Inbox: Bourn due for rise in stolen bases? Beat reporter Jordan Bastian answers Indians fans' questions By Jordan Bastian / MLB.com | 1/6/2014 2:03 P.M. ET http://ppt.cc/8Dpt Last year, I was surprised to see a decrease in stolen bases from Michael Bourn. He had 61 in 2011 and 42 in '12. Now that Drew Stubbs has been traded, do you anticipate a more aggressive Bourn on the bases this season? Or do you think 20-25 stolen bases can be expected again? -- Betsy W., Perrysburg, Ohio 我相当讶异Michael Bourn去年的盗垒竟然减少这麽多。 他在11年61盗，12年时也还有42盗呢。 现在Stubbs被交易掉了，你认为Bourn在垒上会更积极吗？ 还是你觉得他仍然只能有20～25盗？ -- Betsy W., Perrysburg, Ohio I'm not sure trading Stubbs to the Rockies will have an impact on Bourn's individual baserunning performance. Whether Stubbs was still on the team or not, I believe Bourn would still be taking a more aggressive approach on the bases in 2014. 我不确定把Stubbs交易到洛矶会不会对Bourn的个人跑垒有什麽影响。 但我相信不管Stubbs是不是在队上，Bourn在14年会更具垒上破坏力。 Bourn repeatedly cited an unfamiliarity with the American League as a possible explanation for his decline in stolen bases in 2013, when he ended with 23 in the first season with the Indians. It's also worth noting that the Major Leagues as a whole last year turned in the lowest stolen-base total (2,693) since 2005. Of course, that alone doesn't explain Bourn's drop-off. Bourn对美联的不熟悉可能是他13年盗垒次数下降的原因，他在克里夫兰的第一年 只有23次盗垒，不过值得注意的是全联盟去年只有2693盗，2005年以来最少。 所以单是刚刚提到的也许不能解释Bourn的下滑。 I'd expect an improvement from Bourn, but I'm not sure he's going to be a threat to steal 50 or 60 bases like he was in the past. His percentage of stolen bases to stolen-base opportunities has decreased in each of the past three seasons (down to 9.6 percent in 2013 from 21.3 percent in '10). Bourn's success rate has also dropped to 72 percent in 2012-13 after sitting at 83 percent from 2007-11. 我预期Bourn会反弹，但会不会像以往一样动辄5、60盗就是个问题。 他盗垒/盗垒机会比这三年持续下滑，10年的21.3％到去年的9.6％。 他的盗垒成功率也从07-11年的83％跌到12-13年的72％。 Familiarity with the AL will surely help in 2014, but another key for Bourn will be improving his on-base percentage. In '13, Bourn had a .316 OBP (lowest since '08), compared to a .348 OBP across the 2009-12 seasons, when he averaged 54 stolen bases per year. Bourn's strikeout rate went up and his walk rate down last season, so returning closer to his career norms would be a step in the right direction. 对美联熟悉一点可能会有所帮助，但另一个关键是Bourn能不能增加他的上垒率。 去年Bourn只有.316的上垒率，08年以来最差。他09-12年平均上垒率是.348，每年54盗。 Bourn had 41.6 percent of his plate appearances develop into stolen-base chances in 2013. That figure decreased for the second straight season, but it also was higher than in 2010 (40.3) and '08 (35.2), when he stole 52 and 41 bases, respectively. That shows that Bourn didn't capitalize on his chances as he had in years past. I'd wager that he's aiming to correct that trend next season. Bourn在13年有41.6％的打席会出现盗垒机会。虽然连两季都在下滑，但这比10年的40.3％ 和08年的35.2％都高，当时他分别52盗和41盗。这显示出Bourn并没有如以往善加利用他的 机会。我打赌他这季会好好修正方针的。 Do you expect the Indians to make any late free-agency moves similar to last year, or will they stay put? My inclination is that they are maxed on money spent, but I would hope they could find someone to help bolster the rotation or lineup. -- Ken G., Rocky River, Ohio 你会预期印地安人像去年一样後期才在自由市场上有动作，还是他们会啥都不干？ 我个人倾向他们有一定预算，但我还是希望他们可以找到人来充实轮值或打线。 -- Ken G., Rocky River, Ohio The Indians had a unique situation last offseason with a protected first-round Draft pick and an extra compensatory pick. Due to that, Cleveland was able to sign both Nick Swisher and Bourn to long-term deals, and still have a normal Draft in June. That situation played a role in the decision to sign Bourn in February. 印地安人去年的状况比较特殊：被保护的第一轮选秀权和额外的补偿选秀。 因此，克里夫兰能够同时用长约签下Nick Swisher和Michael Bourn，并在六月照常选秀 。这使得球队到二月时才决定签下Bourn。 