标题:The List: McCain’s 10 Worst Ideas Page 1 of 2 Posted September 2008 Last week, FP roasted Barack Obama’s 10 worst ideas. Now, it’s John McCain on the hot seat. Creating a League of Democracies 撮合民主联盟 What he said:“We have to strengthen our global alliances as the core of a new global compact—a League of Democracies—that can harness the vast influence of the more than one hundred democratic nations around the world to advance our values and defend our shared interests.” —Speech at the Los Angeles World Affairs Council, March 26, 2008 马说：「我们必须强化全球盟邦作为新世界集体（民主联盟）的核心，如此才能 驾驭超过一百个民主国家来推动我们的价值并扞卫我们的共同利益。」 Why it’s a bad idea: As Thomas Carothers argues in the July/August issue of FP, “[T]he idea that democracies naturally align is only half right and risks being a dangerous oversimplification.” Carothers and other critics have noted that such a league might further weaken the United Nations. For the most part, world leaders have been cool to the idea, and rightfully so. A previous iteration, the little-known Community of Democracies, founded in 2000, has stumbled into irrelevance. 坏在：如THOMAS CAROTHERS所说，「民主国家自然团结的想法只对一半，且这个想法 是危险、过於简化的。」CAROTHERS和其他评论者认为，这种联盟可能会让联合国更 弱。世界各国领袖对这个议题很冷，且应该冷。之前名不见经传的「民主社群」已经 堕入遗忘之中。 Calling for a Gas-Tax Holiday 提唱油税假期 What he said: “I propose that the federal government suspend all taxes on gasoline now paid by the American people—from Memorial Day to Labor Day of this year. The effect will be an immediate economic stimulus—taking a few dollars off the price of a tank of gas every time a family, a farmer, or trucker stops to fill up.” —Speech at Carnegie Mellon University, Pittsburgh, Pa., April 15, 2008 马说：「我提议，联邦政府在美国阵亡将士纪念日到劳工节之间停止课徵任何油气税赋。 这个效果会立即产生经济测机─每个家庭、农夫、卡车司机的每个油箱里都能省个几 块钱。」 Why it’s a bad idea: Pick your poison. Many (including Dick Cheney) predict that such a “holiday” would have little effect, as oil companies would just pocket the difference. Ditching the 18.4-cents-a-gallon gas tax and 24.4-cents-a-gallon diesel tax would deprive the already-strapped Highway Trust Fund, which relies on gas-tax revenues to fund transportation projects, of cash. Economists and environmentalists also widely deride the proposal, which would boost demand and therefore quickly drive prices back up. When you ’re in a hole, it’s best to stop digging. 坏在：选个死法。许多人（包括钱尼）预测这类「节日」效果有限，因为石油公司会 乐得收差价。把汽油税和柴油税给晾在一边只会让已经绑死的高速公路信用基金损失 钞票。经济学者和环保人士也普遍嘲笑这个提议，因为这个题意会刺激需求并且很快 地把价格往上抬。掉到洞里就别再向下挖了。 Requiring a Three-Fifths Majority to Raise Taxes 要求增税必须有五分之三多数 What he said: “John McCain believes it should require a 3/5 majority vote in Congress to raise taxes.” —Press release, Dec. 18, 2007 马说：「马坎相信国会应该要超过五分之三多数才能增税。」 Why it’s a bad idea: States that have enacted supermajority requirements for tax increases haven’t exactly entered the pantheon of budgetary glory. Take California, which requires approval from two thirds of the state legislature to raise taxes. The Golden State has recently struggled to raise revenues— and has witnessed an increase in taxes disguised as “fees” as a result. Raising taxes should be like the use of force in foreign policy—the last resort, yes, but you never want to take any option off the table. 坏在：采用绝对多数决定增税的国家并不会进入预算界的荣誉殿堂。加州要求州议会 要超过三分之二才能增税。现在，金州反而是为了增加收入而用「费用」来鱼目混珠。 增税应该被视为类似於外交政策里的军事行动─的确是最後手段，但最好不要把所有 选择权给做死了。 