363/.455 (117 wRC+) with 23 homers. We're not kidding about the "same thing he does every year" part, either; for his career, dating back to 2010, Santana's overall line is a nearly identical .249/.365/.445 (123 wRC+). While Greg Bird has a high level power upside, he also missed most of 2016 and 2017 due to injuries, and hit just .190/.288/.422 (86 wRC+) when he did play this year. Advantage: Indians 一垒部分,我们这边有表现稳定的选球魔人Santana,洋基则是伤癒复出的优质新秀Bird 优势:印地安人 (这边的话还是先说洋基, Bird九月近况颇佳,连守备也不只一次大劈腿美技接球,以现在 这个时间点来说他对洋基即使不是加分,也至少是持平。 但印地安人这边则是当年我们透过一宗抢案(用Blake从道奇交易)得到的Santana最後一年 合约年的他,本季的走势有点像皇家的Hosmer,开低走高,七八月热得发烫,虽然九月中旬有 点小伤冷了几场,但休养後已经满血复活,左右开弓的他是我们打线上的重要力量,相信他 无论是为了球队,还是为了自己的身价,都会在十月拿出百分之两百的表现,加油! ) Second Base That this one isn't close -- and it's not meant as a slight to Starlin Castro, who had a solid enough line of .300/.338/.454 (110 wRC+), though he slumped down the stretch. It's based entirely on how great Jose Ramirez was for a second season in a row, sliding back and forth between second and third base as needed and putting up elite offense (.318/.374/.583, 148 wRC+) while doing so. Advantage: Indians 二垒部分:前小熊新秀Castro有个不错的球季,九月的最後一周也逐渐加温,但要拿他跟本 季美联MVP JRamirez来比还是有点差距。 优势:印地安人 (这边我要讲的就是,虽然JRamirez可以守二垒跟三垒, 但他最舒服的守备位置是二垒,所 以考量到他是我们状况最好的打者,也是22连胜中的主力二垒手,Tito不想轻易移动他拐到 气也是很合理的,但必要时我们也可以出大绝招把Kipnis移到二垒。 ) Shortstop While Francisco Lindor obviously gets the edge here, having hit .273/.337/.505 (118 wRC+) with 33 homers and fantastic defense, it's at least worth noting that Didi Gregorius makes this a conversation. Sir Didi had a pretty great yea r of his own, putting up 25 homers (plus a game-tying three run shot in the Wild Card game) to go with a .287/.318/.478 (107 wRC+) line,as he became the regula r Yankees cleanup hitter. That said, he's not Lindor. No one is. Advantage: Indians 洋基游击霸Didi今年很强,但Lindor今年有着一个不可思议的球季。 优势:印地安人 (其实二游的部分跟捕手给我的感觉有点像, 印地安人都是优势方, 但洋基的二游对球队 也都是加分项目。 不过Lindor除了球场上攻守两端不可思议的表现,他交友广阔以及笑口常开的场外表现不 但让更多人认识了Mr.Smile这个绰号, 更让他以小市场球队球员的身分进入球衣销售前十 笑有出头天,刘备真的没有骗人! ) Third Base Though Ramirez started by far the most games here, and Yandy Diaz was both the Opening Day third baseman and the primary starter in September, it's likely to be Giovanny Urshela who gets the call at third, with Ramirez at second and Diaz not on the roster. Urshela has a reputation as an elite defender, but his career batting line in parts of two seasons is just .225/.273/.314 (57 wRC+), so Todd Frazier gets the easy edge here. Frazier's a pretty good third baseman himself, and he showed both on-base skills and power after being traded to the Yankees, hitting .222/.365/.423 (114 wRC+) with New York. Advantage: Yankees 洋基这边是好人Todd Frazier,他本季打击率很低,但上垒率跟长打率还是有不错的水准, 虽然埋伏在第九棒,但还是不能掉以轻心。印地安人则是守备组 Urshela。 