原文引自华盛顿邮报，网址： http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/02/06/ AR2009020603519_pf.html S.E. Asia Faces Long-Term Trade Shift Export-Dependent Nations Will See Less Demand From West, Analysts Say By Tim Johnston 东南亚面临长期贸易转型 －－分析师认为西方国家需求将减少 Washington Post Foreign Service Saturday, February 7, 2009; A10 BANGKOK -- Stimulus packages being put in place by many export-dependent nations in Southeast Asia may not do enough to protect those economies from the consequences of the fundamental shift in trading patterns that underlies the current financial crisis, analysts warn. 分析师警告，当前金融危机底下，贸易模式已出现本质上的转变，许多依赖出口 贸易的东南亚国家推行的刺激景气方案，仍不足以保护该国经济。 The exporting nations have taken slightly different paths in attempting to combat the global slowdown, but all their packages rest on a similar assumption: that the world economy will pick up in the third quarter, causing things to return to normal. 这些出口国采取不同方式企图与全球经济成长趋缓对抗，但是所有的方案都立基 在一个基本的假设上：全球经济将於第三季恢复，一切因素将回归正常。 Regional analysts say, however, that the present crisis is not just another cyclical downturn but is instead a structural realignment and that Southeast Asia's export economies need to act quickly to adjust to a new reality in which American and European consumers will no longer be the main market. 但是区域分析师表示，当前的危机不只是另一个景气循环的底部，更是一场结构 性重整，而东南亚的出口经济必须快速调整以适应美国与欧洲不再是全球主要市 场的事实。 "We are geared towards selling what the U.S. and Europe want, not what Asians want. We need a readjustment," said Supavud Saicheua, the managing director of Phatra Securities in Bangkok. "In the long term, Asians have to consume more, and Europe and the U.S. have to consume less." 位於曼谷的Phatra证券董事Supavud Saicheua说：「以往我们卖的都是美国与欧 洲要的产品，不是亚洲要的。现在我们需要重新调整。」「长期而言，亚洲人将 会消费更多产品，欧洲与美国将会减少。」 In a world dominated by born-again Keynesians, deficit-funded stimulus packages are all the rage. In Southeast Asia, there have been a variety of approaches: Vietnam has chosen to support industry, Thailand is trying to mitigate the effects on the most vulnerable, and Singapore has gone for a mixture of the two. 凯因斯主义重生且再度支配这个世界，超支的刺激景气方案盛行。在东南亚有几 个不同的政策途径：越南选择支持工业；泰国试图减缓危机对最脆弱产业的影响， 而新加坡则兼取两种方式。 Tai Hui, head of economic research for Southeast Asia at Standard Chartered Bank in Singapore, said he believes that the packages will work for the region's bigger economies but are likely to have limited effects in smaller nations. 新加坡渣打银行东南亚经济研究部门主管Tai Hui表示，他相信刺激方案对於东 南亚较大的国家会有效果，但对较小的国家而言效果有限。 "It will work well for India and China, but for the smaller economies like Hong Kong and Singapore, no matter how much you spend, it is not going to compensate for the slowdown in Europe and the U.S.," Hui said, adding that the packages "will at best break the fall." 「刺激方案在中国与印度将会产生效果，但较小的经济体如香港与新加坡，无论 花多少钱，都不够补足欧洲与美国的经济趋缓。」他更进一步说：「充其量只能 减缓落下的速度。」 For the countries in the middle, the scale of the problems they face appears to have blunted governmental ambitions. Korn Chatikavanij, Thailand's new finance minister, said his $3.3 billion stimulus package was designed to "stop the bleeding" until the global economy picks up. His biggest fear, he said, is that the global economic revival will not come soon enough. 至於居中的国家，它们面对的问题规模之宏大，也似乎打击了政府的野心。泰国 新任财长Korn Chatikavanij表示，他所提出的33亿刺激方案是要「止血」，直 到全球经济复苏的到来，最怕的是全球经济还没这麽快复苏。 