Flip-flopping on Immigration 移民政策反覆 What he said: “I understand why you would call it a, quote, shift. I say it is a lesson learned about what the American people’s priorities are. And their priority is to secure the borders.” —Remarks to reporters in Simpsonville, S.C., Nov. 3, 2007 马说：「我了解你们会称呼我是...变动了。我认为这是个关於美国人民认为最重要的 几个问题是什麽。美国人民最重视的问题是边境安全。」 Why it’s a bad idea: Immigration was once an issue where McCain could justifiably claim to be a “maverick,” unafraid to buck party orthodoxy and popular opinion. The Arizona senator even partnered with Democratic Massachusetts Sen. Ted Kennedy in 2005 to craft a bipartisan bill that would both give illegal immigrants a chance at citizenship and boost security at the U.S.-Mexico border. But with his poll numbers plummeting during the Republican primary, McCain began trumpeting the party line of “securing the borders first.” The problem is, without providing more opportunities for legal immigration or taking steps to build up the Mexican economy, taller fences and more guards will only address the symptoms, not the ultimate causes of illegal immigration. 坏在：移民曾是马坎可以名副其实自称「独行侠」，无惧对抗自己党的正统思想和 民意向背。马坎甚至还与泰德甘乃迪一同在2005年提出跨党派法案，给予非法移民 获得公民权的权利，以及提升美墨边境安全。但马坎在民意支持度在共和党初选时 直直落的情况下，开始提倡共和党主流意见，即「首先确保边境安全」。问题是， 没有提供更多合法移民的机会，或采取措施让墨西哥的经济力提升，更高的围墙以 及更多的警卫只能治标，不能治非法移民的根本。 Drilling Our Way Out of the Oil Crisis 钻出一条逃离石油危机的生路 What he said: “Gas prices are through the roof. Energy costs have seeped into our grocery bills, making it more expensive to feed our families. ... It is time for America to get serious about energy independence, and that means we need to start drilling offshore at advanced oil rigs like this.” —Press conference on an oil platform in the Gulf of Mexico, Aug. 19, 2008 马说：「油气价格已经破表。能源成本已经渗入我们的菜钱里，让喂饱家庭更加昂贵。 ...现在美国应该严肃地追求能源独立，也意味着我们必须开始开发沿岸石油，建立 如这类先进油井的设施。」 Why it’s a bad idea: Even ignoring potential environmental impacts, lifting the moratorium on offshore drilling would make little difference for consumers. According to the government’s own Energy Information Administration, production of the new supplies would not even begin until 2017 and would have little effect on what Americans pay at the pump anyway— just a few cents a gallon by 2030 under the best-case scenario. More to the point, it’s a strategy of yesteryear. As columnist Thomas Friedman put it in a recent interview with FP, “When I hear McCain pounding the table for ‘ drill, drill, drill,’ it reminds me of someone pounding the table for IBM Selectric typewriters on the eve of the IT revolution.” 坏在：即便忽略潜在环境冲击，把沿岸采油的禁令取消对消费者来说没有多大影响。 根据政府自己的能源信息管理局资料，生产新油料要到2017年才会开始，并且不会 对美国人付出的油钱有任何影响─最好情况是大概2030年的时候可以省个几毛钱。 更重要的，这是过时的战略思维。专栏作家FRIEDMAN提到，「当我听到马坎敲着 桌子喊钻，钻，钻，这让我想到某个人在IT革命前夕敲着IBM Selectric打字机 的情景。」 Balancing the Budget through Victory in the War on Terror 透过反恐战争胜利来平衡预算 What he said: “The McCain administration would reserve all savings from victory in the Iraq and Afghanistan operations in the fight against Islamic extremists for reducing the deficit. Since all their costs were financed with deficit spending, all their savings must go to deficit reduction.” —Jobs for America: The McCain Economic Plan, released July 7, 2008 马说：马坎政府会把伊拉克和阿富汗对抗伊斯兰极端主义份子的胜利存下来的钱用来 减少赤字。既然战争所有的花费都靠赤字来生银弹，那存下的前就应该拿来抵销赤字。 