Analysis: Georgia's decision to shell Tskhinvali could prove 'reckless' President timed action to coincide with Olympics, says academic * David Hearst and James Orr * guardian.co.uk, * Friday August 08 2008 17:05 BST * Article history It has always been hard to work out who fired the first shot in any of the many conflicts that had broken out in the Caucasus. 高加索地区的冲突事件中，是谁开第一枪总是很难理出。 Ever since June 1992, when the tiny mountain enclave of South Ossetia won the first round of its bid to detach itself from Georgia, the two sides have been intermittently at war. 自从1992年六月开始，当南奥赛提这小小的山中国赢得了自乔治亚独立的第一回合後， 两方便不时交火为恶。 But the flare-ups in the last decade have been skirmishes, and for a while it looked as though peace had broken out. 但前十年只是小规模的冲突，且有一阵子还似乎和平能探出头了。 The weapons used today — tanks, multiple rocket launchers and fighter aircraft — made the fighting qualitatively different. 今天用的武器──坦克，火箭筒，战机──使争执质变了。 Observers had little doubt that the operation to take South Ossetia back under Georgian control bore the hallmarks of a planned military offensive. 旁观者应不会怀疑乔治亚政府这次夺回南奥赛提的行动有诸多谋画过的军事行动的特质。 It was not the result of a ceasefire that had broken down the night before - it was more a fulfilment of the promise the Georgian president, Mikhail Saakashvili, had made to recapture lost national territory, and with it a measure of nationalist pride. 这不是因为停火协议在前晚中断了──反而是乔治亚总统Mikhail Saakashvili要 夺回其丧失的国土的承诺，同时也是夺回国族光荣的企图。 The assault appears to be have carefully timed to coincide with the opening of the Olympics when the Russian prime minister, Vladimir Putin, was in Beijing. 乔治亚政府军的攻击似乎非常巧合地与北京奥运时间配合，即当俄国总理普丁在北京 的时候。 Tom de Waal, of the Institute for War and Peace Reporting and an expert on the region, said: "Clearly there have been incidents on both sides, but this is obviously a planned Georgian operation, a contingency plan they have had for some time, to retake [the South Ossetian capital] Tskhinvali. 战争与和平报导研究所的该区专家Tom de Waal说：「明显地双方都有闹出事件， 但这次明显是有计画的乔治亚政府行动，他们已经计画已久的应变计画，来重新夺回 南奥赛提首都Tskhinvali。 "Possibly the Georgians calculated that, with Putin in Beijing, they could recapture the capital in two days and then defend it over the next two months, because the Russians won't take this lying down." 可能乔治亚当局评估，当普丁在北京时，他们可以在两天之内重夺Tskhinvali，并且在 皆下来两个月内守住该城，毕竟俄国不会按兵不动。」 If Georgia calculated that Russia would be inhibited by Putin's presence at the Olympics, that soon backfired. 如果乔治亚评估认为俄国会被普丁在奥运现场所限制住，他们马上吃了苦头。 Within hours, the Russian president, Dmitri Medvedev, chaired a session of the security council in the Kremlin, ordering units of the 58th Russian army to retake Tskhinvali. The Russian president's military credentials are so weak - he had no other choice. 几小时内，俄国总统Dmitri Medvedev载客里姆林宫主持了一个国安会议之後，命令 第五十八军开拔夺回Tskhinvali。俄国总统的军方影响力弱到他没有任何选择。 Many of the 75,000 inhabitants of Tskhinvali and its outlying villages are now Russian citizens, with passports and rights to settle in Russia. 75000名Tskhinvali以及周围村落的住民现在已经是俄国公民，手持俄国护照以及 俄国居留权。 Northern Ossetia, with whom the southern separatists want to join, is formally part of the Russian Federation. While Georgians view South Ossetia as a part of its sovereign territory, there is a rival Ossetian claim. 北奥赛提，即南方分离份子希望加入的组织，之前是俄国联邦的一部份。乔治亚认为 南奥赛提是其主权领土的一部份，北奥赛提则主张南奥赛提是他们的。 It predates the current authoritarian regime in the Kremlin, but still links the enclave to the mothership of the Russian Federation. 