War erupts in Georgia Aug 8th 2008 From Economist.com A war between Russia and Georgia appears to be under way ... It appears that Russia will get heavily involved—Russia's president, Dmitry Medvedev, says that he must protect Russian citizens there. The conflict could now quickly spiral into a war between Russian and Georgia, and engulf Abkhazia, a separatist region on the Black Sea coast in which Russia has much more strategic interest. 看来俄国会非常投入这次冲突──俄国总统说他必须要保护在当地的俄国公民。这次 冲突可能升级成为俄国与乔治亚之间的战争，并且卷入Abkhazia，另一个希望独立的黑 海区域；该区域对俄国来说有非常重要的战略利益。 Russia says that Georgia fired first in South Ossetia and that several of its “peacekeepers” inside the territory have been killed. Last month Russia sent warplanes into Georgian airspace—to deter an attack, it said. 俄国说是乔治亚在南奥赛梯开的第一枪，然後当地有几名俄方的「维和人员」死亡。 上个月俄国派遣战机进入乔治亚领空──为了阻止一次攻击，他们说。 The row has given Russia a chance to step up pressure on Georgia, portrayed in the Russian media as a tiresome and aggressive Western stooge. The South Ossetian leader, Eduard Kokoity, said that he would force Georgian troops out of his self-declared republic (which is a patchwork of villages and small towns, some controlled by Georgian authorities and others by separatists). 这次混乱的事件给俄国机会对乔治亚施压；乔治亚在俄国媒体中被诠释为一个非常烦人 且强势的西方傀儡。南奥赛梯领袖Eduard Kokoity说他会逼迫乔治亚军队离开他的单方 宣布成立的共和国（是以补丁般的聚落和小镇组成，一些是乔治亚政府控制，另一些 由分离份子控制）。 The quarrel in South Ossetia follows an escalation of tension in Abkhazia. Russia has reinforced its military presence there, which is nominally part of a UN-monitored peacekeeping effort. In the past few months European governments got more involved in the peace process and Germany drafted a plan for the economic revival of Abkhazia, indefinite autonomy and the return of Georgian refugees. So far the plan has stalled. The Abkhaz authorities are uneasy about the Russian embrace, but fear the return of Georgian refugees, once the largest ethnic group in the region. Russia does not want to surrender its key role in Abkhazia. 南奥赛梯的纠纷马上跟随着Abkhazia区域升级的紧张情势。俄国军队又在当地增援了； 他们名义上是在当地主持联合国监视下得维和任务。在过去数月，欧洲各国政府逐渐投入 这个区域的维和进程，且德国还草拟了一份关於Abkhazia的计画，其中针对经济复苏、 不明确的自治政体、以及乔治亚难民回归等问题。现在这个计画停顿了。Abkhaz当局 对於俄国的关注不甚安心，但却又担心乔治亚难民的回亏：那曾是当地数量最多的民族。 俄国并不想要放弃他在Abkhazia的关键角色。 As Russian gets involved in the war with Georgia, the disposition of political forces within the Kremlin itself may shift. Russia’s prime minister Vladimir Putin, who is in China, indicated that Russia would retaliate against Georgia’s aggression. Mr Medvedev may not be best pleased to start his presidency with a war in Georgia: it suggests that he may have to submit to the wishes of the hard-line military and security services. But Mr Putin has a fierce dislike of Mr Saakashvili, Georgia’s maverick president, and seems determined to replace his government. 俄国开始与乔治亚进入战争状态的同时，克里姆林宫内的政治角力可能会有新的结果。 人在中国的俄国总理普丁指出，俄国会对乔治亚的侵犯行为展开报复。Medvedev可能 不会喜欢他的总统任期刚开始便陷入对乔治亚的战争：这或许代表他可能还是要服从 军方鹰派和安全系统的想法。而普丁非常厌恶乔治亚牛仔总统Saakashvili，并且希望 换掉他的政府。 Mr Putin may also want to deal with Georgia in good time before Russia hosts 2014 winter Olympic games in Sochi, a Black-sea resort town only few miles from the Abkhaz border. A military conflict in Georgia will also derail for a long time Georgia’s aspiration to join NATO—something that Russian finds deeply unpalatable. 普丁也会希望尽快处理乔治亚问题，就在俄国於黑海度假城市Sochi主持2014年冬季奥运 之前，而这里距离Abkhaz边境只有几英里的距离。在乔治亚境内的武装冲突也会阻碍乔治 亚长期盼望加入北约的盼望，而该国之加入北约是俄国非常无法忍受的。 Russia’s broader aim may be to try to roll back the advance of pro-Western forces in its “near abroad” by highlighting the West’s inability to help Georgia. The hotting up of Georgia’s conflicts coincided with Kosovo’s declaration of independence, recognised by much of the West, and American pressure for the expansion of NATO to Georgia and Ukraine. That move has been stymied, mainly by Germany; Georgia was promised eventual NATO membership but no firm plan. Though Georgia has become a vital corridor for oil and gas exports to Europe, this has not brought the support that its leaders had expected. A lame-duck American administration has been able to do little, though Georgians hope a presidential-election victory by John McCain, an ardent supporter, may change their fortunes. The country’s strong-willed and idiosyncratic president, Mr Saakashvili, is not seen by all European leaders as quite the paragon of legality, freedom and reform that he claims to be. Georgia’s image was severely dented in November last year by a crackdown against the opposition. 俄国更大的目标可能是希望止住西倾的力量在他的「近邻」，透过放大西方无法帮助 乔治亚的无能做起。乔治亚的冲突浮上台面与科索沃的独立宣言多有雷同，俱是西方 非常认同的；这次冲突也与美国施压要北约扩张到乔治亚和乌克兰类似。美国的企图 被德国阻止了；乔治亚只得到北约承诺在未来给予会员资格，但没有确实计画。虽然 乔治亚已经成为唯一通往欧洲的重要油气出口管道，这并没有如预期的换得欧洲各 领袖的支持。一个跛脚的美国政府能作的不多，虽然乔治亚希望共和党的McCain当选 能够改变情势。这个国家的意志坚强且不按牌理的总统对欧洲领袖来说并不是如他 自己坚称最好的法治、自由、和改革的代言人。乔治亚的形象在去年十一月打击 反对党时已经受到极大伤害。 http://www.economist.com/world/europe/displayStory.cfm?story_id= 11909324&source=features_box_main -- --

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