标题:Why Obama looks vulnerable By Gideon Rachman Published: August 25 2008 17:36 | Last updated: August 25 2008 22:30 The Democratic party will whip up some euphoria in Denver this week. But a dark cloud of anxiety hovers over the party convention. 这礼拜民主党在丹佛会把士气打得高昂些。但一片乌云般的焦虑已然笼罩了党大会。 A horrible truth is beginning to dawn on the Democrats. Barack Obama is not the “once in a generation” political genius they thought they had discovered. On the contrary, he is a weak candidate for the presidency. 一个可怕的真相即将对民主党展露。欧巴马不再是民主党人以为他们找到的「一世代 一次」的政治天才了。恰好相反，他是个脆弱的总统参选人。 With a feeble economy, an unpopular war and the Republicans in disarray, the Democrats should win the presidential election in a canter. But Mr Obama, the Democratic nominee, is neck and neck with John McCain, his Republican rival. For sure, Mr Obama has some real assets – intelligence, grace, good looks, star quality. But history suggests that he is a very risky candidate. 现在经济低迷、一场不受欢迎的战争正进行、共和党陷入混乱，似乎民主党应该可轻骑 过关赢得选战。但民主党提名人欧巴马与他的共和党对手马坎竟然打了个平手。当然， 欧巴马有些真资产─智慧、优雅、好容貌、明星架势。但历史暗示，他或许是个风险 极高的候选人。 Since 1968, the Democrats have won just three out of 10 presidential races. Their two successful candidates – Jimmy Carter and Bill Clinton – were both white, centrist governors from the southern US. Whenever the Democrats nominated a liberal from outside the South – George McGovern, Walter Mondale, Michael Dukakis, John Kerry – they lost. 自1968年始，民主党十次总统大选中只赢过三次。他们两位成功的候选人─卡特和 克林顿─都是白人，中间派南部州长。每当民主党提名了非南部的自由派─McGovern， Mondale，Dukakis，Kerry─他们就输。 Mr Obama is a northerner. He is a liberal. He is a former college professor. And he is black. A bold choice, under the circumstances. 欧巴马是个北方人。他是自由派。他是前任大学教授。他是黑人。这些条件下，他是个 挺大胆的选择。 Mr Obama’s unusual personal history – the son of a black Kenyan and a white American, brought up partly in Indonesia – allowed him to write a fascinating, introspective autobiography, Dreams from My Father. But his life story may seem a little exotic to most American voters. Mr McCain’s early life could easily be made into a Hollywood movie.Mr Obama’s youth is more of an off-Broadway play. 欧巴马独特的个人历史─肯亚黑人与美国白人之子，在印尼长大─足以让他写本精彩绝伦 又有深度的自传，《来自父亲的梦想》。但他的生命历程似乎对多数美国选民来说太异国 了。马坎的早年可以轻松地被拍成电影。欧巴马的少年则多像出外百老汇剧码。 Mr McCain can tell tales of heroism as a prisoner of war in Vietnam. Mr Obama was a student at elite universities on a voyage of self-discovery. He writes: “To avoid being mistaken for a sellout, I chose my friends carefully. The more politically active black students. The foreign students. The Chicanos. The Marxist professors and structural feminists...we discussed neo-colonialism, Franz Fanon, Eurocentrism and patriarchy." Even allowing for the self-mocking tone, this is not exactly mainstream America. 马坎可以讲些身为越南战俘的英雄故事。欧巴马则是个在顶尖大学寻找自我的学生。 他写道，「为了避免被误认成叛徒，我慎选我的朋友。积极投入政治活动的黑人学生。 外籍学生。墨西哥裔美国人。马克斯学派教授和结构派女性主义者...我们讨论新殖民 主义，法浓，欧洲中心论，和父权制。就算不挑剔那自嘲的语调，这也不是主流美国。 It is clear that Mr Obama lacks experience. But that, in itself, need not be a bar to the White House. The same was true of other Democrats who won the presidency--John Kennedy, Jimmy Carter, Bill Clinton. 欧巴马缺乏经验是明显的。但缺乏经验本身并不构成前往白宫的绊脚石。这对其他赢得 总统大选的民主党人士来说也是成立的。 Race, however, is a bigger problem. So far, the fact that Mr Obama is an African-American may actually have helped him. As Shelby Steele, an academic, writes: "When you can credibly run for the presidency only two years out of the Illinois state legislature...then something in the society is drawing you forward." 但种族是个大问题，目前，欧巴马的黑人身份或许还帮了他不少。如一位学者Steele 写到，「当你才离开伊利诺州议会两年就能真的参选总统...那就是社会中有力量带你 向前。」 