China ousts US as top Japanese market Mainland China overtook the US as Japan’s largest export destination for the first time last month, underlining the growing importance of Chinese demand to the world’s second-largest economy. 中国在上个月第一次取代了美国成为日本最大出口国，显示出中国的内需已经达到了世界 第二的程度了。 Exports to China, which have risen in each of the last 38 months, expanded by 16.8 per cent in July to their highest level since the Japanese government began compiling statistics in 1950. 日本对大陆的出口在过去的38个月持续成长，在七月达到了16.8%，成为了1950年後经济 开放的最高峰。 At the same time, exports to the US declined by 11.5 per cent, marking the 11th consecutive monthly drop. Overall, shipments rose by 8.1 per cent by value, after falling in June for the first time since 2003, the finance ministry said. 同时，日本对美国出口连续十一个月下滑，在六月更短少了11.5%。不过装运部份成长了 8.1%，是2003年以来第一次正成长。 Japanese companies such as Toyota, Honda Motor and Komatsu have recently identified an increasing reliance on China and other emerging markets for sales growth as the US economy slows. Honda last month announced double-digit increases in the volume of China sales in the three months to June, compared with a 5 per cent fall in the US. 日本公司像是Toyota, 本田, Komatsu 最近也都增加对中国和其他开发中国家的出口依赖 ，以填补美国经济成长缓慢的缺口。本田上个月表示在美国成长减少了5%的同时，中 国有两位数的成长。 However, the export growth will provide little cheer to policymakers, faced with rising input costs and an uncertain outlook in the economies of Japan’s main trading partners. 但是出口的成长只有带给执政者一点安慰。因为日本进口成本的成长和经济的不确定性严 格的考验着日本。 Japan’s July trade surplus suffered an unexpectedly large decline of 86.6 per cent to Y91.1bn ($829m, €562m, ￡445m) because of an 18.2 per cent surge in imports by value. The market forecast was for a trade surplus in July of more than Y200bn. 日本七月的贸易剩余大大短少了86.6% (八亿两千万美金)，因为货物价值提高了18.2%。 日本原本预测的贸易剩余是两千亿日圆。 The fall, the fifth monthly decline in a row, reflected a near 70 per cent rise in the price of crude oil and a more than doubling of the price of coal. 短少的贸易剩余造成了原油价格上涨了70%和两倍价格以上的煤炭 Many analysts expect exports to fall again in coming months as the slowdown in western economies begins to have an impact on demand in emerging economies such as China. 许多专家预测出口会因为西方的不景气，进而影响中国和其他国家，造成出口下跌。 “It is difficult to believe that Japan will be able to maintain the kind of growth in exports that it saw in July. I think there is a higher chance of a slowdown,” said Kyohei Morita, chief economist at Barclays Capital in Tokyo. Kyohei Morita表示＂很难相信日本可以维持像七月这麽高的成长率，我认为有很大的经 济冷却情形发生＂ Given China’s growing dependence on the EU as an export destination, Chinese growth was likely to decelerate, leading in turn to a slowdown in Japanese exports to China, Mr Morita said. Morita表示＂欧洲精融体系是中国的重要出口国，在中国的经济踩煞车之後，连带的会影 响到日本的出口＂ Royal Bank of Scotland said demand from Asia would probably continue to support overall export levels, but “we no longer expect it to offset completely the negative shock from the US”. 苏格兰的Royal Bank也表示虽然亚洲的成长可以撑住目前的局势，不过并不期待可以抵消 美国传出的负面震撼。 Commentators also said the strength of exports in July appeared to have been a temporary reaction to a relatively sharp decline in the April to June quarter. 时事评论也说今年四到六月这季的贸易萎缩间接造成七月的暂时性贸易成长。 The Bank of Japan pointed to the weakening prospects for exports earlier this week when it lowered its assessment of economic prospects for the second month in a row. It voted to keep interest rates at 0.5 per cent, the lowest level among developed economies. 日本银行在这周指出经济前景将会滑落，并且投票希望利率能够维持在已开发国家的0.5% 正常水平。 The Japanese government is expected to unveil an economic stimulus package shortly, possibly as early as Friday. 日本政府希望能在短期内公布经济刺激计画。 --

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