优势:洋基 (Urshela本季对洋基曾经一场出现两个五星级的守备,虽然还是个新人,但我认为他已经是 准金手套了[就是说如果没有Machado,金手套就可以直接颁给他了。] 季後赛虽然偶尔也 会出现打击战,但总的来说,在王牌对王牌的比赛中,投手战的机率还是高一点,所以教练 这边用守备组我觉得可以。) Left Field Though Michael Brantley made the roster, it will likely be as a pinch-hitter, since he hasn't played the outfield since injuring his ankle back on Aug. 8. That means left field is likely to be a job share between righty Austin Jackson (.318/.387/.482, 131 wRC+) and lefty Lonnie Chisenhall (.288/.360/.521, 129 wRC+), who both had good years. Even though those lines are both better than Brett Gardner had (.264/.350/.428, 108 wRC+), we're calling this one a tie, because Gardner's a better defender and baserunner. He also took nearly 100 more plate appearances than Chisenhall and Jackson did, combined. Advantage: Tie 作者认为这边是平手。 (Austin Jackson是本季我们赌到的小乐透,本季走势是开高走高,九月状况更好,虽然他 比较擅长打左投,但如果吃生蚝手感还没回来, 他也可以对右投就是了;另外他的防守跟 跑垒也在水平之上,所以他可能不是单纯对左投上场而已。) Center Field Expect to see the Yankees use both Aaron Hicks (.266/.372/.475, 127 wRC+) and Jacoby Ellsbury (.264/.348/.402, 101 wRC+) in center, and that's a pretty good duo to have. Hicks had a breakout season when healthy, and as the owner of baseball's strongest outfield arm, got the Wild Card start over Ellsbury mostly for his defense. Meanwhile, Cleveland lost Bradley Zimmer to a broken hand on Sept. 10, so it opted for a late-season conversion of long-time second baseman Jason Kipnis to center. While the high-strikeout profile of the pitching staff made it a worthwhile risk, he's still got just 11 games of experience there, and he hit just .232/.291/.414 (82 wRC+) this year anyway. Advantage: Yankees 洋基这边有金手套Hicks 跟四月九月打很好的Ellsbury轮换... 印地安人这边则是推出当初选秀时以中外野守备选入的Kipnis重操旧业。 优势:洋基 (这边球队推出Kipnis有两个考量,一方面是加强攻击[而三垒则是加强防守],另一方面则 是给Kipnis这位伴随球队度过重建期的球队元老一个角色,让他可以做出贡献! 虽然他很多年没守过中外野了,但毕竟是老本行,球季的最後两周看的出来他无论是打击 还是守备都是渐入佳境,而且Tito也跟他说了放手去打,责任我来扛,我觉得他可以。 另外我们九月时常常在比赛後段换上两个金手套等级的守备组,原本以为在40人名单缩回 25人名单以後看不到 Urshela 跟 Greg Allen了,没想到最後居然两个人都入选了,守备 超强的Allen被认为颇有当年Lofton的风采,当我们在比赛後段取得领先时,他应该会常态 性的上场接管中外野防区。) Right Field Jay Bruce gave Cleveland everything they expected and more after being acquired from the Mets in August, hitting .248/.331/.477 (111 wRC+) with seven of his career-high 36 homers after returning to Ohio. But let's be honest here: this is the Aaron Judge show. Judge erased any memories of his summer slump with a massive September (.311/.463/.889, 233 wRC+), then pounded the hardest-hit ball of the Wild Card Game, a 108.5 mph homer off Jose Berrios. He's a better outfielder than you think, too, and he may just win the Most Valuable Player award. Advantage: Yankees 即使 Bruce打出了生涯新高的36轰,但这边优势还是要给击出52轰的Judge。 