Why it’s a bad idea: The yearly bill for the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan is certainly enormous. Yet it still covers less than half of the United States’ projected $490 billion deficit for 2009. Given the massive tax cuts that McCain also supports, it’s unclear how his debt-reduction math adds up. McCain opposes a timetable for withdrawal from Iraq, yet he feels confident enough to budget for victory by the end of his first term. Afghanistan is getting worse, not better. And as for “the fight against Islamic extremists, ” how does one even define victory? Don’t try asking McCain: He doesn’t have an answer. 坏在：每年在伊拉克和阿富汗的战争帐单当然庞大。但这仍然只占美国预测2009年预算里 4900亿赤字的一半或更少。马坎既然支持大裁税率，到底他要怎麽算才能消赤字实在不 清楚。马坎反对提出自伊拉克撤退的时间表，但他感到有信心能够有足够预算让他第一任 结束前就能大获成功。阿富汗情况是更糟，不是更好。至於「对抗伊斯兰极端主义份子」 这场战争到底要怎麽看才算是胜利？别问马坎，他没答案。 Making the Bush Tax Cuts Permanent 把布希减税政策永久化 What he said: “We’ve got to make these tax cuts permanent. We have to, otherwise I think it’ll have a negative impact on our economy.” —NBC’s Meet the Press, Jan. 27, 2008 马说：我们必须要把这些减税措施永久化。我们必须至三座，不然我认为会对经济造成 负面影响。」 Why it’s a bad idea: You might say McCain was against the $1.35 trillion Bush tax cuts before he was for them. In 2004, he said he opposed them “ because of the disproportional amount that went to the wealthiest Americans.” Now, he says he supports them because the economy is weakening. Yet “the tax cuts are more likely to reduce long-term growth than to increase it,” according to the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities. McCain insists he will restrain spending and eliminate the budget deficit. But McCain’s budget numbers simply don’t add up, and the senator’s constant hammering on congressional earmarks misses the big picture: Defense and entitlement programs are where most of the fat lies, not in relatively small pork projects such as Alaska’s infamous “Bridge to Nowhere.” 坏在：你或许会说马坎曾反对1.35兆的布希减税政策，是後来才支持的。2004年时， 马坎说他反对这些减税政策，「因为对最富有的美国人课徵了不合比例的税」。现在， 马坎说他支持这些减税政策，因为经济正在衰退。然而，「减税政策似乎会减缓长期 成长而非促进成长，」根据美国预算和政策优先权自由中心研究显示。马坎坚持 他会控制花费，并销匿赤字。但马坎的预算数字算来怪怪，而他不断抨击国会头头则 忽略了大方向：「国防和津贴计画才是油水多的地方，而非向是阿拉斯加恶名昭彰的 「通往无处的桥」这种小菜一碟。 Supporting Abstinence-Only Education and the Global Gag Rule 支持性纯洁教育政策和全球计画生育扼制政策 What he said: Asked on the campaign trail if he thought grants for sex education should include instruction on contraception, McCain turned to an aide for help, saying, “Brian, would you find out what my position is on contraception—I’m sure I’m opposed to government spending on it, I’m sure I support the president’s policies on it.” The reporter asked, “Do you think contraceptives help stop the spread of HIV?” After a long pause, McCain replied, “You’ve stumped me.” —Town hall meeting, Iowa, Mar. 16, 2007 马说：当被问到他是否认为教育政策应该包括如何避孕的教材，马坎转向他的助手 求救，说，「BRIAN，帮我搞清楚我对避孕的立场是什麽─我大概确定我是反对政府 在这上面花钱，我确定我支持总统的政策。」记者问到，「你是否认为避孕行为帮助 扼制HIV的蔓延？」一段不短的沈没後，马坎说，「你考倒我了。」 Why it’s a bad idea: A landmark, 10-year study sponsored by Congress found in 2007 that students in sexual-abstinence programs “were just as likely to have sex as those who did not, reported having similar numbers of sexual partners, and first had sex at about the same age,” the Chicago Tribune reported. Abstinence-only education is one of the core principles guiding the so-called global gag rule, an executive order passed by President George W. Bush in 2001 that prohibits giving foreign aid to NGOs that offer any kind of counseling on abortion as family planning. McCain voted against repealing the measure in 2005. Critics of the gag rule point to reports showing a shortage of contraceptives, clinic closings, loss of funds for HIV/AIDS education, and a rise in unsafe abortions since it was instituted. 