But Democratic primaries--with a high proportion of black and white liberal voters--are one thing. A general election is quite another matter. And notoriously, even in the Democratic contest, Mr Obama struggled to pick up the votes of the white working class in key states such as Pennsylvania. A recent New York Times poll hinted at just how high a barrier Mr Obama may have to hurdle. Whilst only 5 per cent of American voters said they would not vote for a black candidate, 27 per cent said they thought the US was not yet ready for a black president. 但民主党初选─其中有高比例的黑人与白人自由派选民─是一件事。总统大选又是全然 不同。且不妙的是，连在民主党初选中，欧巴马都不能在关键州如宾州拿下蓝领阶级的 白人选票。一份最近的纽约时报民调指出了欧巴马可能必须要跨过的阻碍有多高。虽然 只有百分之五的美国选民说他们不会投给黑人候选人，百分之二十七的选民表示他们认为 美国还没准备好选出一位黑人总统。 Mr Obama has campaigned as a candidate who happens to be black, rather than as a black candidate. In doing so, he has offered white voters the reassurance that he is not one of those African-Americans who talks endlessly about race and tries to make them feel bad. On the contrary, voting for Mr Obama can make you feel good about yourself and about race relations in America. 欧巴马希望把自己诠释为一位正好黑一些的候选人，而非黑人候选人。如此做，他让白人 选民能安心，相信他不是那种成天谈种族并且让白人心理难受的那种非裔美国人。相反地 ，投给欧巴马可以让你心理好受，并且对美国的种族问题感受好点。 So there was a certain, cynical brilliance in the McCain campaign's accusation that it is Mr Obama who is "playing the race card". This challenged the idea that Mr Obama is a "post-racial" candidate--and it played to white resentments about what some regard as special treatment for black people. The New York Times poll showed that 26 per cent of American whites believe they have been the victim of discrimination. 所以在马坎阵营里会燃起智慧而挖苦的指控，强调是欧巴马才在「打种族牌」。这个想法 挑战了欧巴马作为「後种族」候选人的想法─且还挑起了一些白人对於黑人特权的厌恶 意识。纽约时报民调显示，百分之二十六的美国白人相信他们被歧视，成为受害者。 The special sensitivity of the racial issue places the Obama campaign in a dilemma when it comes to responding to attacks. It is conventional wisdom among Democrates that previous candidates--in particular, Mr Dukakis and Mr Kerry--lost because they were too slow to respond to negative campaigning by the Republicans. 种族议题的敏感性让欧巴马阵营在回应类似攻击时面临两难。在民主党内，讨论候选人 如Dukakis和Kerry之所以会输掉选举是因为他们太慢反击共和党负面文宣已经是老生 常谈了。 But if the Obama campaign suspects the Republicans of appealing to racism, they will have to think twice about levelling the accusation. Any such charge will be leapt upon by a controversy-hungry media--placing race at the centre of the election campaign. And that can only help the McCain campaign. 但如果欧巴马阵营怀疑共和党在操弄族群，他们若要把指控升级则还需三思。任何这类的 指控会被可望议题的媒体给一口咬住，把种族议题摆在这次选举的中心位置。而这只能 拉抬马坎的选情。 Of course, Mr McCain has his own vulnerabilities. He is about to turn 72--and some opinion polls suggest that voters are even more reluctant to vote for a pensioner than they are to vote for a black person. His inability to remember how many houses he owns suggests that he is either extraordinarily rich or slightly senile--neither idea is helpful to his cause. 当然，马坎有自己的脆弱面。他即将72岁了，而有些民调显示，比起把票投给黑人， 选民更不愿把票投给领老人年金的老人。马坎无法记得自己有多少房子显示他要不是 超级有钱不然就是有些年老─任何想法都不会对他有利。 The structural factors that the Democrats think favor them this year certainly exist. Americans are in a morose mood about the economy and the country in general. The unpopularity of President George W. Bush will act as a drag on Republicans. Mr Obama has raised an awful lot of money, run a skilful campaign that beat the formidable Clinton machine and has an army of highly enthusiastic supporters. 民主党自己认为有利的结构性因素当然存在。美国人对於经济和国家发展普遍悲观。 总统布希的低支持率会伤害共和党。欧巴马募到了一堆钱，面对强大的克林顿阵营 打赢了场很技巧的选战，且他还有一股非常积极的支持者。 But he is still a very vulnerable candidate. Can he lose? Yes he can. 但他仍然是个非常脆弱的总统参选人。他可不可能输？他可能输。 [email protected] Post and read comments at Gideon Rachman’s blog Copyright The Financial Times Limited 2008 http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/dc529668-729e-11dd-983b-0000779fd18c,dwp_uuid= 729ab242-9cb1-11db-8ec6-0000779e2340.html 新闻来源: (需有正确连结) -- --

※ 发信站: 批踢踢实业坊(ptt.cc) ◆ From: 60.245.119.174 ※ 编辑: pursuistmi 来自: 60.245.119.174 (08/26 13:47) ※ 编辑: pursuistmi 来自: 118.169.28.144 (08/26 22:56)