I wouldn't expect a repeat scenario this spring with any players that would cost the Tribe a Draft pick. I could see Cleveland remaining a player on some second-tier free agents to potentially strengthen the rotation or bullpen, especially if the price tags drop as Spring Training nears. The pitching staff remains the biggest area of focus for the club. 我不觉得今年春天会出现一样的情形，尤其签任何一个投手都会让球队损失选秀权时。 我反而预期球队会用一些二线FA来强化轮值或牛棚，特别在接近春训时，球员价格都会 下降。投手部分仍然是目前球团焦点所在。 If Cleveland addresses its lineup any further, I'd expect it to be via trade and not through free agency. Position players added as free agents at this point would likely consist of depth signings, which could mean some non-roster invites. Every team adds a handful of players via that route, and the Indians have had plenty of success doing so in recent years. 如果克里夫兰想再加强打线的话，我猜应该是会用交易而不是由FA来。 自由市场来的野手主要是由球队深度决定，所以才签了一些小联盟春训邀请约。 用这种方式每一队都可以加入一票选手，而这几年来印地安人也不乏成功的例子。 If no teams make an offer to Ubaldo Jimenez and he goes unsigned into Spring Training, would the Indians be able to sign him for a cheaper price than the qualifying offer? -- Josiah A., Avon, Ohio 如果到春训前Ubaldo Jimenez一直都没签约，印地安人有机会用比合格报价还便宜 的价钱签下他吗？ -- Josiah A., Avon, Ohio That's the risk Jimenez took when he declined the Indians' one-year, $14.1 million qualifying offer earlier this winter. Cleveland did so in order to secure Draft pick compensation in the event Jimenez signs with another team. To date, that hasn't happened, and the right-hander's asking price could fall as the season nears. If it gets to the point where a one- or two-year contract is possible, then the Indians might again be players to re-sign Big U. 这就是当Jimenez拒绝印地安人一年14.1M的合格报价时所冒的风险。 克里夫兰当时便是以此保证可能的补偿选秀权。不过至今，这仍没发生，但有关Jimenez 的询价会随球季到来而递减。如果一到两年约是可能的话，那印地安人很有机会签回他。 What are the odds of the Indians putting up a bid for Masahiro Tanaka? -- Chris S., Westerville, Ohio 印地安人在田中竞赛中，出高价的可能是多少？ -- Chris S., Westerville, Ohio While I haven't heard officially one way or the other, I don't see why the Indians wouldn't at least post the $20 million bid to secure a negotiation window with Tanaka. If Tanaka signs elsewhere, Cleveland isn't on the hook to pay that fee. Now, I'm not expecting the Indians to win the Tanaka sweepstakes, but posting a bid makes sense for the sake of due diligence. 尽管我还没听到官方或者哪边来的说法，我想不到为什麽印地安人不出20M来试着竞标。 如果田中被其他队签走，克里夫兰也不需要付这笔钱。 目前我不觉得球队会在田中竞赛中脱颖而出，但先拿到入场权再仔细验货是很合理的事。 What accounts for the Indians' inability to sign their exiting free agents? Both Joe Smith and Matt Albers signed reasonable contracts. Why weren't the Indians competitive on them? -- Ryan M., Austin, Texas 可以解释一下为什麽印地安人留不住那些离队的自由球员吗？ Smith和Albers都签了合理价格的合约，为什麽球队不试着谈谈看？ -- Ryan M., Austin, Texas There is no universal answer -- it varies for each player. In Smith's case, the Indians did not want to offer three years at the value he sought. For Albers, Cleveland leaned against a two-year deal, especially when some in-house options have the potential to offer similar production at a lower price. With every player, the Indians have a value in mind, and they typically try to stick to that in talks 这没有一定的答案。 以Smith来说，印地安人并不想要给他要的三年约。 而Albers那边，球队不倾向两年约，特别是在农场还有同性质却更便宜的潜力新秀。 印地安人都有评估过这几个球员的价值，在谈约中他们也都很坚持自己的要价。 With the Hall of Fame announcement coming this week, I was wondering who you would vote for this year. -- Kevin R., Cleveland 名人堂选举这星期出炉，我蛮好奇你今年会投哪些人？ -- Kevin R., Cleveland I don't have a vote. If I did, here are the 10 players I'd select (in alphabetical order): Craig Biggio, Barry Bonds, Roger Clemens, Tom Glavine, Greg Maddux, Mike Mussina, Mike Piazza, Tim Raines, Frank Thomas and Alan Trammell. I don't have the space here to go into each explanation, but what I will say is that I feel the Hall of Fame is a place to recognize history -- both the good and the bad. 我并没有投票权呢。不过如果我有，我会选这十个：Craig Biggio, Barry Bonds, Roger Clemens, Tom Glavine, Greg Maddux, Mike Mussina, Mike Piazza, Tim Raines, Frank Thomas, Alan Trammell。这里就不解释我选他们的原因了。 但我只能说我觉得名人堂是个纪念历史的地方，不管是好的还是坏的。 --

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