北奥是在现在克里姆林宫政权之前就出现了，但仍然就归属而言是在俄罗斯联邦的羽翼 之下。 Jonathan Eyal, the director of studies at the Royal United Services Institute (Rusi), warned that all-out war between Russian and Georgia would amount to "the worst crisis in Europe since the end of communism". 皇家联合服务中心研究部门主任Jonathan Eyal警告，全面性的俄国乔治亚战争会变成 「欧洲自共产主义瓦解後最严重的危机」。 He described Georgia's decision to shell Tskhinvali as a brazen effort to humiliate the Russians. 他形容乔治亚轰炸Tskhinvali的决策是鲁莽的、并让让俄国蒙羞的举动。 "It is clearly a calculated gamble by the Georgians," he said. 「这明显是乔治亚当局计算过的赌注」，他说。 "If they manage to overrun South Ossetia, where there are probably only around 1,000 Russian troops at the moment, they will have humiliated Russia and would have created a triumph for themselves. 「如果他们终於攻占南奥赛提，而其中有一千名俄国士兵部属在那：他们就会羞辱了 俄国政府，并且为自己塑造出胜利的景象。 "They will also have propelled the west into a diplomatic involvement on the ground." 「他们也会把西方世界卷入以外交手段介入地面行动。」 Eyal claimed there was considerable sympathy among western powers over Georgia's difficult relationship with Russia. Eyal认为，西方强权对於乔治亚面对俄国的困境多有同情。 He said the country was suffering from a deliberate "strategic fermentation" of the separatist movement by the superpower. 她说该国正在承受俄国刻意主导的分离主义之「策略性发酵」。 However, he warned that taking on Russia at a time when Medvedev was keen to establish his influence carried significant risk. 但他也警告，当Medvedev政治力於建立他的影响力时的任何挑衅含有极大风险。 Russia could not afford to stand quietly by while Georgia made such a public assault on its troops stationed in the region, he said. 俄国不可能冷冷站着看乔治亚这麽大张旗鼓地攻击一个有俄国部队驻守的区域，他说。 "There is an element of trying to call the Russians' bluff by assuming that the Russians will not be able to afford all-out war in Georgia," he added. 「乔治亚有认定俄国没有能力对乔治亚进行全面战争，所以要逼俄国摊牌的味道，」 他提到。 "I personally don't buy that … Putin cannot afford to be seen to be humiliated in such a brazen, public way. It's inconceivable that the Russians will sit quietly by. 「这我个人是完全不能苟同的...普丁不可能让自己被这麽无耻且公开的手段羞辱的。 俄国人不可能安安静静作在那。」 "The only possible outcome is that either a ceasefire is negotiated and a mediation effort begins, or it goes out into an all-out war." 最可能的发展，要不就是谈出个停火协议然後仲裁调停工作开始，不然就是全面战争。」 Eyal said he believed Georgia's move to strike South Ossetia would generate a mixed reaction from world powers. Eyal说他相信乔治亚要攻击南奥赛提的动作为在世界各国产生不同的反应。 He described a feeling that the country was "more sinned against than sinning" but that there was also significant frustration over the actions of its president. 他形容乔治亚「被侵犯多於侵犯」，但对於其总统的行动也多感失望。 "If it goes into an all out war, the predicament for the west is acute and the crisis would be the worst crisis in Europe since the end of communism. 如果事件演变成全面战争，西方的困境会很严重，且这危机会是欧洲自共产主义终结 後最严重的危机。 "It would be much worse than the Yugoslav wars, mainly because it has the old traditional element of an east-west confrontation. 这会比南斯拉夫战争还严重，因为其中含有东西冲突的老梗。 "There is considerable sympathy for Georgia among western governments such as the US and London. It is clear that the Russians have fermented the separatist movement for a particular strategic purpose. 西方政府如美国和伦敦对於乔治亚的处境多有同情。明显地，俄国为了战略目的扶植了 分离运动。 "There is also, however, an enormous amount of frustration with the reckless behaviour of the Georgian president at this moment." 但西方政府对於乔治亚总统莽撞的行径也多感失望。」 http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2008/aug/08/russia.georgia1 -- --

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