坏在：一个国会支持的、有代表性的十年研究於2007年发现,参与性禁慾计画的学生 「与那些没参与的学生同样有可能进行性行为，有类似数量的幸伴侣，以及在几乎 相同的年纪进行第一次性行为，」芝加哥先锋报报导。性纯洁教育是所谓全球计画生育 扼制计画里最核心的价值之一。布希政府逾2001年通过该计画，其中包括禁止提供 非政府组织任何辅导堕胎做为家庭计画的外援。马坎於2005年时投票反对将此计画取消。 对这个扼制计画的批评者指出缺乏避孕工具，诊所关门，HIV/爱滋病教育基金流失， 以及不安全的堕胎手术比例在该计画开始实施後上升。 Calling for 45 Nuclear Power Plants 呼吁盖45座核能电厂 What he said: “If I am elected president, I will set this nation on a course to building 45 new reactors by the year 2030, with the ultimate goal of 100 new plants to power the homes and factories and cities of America.” —Speech in Springfield, Mo., June 18, 2008 马说：我当总统後，会把国家方向调整为於2030年前建造45座新的核子反应炉，以及 远程目标的100座新厂，来供应美国家庭工厂和城市电。 Why it’s a bad idea: There are many good reasons to be skeptical of the widespread new enthusiasm for nuclear power, including its high-and-rising costs, but perhaps the best one is that, as experts Charles Ferguson and Sharon Squassoni explained in 2007, “a nuclear renaissance will take too long to have a significant effect” on climate change. Moreover, how do we know that 45 is the right number? A drop in the price of alternative fuels could “make nuclear plants look like white elephants,” the Wall Street Journal noted in May. For someone who likes to extol the virtues of the free market, McCain’s target sure smacks of socialist planning. 坏在：对核能的新喜好有许多批评的声浪，包括高昇的价格。但其中最重要的是「一个 核能复兴在气候变迁层面需要花很久时间才能有明显成效。」另外，我们要如何才知道 45做就是对的数字？替代能源价格突然崩跌可能会让「核能电厂看起来像白大象，」 华尔街日报五月提到。有些人喜欢剥削自由市场的好处，而马坎的目标确实把社会主义的 计画上。 Backing Cap-and-Trade Without a 100 Percent Auction What he said: “We will cap emissions according to specific goals, measuring progress by reference to past carbon emissions. … Over time, an increasing fraction of permits for emissions could be supplied by auction, yielding federal revenues that can be put to good use.” —Speech in Portland, Ore., May 12, 2008 支持上限─贸易，而非100拍卖。 马说：我们会订出特定排放量的上限，衡量过去碳排放的参考例子。...一段时间後， 对排放量许可的一部份增加能够透过拍卖供应中国东部，让联邦财收能够被妥善利用。 Why it’s a bad idea: McCain’s gotten credit for supporting a cap-and-trade system, but his specific proposal is pretty weak. Cap-and-trade systems work by putting a ceiling on carbon emissions, and then allocating permits that give companies the right to pollute a given amount. From an environmental standpoint, it doesn’t much matter how you initially distribute the permits, as long as the cap is stringent enough. But most economists think that, unless you first auction these off in a transparent process, you’re basically enabling a massive corporate giveaway, raising the likelihood that well-connected corporations or industries will get sweetheart deals, and failing to capture revenue that can pay for other priorities. 坏在：马坎对於上限贸易系统一向支持，但他的特定提议十分软。上限贸易系统 是透过给予碳排放上限来重新分配，并让公司有限度地继续污染。从环境保护的 角度来看，这并非关於你原本散布的核可是什麽。但多数经济学家认为，除非第 一次拍卖能在公平公开的过程中卖出，基本上你就给予一个庞大企业迟早崩盘， 并提出可能性，让联系良好的企业或工业获得甜头协议，而无法抓住营收来负担 其他优先权。 http://www.foreignpolicy.com/story/cms.php?story_id=4465&page=1 新闻来源: (需有正确连结) -- --

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