Inbox: Is Kluber a potential trade candidate? Beat reporter Jordan Bastian answers Indians fans' questions By Jordan Bastian / MLB.com | 11/15/2013 12:55 P.M. ET http://ppt.cc/kGKb Any truth to the Mark Trumbo to Tribe rumors? He'd sure look good manning first base in 2014. -- Ricky C., South Bend, Ind. 有任何关於交易来Trumbo的消息吗？14年让他当一垒手看起来蛮有搞头的。 -- Ricky C., South Bend, Ind. 'Tis the season for rumors. Indeed, there was one floating around Twitter on Thursday night that claimed the Angels and Indians had a deal in place that would send right-hander Corey Kluber (plus a couple of Minor Leaguers) to Orange County in exchange for Trumbo. 这是个谣言四起的季节。的确星期四晚上推特出现了这则传言，天使要用Trumbo和印地安人 换右投Kluber和几个小联盟球员。 MLB.com's Angels reporter, Alden Gonzalez, asked Angels general manager Jerry Dipoto about that potential trade scenario. "If that's the case, count me as the most shocked," Dipoto said. Let's consider that about as official a debunking of an Internet trade rumor can get. That said, the concept of Cleveland targeting Trumbo to fill the perceived need for right-handed power certainly makes sense, as does L.A. looking for reinforcements on the mound. This particular trade rumor, however, appears to break down if, well, you break it down. 天使的官网记者Alden Gonzalez询问了天使GM Dipoto关於这个可能的交易状况。 Dipoto表示：「我也是你问我我才知道的。」 网路上的传言说，如果得到Trumbo，克里夫兰刚好可以填补一个强力右打；而天使那边 则得到了投手战力的加强，听起来颇合理的。 然而如果你仔细检视这个交易传言，你会发现其实没什麽搞头的。 First, consider the fact that the Indians already stand to possibly lose starters Ubaldo Jimenez and Scott Kazmir to free agency this offseason. Trading Kluber, who does not hit his arbitration years until 2016, would not make much sense unless Cleveland knows with 100 percent certainty that it can add 500-600 innings to its rotation this offseason. 首先，考量到印地安人已经准备好失去先发投手Jimenez和Kazmir了。 这时交易掉Kluber一点都不合理，他在16年才第一次薪资仲裁。 除非克里夫兰早就百分之百确定他们有办法找人来吃这500-600局。 Kluber is a near lock for the Tribe's staff for 2014. During a 16-start stretch from May 15-Aug. 5 -- prior to the pitcher sustaining a right middle finger injury -- Kluber was among the top 10-15 starters in the American League. In that span, he ranked third in strikeout-to-walk ratio (4.80), fourth in Fielding Independent Pitching (3.08), sixth in innings (99 2/3), seventh in strikeouts (96), 11th in WHIP (1.12) and 13th in ERA (3.07). That's a whole lot of promise for the future of Cleveland's rotation. 而且基本上Kluber已经确定是14年的先发一角了。在3/15到他右手中指受伤的8/5前的16场 先发中，Kluber是美联前15优秀的先发投手。那段时期，他的三振保送率是4.8，名列第三 ；吃99.2局 (6)；三振96次 (7)， WHIP是1.12 (11)，ERA 3.07(13) 。他可是克里夫兰轮 值未来值得信赖的一员。 As for Trumbo, he can hit free agency by 2017, making such a deal very one-sided financially. The right-handed slugger's value also takes a hit when looking beyond the home runs (34 in 2013 and an average of 32 from 2011-13). Trumbo's 109 OPS+ in '13 ranked below Nick Swisher (117) and slighly above Michael Brantley (107). Trumbo's 2.2 WAR would have ranked seventh on Cleveland last year, right behind Michael Bourn (2.4). 至於Trumbo，他17年会进入FA，使得这笔交易变得只有一边在花钱。 而如果你不只是看全垒打的话(13年34轰，11到13年平均32夯)，他的打击可会失色不少。 今年Trumbo的OPS+是109，排在Swisher(117)之後，Brantley(107)之前。 