标题:What If the Polls Are Wrong? November 03, 2008 8:22 PM There have been in the neighborhood of 159 national polls in the last six weeks. Most of those polls have Barack Obama ahead of John McCain, including our ABC News/Washington Post daily tracking poll, that has Obama comfortably ahead 53-44. But what if the polls are wrong? It's happened before. Remember that famous Chicago Tribune newspaper headline "Dewey Defeats Truman" back in 1948? But in that case, the last polls of the election had been completed in mid-October. Not on the eve of the election. If it turns out that McCain wins tomorrow night in the face of so many polls that even at this late hour show Obama ahead comfortably, I think you have to say that the industry of political public opinion polling in this country will be shot. They'll have to build from the ground up. People will have to rethink how they do this work. The same thing will hold true for the political media. We know that polls are just a snapshot in time. But I think Americans will really questions what they're hearing from now on from the political media. Probably even more important, if this happens tomorrow, I think a significant number of Americans will be in a state of political shock. They may not believe what they're seeing tomorrow night. Right now we're looking at polls where not only is Obama ahead nationally, he's ahead in the key states he needs to win. Of course, anything can happen tomorrow. The media has had to eat crow on election night before. But we've never really seen so much polling at this late date all pointing in the same direction. --George Stephanopoulos http://blogs.abcnews.com/george/2008/11/what-if-the-pol.html 新闻来源: (需有正确连结) -- --

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