Analysis: why the Russia-Georgia conflict matters to the West Richard Beeston, Foreign Editor It would be a serious mistake for the international community to regard the dramatic escalation of violence in Georgia as just another flare-up in the Caucasus. 若国际社会认为在乔治亚地区的冲突事件只是另一起普通的高加索热血事件，那就会 是个严重错误。 The names of the flashpoints may be unfamiliar, the territory remote and the dispute parochial, but the battle under way will have important repercussions beyond the region. 冲突各方可能名不见经传，且该地区偏远，其纷争狭隘，但已经引燃的战火会有超越 这个地区的重要震荡。 The outcome of the struggle will determine the course of Russia’s relations with its neighbours, will shape Dmitri Medvedev’s presidency, could alter the relationship between the Kremlin and the West and crucially could decide the fate of Caspian basin energy supplies. 这次冲突的结局会取决於俄国与他临邦的关系，且会行塑Dmitri Medvedev的总统格局， 同时会改变克里姆林工与西方之间的关系，还有决定里海盆地能源资源的前途。 Quite what triggered the Georgian offensive, on the day that the world was supposed to gather in peace for the start of the Beijing Olympics, is not yet clear. 到底什麽让乔治亚发动攻势，且是在北京奥运开幕式这全世界应该都保持和平的一天， 还不甚明朗。 It was known that a serious confrontation had been building up. British Intelligence predicted this year that a war in the Caucasus was probable. The focus was Georgia, the West’s main ally in the region and the only export route for Caspian oil and gas outside Kremlin control. 严重冲突的可能性在近期早就有迹象了。英国情报单位预测今年高加索地区爆发战争 是十分可能的。焦点是乔治亚，西方在该地区最主要的盟邦，以及克里姆林宫控制之外 唯一出口里海油气资源的途径。 Part of the responsibility must lie with President Saakashvili. The US-educated Geogian leader has rightly been praised for turning around his country’s dire economy, transforming the Soviet-style army into a modern Western force and standing up to the Kremlin. 部分的责任必须归给Saakashvili。这位受过美国教育的乔治亚领袖因为翻转其国家的 悲惨经济而得到应有的赞美，并转换苏维埃系统的军队成为一支现代西方武力，同时 还忤逆克里姆林宫。 Georgia has been saddled for the best part of two decades with breakaway regions in Abkhazia and South Ossetia, both supported by Russia as part of the Kremlin’s strategy to weaken Tbilisi’s authority. Nevertheless, seeking to reintegrate the separatist provinces by force is a risky, some would say reckless, move that threatens to trigger an all-out war between Russia and Georgia. 乔治亚过去二十年都必须承受Abkhazia和南奥赛梯这两个分离主义地区。这两个地区都受 俄罗斯的支持，属於克里姆林宫弱化Tbilisi的权力的战略。但是要以武力吞并这些分离 省分是非常危险的，有些人会说是鲁莽的。这个动作可能引发俄国与乔治亚之间的全面 战争。 On paper the small Georgian military is no match for the might of Russia. But Mr Saakashvili has calculated that his friends in the West, notably America and Britain, will protect him. Russia must also shoulder responsibility for the crisis. Under President Putin, the Kremlin increased its support for Georgia’s breakaway regions, offering their inhabitants Russian citizenship and arming separatist forces while pretending to be honest broker. 帐面上，小型的乔治亚军队不可能赢得了超强的俄国。但Saakashvili评估认为他的 西方朋友，特别是美国和英国，会保护他。俄国必须也要担起这次危机的责任。在普丁 任内，克里姆林宫不断增加对於乔治亚的分离主义地区的支持，提供他们的的住民 俄国公民权，并且提供武装之余还假装当个非常诚实的仲裁者。 The Kremlin tried to break Georgia’s resolve by deporting its citizens from Russia, imposing blockades and banning the import of Georgian goods. It had been hoped that the election this year of President Medvedev might lead to an easing of tensions between the two neighbours. It seems more likely that, thanks to Mr Putin’s continued influence as Prime Minister and the role played by hardliners in the military, Mr Medvedev may instead find himself embroiled in war. 克里姆林宫试图瓦解乔治亚的坚持，透过遣返乔治亚的公民，架起封锁线并且禁运 乔治亚的货物。曾有希望在今年Medvedev可以把两方的紧张情势降低。但看起来 更可能的是Medvedev将因为普丁居位总理的影响以及军方鹰派的角色而陷入 一场战争之中。 The West, in particular America, has stoked the regional fire. At the Nato summit in Bucharest this year it pressed for Georgia and Ukraine’s membership of the alliance. The move was blocked by the Europeans but Nato did give a commitment to offer the two countries membership later. That move was seen in Moscow as a challenge to its dominance in what it calls the “ near abroad”, the former Soviet republics. 在西方，特别是美国，为这场地区之火添加柴火。今年在Bucharest的北欧高峰会中， 美国强势推销乔治亚和乌克兰加入北约的主张。这个提议被欧洲国家否决了，但北约 确有对两个国家做出未来能成为会员国的保证。这个行为被莫斯科视为挑战其在各前 苏维埃共和国之间的影响力。 Since then Russia has made clear in word and deed that it will do anything to prevent Nato’s expansion on its western and southern flanks. 从那时起，俄国已经以言语和行动明确表达他会以任何手段避免NATO将其势力扩张至 俄国的西部和南部疆界。 America and Britain are closely involved in providing military assistance to the Georgians in the form of arms and training. The support is aimed at encouraging the rise of Georgia as an independent, sovereign state. 美国和英国已经深度投入提供乔治亚军事支援，提供武器和训练。这个支持计画是药 支持乔治亚成为主权独立的国家。 But the help is also partly a means of protecting the oil pipeline across Georgia that carries crude from the Caspian to the Black Sea, the only export route that bypasses Russia’s stranglehold on energy exports from the region. 但这个援助行动也是要保护经过乔治亚的里海往黑海的油管，这是唯一一条俄国控管 之外的能源出口管道。 If Georgia succeeds in reimposing its sovereignty over South Ossetia in the face of Russian opposition, it will be a huge setback to Moscow’s influence in the region and embolden other former Soviet republics, such as Ukraine and Azerbaijan. A defeat for the Georgians could signal the end of Mr Saakashvili ’s rule and severely set back Georgia’s efforts to establish itself as a modern Western-looking democracy. Either way, the conflict risks further undermining the strained relations between Russia and the West. 如果乔治亚成功夺回其在南奥赛提的主权，即便面临俄国的反击，那乔治亚的胜利可能 对莫斯科在当地的影响力造成极大打击，并且鼓动其他其他的前苏维埃共和国，如 乌克兰和雅塞拜然。若乔治亚失败，则可能显示终结Saakashvili的政权并且严重阻碍 乔治亚希望能转变成一个西方现代民主国家的机会。任两条路都会让这个冲突破坏已经 非常紧绷的俄国和西方关系。 http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/europe/article4486297.ece -- --

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