而他2.2的WAR在克里夫兰仅能排第七，在Michael Bourn之後(2.4) Fangraphs.com also has an interesting "dollars" metric, which attempts to translate WAR into value in the free-agent market. In 2013, Trumbo's dollar value was $12.3 million, which was between Ryan Raburn ($12.4 million) and Swisher ($12.1 million) when compared to Cleveland's roster. The power is nice -- and something Cleveland could use -- but Trumbo's value is hurt by his low on-base percentage (.294) and high strikeout total (184). Fangraphs.com将WAR换算成在FA市场的价值，在13年Trumbo的价值是12.3M，在印地安人名 单中刚好在Raburn(12.4M)和Swisher(12.1M)中间。他的长打能力很好，也有不少是克里夫 兰需要的，但他过低的上垒率(.294)和高三振(184)也损害了他的价值。 Considering the underwhelming crop of free-agent shortstops, shouldn't the Indians make a serious effort to trade Asdrubal Cabrera? Mike Aviles could serve as a stopgap in 2014, while Francisco Lindor finishes his development, right? -- Ely S., New Rochelle, N.Y. 考虑到我们之後还有超级游击大物，印地安人是不是应该努力试着交易掉Asdrubal Cabrera 呢？Aviles在14年可以先顶一下游击，等到Lindor成功养成再交棒给他，对吧？ -- Ely S., New Rochelle, N.Y. I'm not sure the Indians should be the ones pushing hard to trade Cabrera, but the club should certainly listen if other teams call about the shortstop. The 28-year-old Cabrera is coming off a down year (in which he faded in the second half for a third straight season) and is set to earn $10 million in 2014, making his value lower than in previous seasons. 我不确定印地安人会主动想交易Cabrera，但球团也会听听其他对他有兴趣的球队的报价。 28岁的Cabrera今年相当惨，在14年的薪水会是10M，这也使得他的交易价值比前几季来的低 很多。 Cleveland loves having Aviles in the backup role, so I'm not sure it would be as simple as throwing him into the starting job, if Cabrera were dealt. The Indians would likely need to add more depth, creating a cushion to avoid forcing Lindor to the Majors earlier than necessary. As we sit here today, I think the Tribe will open 2014 with Cabrera at shortstop again. 克里夫兰当然还是属意Aviles在板凳待命，所以我不确定就算Cabrerea被交易，把他丢去先 发是不是如同想像般容易。印地安人比较有可能增加内野深度，避免过早让尚未成熟的 Lindor贸然登上大联盟。不过从今天看来，我想明年开幕时Cabrera还是会是我们的先发游 击手。 Do you expect the Indians to be more conservative in the offseason, or can we expect a similar aggressive approach toward the free-agency period much as they had last year? -- Jose T., Utuado, Puerto Rico 你认为印地安人今年冬天会比较保守一点，还是会像去年一样积极寻求自由球员？ -- Jose T., Utuado, Puerto Rico Last winter, when the Indians needed to overhaul the roster, the aggressive approach made sense, especially when the team could navigate free agency with a protected Draft pick. It's also worth remembering that Cleveland made trades to free up salary space to help make the free-agent additions possible. The payroll did not jump dramatically, even with the signings of Swisher, Bourn and others. 去年冬天时，笑脸人正需要大改选手名单。所以动作积极点也是合理的，特别在当时可是不 用丢选秀权的状况下。还有值得提到的是为了加入自由球员，克里夫兰也清了不少薪资空间 出来。在签下Swisher、Bourn和其他人之後，薪资总额并没有剧烈增加。 Cleveland already made one move along those lines by releasing former closer Chris Perez, who could have earned $8 million to $9 million through arbitration this winter. That financial breathing room might help toward adding help for the rotation or bullpen. Compared to last winter, though, I do think this offseason will be more conservative. The needs are more narrowed and the team is coming off a 92-win season. 克里夫兰已经先释出了前终结者Chris Perez，他明年仲裁後可能薪资会增加成8到9M，这部 分的财政空间很可能会拿来寻求轮值或牛棚的外援。然而比起去年冬天，我认为这个休季的 确会比较保守。