Some analysts have said that the packages raise two questions: What effect will they have on domestic demand? And if they are effective, will they save the region's export industries? 有些分析家认为刺激方案引出两个问题：第一，方案对国内需求会带来什麽影响？ 以及第二，如果刺激方案有效，能够保护东南亚地区的出口产业吗？ Compared with the rest of the world, Asia has very high savings rates, which are considered likely to rise, given the present mood of uncertainty. 相较於世界其他地方，亚洲有非常高的储蓄率，在目前弥漫的不确定气氛下，储 蓄率可能还会再升高。 "Domestic demand was starting to come off even before you saw the collapse of exports," said Prakriti Sofat, a Singapore-based economist with HSBC. 新加坡汇丰银行经济学家Prakriti Sofat说：「在你看到出口瓦解前，国内 需求早已开始下降。」 The high savings rates mean that consumers will take at least some of their country's stimulus money and squirrel it away, further limiting the effects of packages that are in some cases fairly small, anyway. 高储蓄率意味着消费者会把政府刺激景气的钱至少藏一些些起来，这更限制了刺 激方案的效果，即使效果在某些案例中已经极小。 Many analysts contend that even if the stimulus packages manage to reignite domestic demand, that demand is unlikely to be for the narrow range of manufactured products that Southeast Asia's most export-dependent economies have long produced in vast quantities, such as Thailand's pickup trucks and hard drives, and Vietnam's furniture and shoes. 许多分析家声称，就算这些方案设法重燃国内需求，这些需求也不可能全部发挥 在东南亚出口依赖经济体长久以来所生产的狭小产品范围里，如泰国的小货车与 硬碟、越南的家俱与鞋子。 If the problem were merely a short-term one, export companies could probably weather the storm with government help, but according to Supavud, the Phatra Securities analyst, a long-term structural shift in the global economy means that the demand profile for Asian exports will never return to its pre-crisis form. 如果问题仅仅是短暂的，在政府支持下，外销公司也许可以撑过这场风暴，但是 ，根据Phatra证券分析师Supavud的说法，全球经济长期结构性转变的意含是， 对亚洲出口产品的需求量表不会再回到危机前的水平。 In Southeast Asia, the pain is likely to be spread unevenly. At one end of the spectrum will be countries such as Indonesia, the region's largest economy. Economists say it is better off than most, thanks to its lower dependence on exports, particularly manufactured products. Economic growth, which was about 6 percent last year, is expected to slow to 4.5 percent this year. However, the country's longer-term prospects are considered relatively healthy. 经济危机带来的创痛，可能正在东南亚以不同程度漫延开来。光谱的一端是东南 亚最大经济体的印尼，经济学者表示，较不依赖出口贸易（特别是加工产品）的 印尼在这次危机中会比大多数国家更有余裕。印尼去年经济成长率6％，虽然今 年预估将趋缓为4.5％，长期而言体质相对健康。 At the other end is Singapore, which has seen domestic exports shrink and is already in recession. 光谱的另一端是新加坡，除了发生出口萎缩之外，经济也已在衰退中。 But Hui, the Standard Chartered Bank economist, said that Singapore may be showing the way forward. For some years it has been deliberately strengthening its ties with major Asian markets: Since 2005, it has signed trade pacts with China, Japan and South Korea, among others. 但是渣打银行经济学者Hui表示，新加坡也许正带出新方向。自2005年以来，新 加坡从容地强化它与几个主要亚洲市场的联结，分别与中国、日本、韩国签署贸 易协定。 While many regional businesses are currently concentrating on survival, Hui warned, they need to look ahead, as well. Hui警告，许多区域事务正专注在如何存活的课题上，但它们也同时需要把注意 力用於展望未来。 "The greater appeal to the Asian market and consumers will have to come. If they are too concentrated on the U.S. and Europe, they are going to miss out big-time," he said. Hui说道：「未来将愈加诉诸於亚洲的市场与消费者，如果东南亚把注意力太过 集中在美国与欧洲，它们将会错失绝佳契机。」 --

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