优势:洋基 (Bruce 今年状况不错, 而且他对印地安人很熟悉也融入很快,虽然他中间曾经因为风灾募 款跟脖子酸痛而影响表现, 但从他加入球队以後, 球队胜率一直保持高档,希望他在季後 赛可以拿出最好的集中力。) Designated Hitter With an all-righty Cleveland rotation, don't expect to see much Matt Holliday (.231/.316/.432, 98 wRC+) here. Instead, it's more likely that Chase Headley (.273/.352/.406, 104 wRC+) and Ellsbury will get starts at DH, and while Joe Girardi can play matchups with that trio, none can measure up to Edwin Encarnacion (.258/.377/.504, 132 wRC+, 38 homers), who lived up to expectations in his first season in Cleveland, essentially matching his career averages (.265/.354/.499, 127 wRC+). He remains one of baseball's most feared sluggers. Advantage: Indians 印地安人的EE很不错,洋基那边可能会用轮的。 优势:印地安人 (EE本季在印地安人算是开低走高,一开始可能是因为太冷或是因为怕生还没融入球队,所 以没法放开来打,但那都没关系,因为他六八九月彻底热开了! 有基迷朋友跟我说他觉得EE今年只是帐面成绩好看,关键时刻就软了;但我觉得关键时刻 是在十月,他最好的一面你还没看到呢! 而且,退一万步说,今年的EE再怎样也比我们去年的主炮 Napoli 给对手的压力更大! Napoli去年更多的贡献其实是在休息室的无形贡献,我很感谢他,但我很开心看到今年球 队签下 EE 取代他主炮的位置。) Starting Pitchers Over the final two months of the season, Corey Kluber threw 89 innings, and the numbers are almost unreal: 104 strikeouts, nine walks, 1.42 ERA. And while it's true that Kluber won't start until Game 2, this isn't just about him, either. By one measure, this group, including Carlos Carrasco, Trevor Bauer, and Josh Tomlin, has an argument to be called the best rotation of all time. Whether or not you buy that isn't the point; the point is that while the Yankees do have Sonny Gray and Masahiro Tanaka, CC Sabathia isn't what he once was, and Luis Severino's Wild Card Game implosion leaves some uncertainty. The Yankees' rotation is good. The Cleveland rotation is great. Advantage: Indians 洋基的投手评价:good 印地安人的投手评价: great 优势:印地安人 Relief Pitchers You saw what happened in the Wild Card Game, right? We called this group "baseball's scariest unit" back in August, and all they did to beat the Twins was to offer 26 outs worth of one-run baseball, without even getting to Dellin Betances. Yes, Andrew Miller remains elite, and yes, the idea of adding starters Danny Salazar and Mike Clevinger to Cody Allen, Bryan Shaw, and Tyler Olson means that Cleveland's 'pen is pretty stacked itself -- it's not hard to see this ALDS as being entirely about two great bullpens. But the Yankees are specifically built for this, and while it's not a huge edge, it's an edge. Chad Green, David Robertson, Tommy Kahnle, Aroldis Chapman, Adam Warren, and yes, Betances, are that good. Advantage: Yankees 洋基的牛棚评价:great 印地安人的牛棚评价:goooooood 优势:洋基 (其实球队两周前就规划Clevinger要在季後赛进牛棚,扮演类似去年Miller的角色,也在 最後两周尽量帮助他做出调适,同时季末call上来的Olson也不断通过Tito给他越来越 重要的各种考验,成为球队调度中重要的左投手,再加上季中补进的Smith, 我觉得我们 的牛棚很好很强壮, 如果去年就有这样的牛棚,我们可能可以少2~3场败仗... 当然季末有些疲惫的Allen跟Shaw降低了我们整体的评价,但总的来说,比起去年过度依赖 三头牛,今年重要关头上场的人选可能多达六个,感觉还不错! ) 那就写到这边,大家明天加油! --

※ 发信站: 批踢踢实业坊(ptt.cc), 来自: 118.233.85.28 ※ 文章网址: https://webptt.com/cn.aspx?n=bbs/Indians/M.1507187188.A.3AB.html ※ 编辑: goopa (180.176.47.154), 10/06/2017 12:28:15