目前的需求少很多，而我们也才刚以92胜坐收。 What is the deal with releasing Perez? Did he have no value as trade bait? Could you explain the reason the Tribe would just let him go? Is it all related to arbitration? Thanks. -- Steve L., Westfield, Ohio 释出Perez是怎麽一回事？难道他完全没有交易价值吗？你可以解释一下为什麽印地安人就 这样地把他释出吗？难道只是因为和薪资仲裁有关吗？ -- Steve L., Westfield, Ohio Unless you're a lights-out closer, Perez's salary through arbitration would have been a high asking price for any team. Once Perez lost the closing job in September, that projected salary became far too high for a middle reliever. If he was traded, the arbitration raise would still apply for the acquiring team, which would probably have asked the Indians to chip in some salary. Add Perez's off-field drama on top of everything else, and he is a player that's very hard to trade. 除非你是一个已届退休的终结者，不然Perez的薪水在仲裁过後可能对任何队伍来说都是过 高的价钱。在Perez在九月离开终结者位置转当一般中继的同时，他预期的薪水也变得远远 超出负担。就算他被交易掉了，仲裁过後的薪资还是对他适用，这也有可能让对方要求印地 安人必须吃点薪水。再加上Perez在场外实在管不住自己的嘴巴，使得他真的是个很难交易 掉的选手。 I would wager that the Indians spent months assessing Perez's trade value, and found out that other teams weren't willing to give much for a pitching who was declining in performance, increasing in salary and creating distractions off the field. Releasing him was the best route for both sides. 我敢保证笑脸人花了好几个月来估算Perez的交易价值，然後他们发现其他队不见得会想要 这样一个表现衰退、薪资又增加、场外戏剧不断的投手。所以直接释出他可能是对双方都最 好的做法。 Despite his off year, do the Indians believe that next year we could see the Vinnie Pestano of old? -- John G., North Ridgeville, Ohio 尽管这季令人失望，明年有机会看到以前那个Pestano吗？ -- John G., North Ridgeville, Ohio Statistically, Pestano has declined virtually across the board in each of the past two years. That said, the former setup man had injury issues last season that offered a possible explanation. Cleveland is hoping that an offseason of rest will do Pestano wonders. I would expect the reliever to be worked in as a middle reliever at first, but he will certainly be aiming to regain his late-inning form. 从数据上来看，Pestano这两年的成绩可说是逐步下滑。据说我们的前布局投手去年就已经 带伤也许是个合理的解释。克里夫兰希望一个冬天的休息可以在Pestano身上发生奇蹟。我 可以想见他会先以中继身分出场，但他很可能会想拿回他在比赛後半段的角色。 What's going to happen to my favorite underdog, Lou Marson? Does he have a place on this team next year? I love what the Yanimal (Yan Gomes ) did last year, but I can't help but feel like Lou's going be hitting the road this offseason. -- Jeff T., Mentor, Ohio 接下来球队会怎麽安排输掉捕手位置的Lou Marson呢？他明年在队上还会有位置吗？我很赞 赏去年Gomes的表现，只是忍不住在想Marson说不定这个冬天就会打包去别队了。 -- Jeff T., Mentor, Ohio If Marson is healthy and recovered from the right shoulder injury that kept him sidelined for most of 2013, he still has value as a backup catcher for the Indians. Consider that Cleveland has used only two catchers in an entire season just five times in the past 25 years. Over that span, the team has averaged more than three catchers per season, including five in 2013. Even if Marson opens at Triple-A as Cleveand's third-string option, his defense, arm and ability to hit lefties help his value on the depth chart. 如果Marson保持健康，让他缺席几乎整季的右肩伤势也成功痊癒，他仍然可以在队中担任备 位捕手。毕竟克里夫兰在过去25年中，一季只用两个捕手的次数只有五次。在那段时期，平 均每季会用超过三个捕手，包括13年用了5个。甚至Marson可能开季从3A出发，他的守备、 阻杀、杀左投能力都可以增加他在名单中的价值。 --

※ 发信站: 批踢踢实业坊(ptt.cc) ◆ From: 61.231.105.49