※ [本文转录自 NBA 看板] 作者: jerry7603 (AI) 看板: NBA 标题: [翻译]2006NCAA球员在NBA的成功率 时间: Mon Sep 3 04:22:07 2007 因为之前还蛮多人在讨论NCAA球员在NBA的生涯，所以把之前在82games看到觉得不错的 文章翻译了一下，翻的不好请见谅和指正，我第一次翻译啊。m(_ _)m NCAA PLAYER SUCCESS RATES FOR THE 2006 DRAFT CLASS 2006年NCAA球员在NBA成功的机率。 by Richard Lu, 6/14/06 http://www.82games.com/nbadraft2006.htm About a week ago, I rented Leon Gast’s follow up to When We Were Kings (great movie, if you haven’t seen it). It was basketball documentary entitled 1 Love.It was a little disappointing because it tried to do too much in too short a time frame. However, one line did really stick out to me. Hubie Brown was addressing some high schoolers at a camp and said, “To make it in The Show, you have to have either a game or a specialty.” 大约一个礼拜以前，我租借了Leon Gast主导的电影When We Were Kings(很棒的电影，如 果你还不曾看过)。这是一部篮球纪录片，有少许失望，因为它在太短的时间架构内尝试 做了太多。然而，其中一片段非常吸引我，Hubie Brown在训练营中向一些高中生演讲，说 ：「为了在比赛中成功，你必须拥有勇气或着专长。」 This quote coupled with my never-ending fascination for the draft inspired me to do a little study to see if there was a quantifiable way to determine which college players in this year’s draft had the best chance to succeed in the NBA. 这些话结合了我对选秀会永无止境的迷恋，激发了我做一些小小的研究，去设想如果有一 些可以计量的方法去测定在今年选秀会上有哪一位大学球员有最大的机会在NBA成功。 So, I decided to compare this group of potential draftees from the NCAA Division I level and compared them to players in the past using Similarity Scores. Then from that, I was able to calculate their success rates. 所以，我决定去比较由从NCAA第一级联盟被选入的潜力股，用与以前相近的评分标准将选 秀的人与现役选手做比较，然後从这些比较中，我可以推测他们成功的机率。 Defining the pool of players posed a small challenge because the three-point was introduced in the college game in the 1986-87 season. Therefore, I chose the 1990 draft as the starting point to keep the number of seasons before 1986-87 to a minimum, while making the pool as large as possible. Then, the 2003 draft was the cut off point because it’s still a little too early to fully evaluate the quality of the 2004 and 2005 drafts. To do that, it takes three years to get a pretty accurate evaluation. 定义球员群形成一个小小的挑战，因为三分球在1986-87被引入大学篮球，因此，我选择 1990的选秀会为为起点，将1986~87年以前的季节数控制在最小值，同时也让数据的范围 尽可能的大(这两句不太会翻XD)，然後，2003年的选秀是分界点，因为要对2004、2005 年的选秀做出完整的评价依然有些太早，做出评价，需要三年以得到较为精准的评断。 The Similarity Scores were calculated based on fourteen categories, which are listed below: Height Weight Age Minutes per Game Total Games Played Three-Point Efficiency Free-Throw Efficiency Two-Point Efficiency Assist Rate Turnover Rate Rebound per 48 Minutes Blocks per 48 Minutes Steals per 48 Minutes Personal Fouls per 48 Minutes 相似姓评分根据14个项目，列表如下： 身高 体重 年龄 平均上场时间 出赛总场数 三分球命中率 罚球命中率 两分球命中率 助攻比 失误比 48分钟平均篮板 48分钟平均阻攻 48分钟平均抄截 48分钟平均犯规 The maximum score is 1000 and a significant comparison would fall in the range between 800 and 1000. So, to come up with a success rate, I analyzed every comparable player that was in that range using Minutes per Game and basic production metrics like PER as the primary factors and assigned a point value to them. They are as follows: 最高分是1000分，有意义的比较范围是在800~1000。所以，为了提出成功率，我分析所有 在这个范围内可以比较的球员，用平均上场时间和用basic production metrics(这是啥 ？救人啊~~@@)的平均来当基本因数并且代表了对球员的个别数值，如下： Definite All-Star, Elite Level Player (ex. Kidd, Shaq, Iverson) 0.75–Borderline All-Star, Second Tier Player (ex. Abdur-Rahim,Antoin Walker) 0.5–Starter, min. 25 MPG 0.25–Borderline Starter, Bench Player, 15 MPG – 25 MPG 0–Fringe Player (<15 MPG), Bust 绝对的明星球员，菁英球员(EX. Kidd, Shaq, Iverson)。 0.75-介於先发和明星的球员，第二线的球员(EX. Abdur-Rahim,Antoin，囧alker)。 0.5-先发等级，平均上场25分钟。 0.25-介於先发和替补的球员，平均上场15-25分钟。 0-联盟边界的球员(上场时间少於15分钟)，垃...垃圾...。(这样翻好过分(⊙△⊙)) So, first I calculated a player’s Minimum Success Rate by dividing the number of non-busts by the total number of players in the range, then multiplied by 100. Then, I averaged all the point values to get a Quality Index, which I used to get the percent chance that a player will end up as a starter or All- Star. 因此，首先我计算球员最小的成功机率，藉由在这范围中的所有球员中分隔出不是bust (不想用伤人的字眼@.@)的球员，然後乘以100。接着，我平均所有个别数值以得到一个 品质(？)指数，用以计算一个球员成最终将成为一个先发球员或是一个明星球员。 One problem I ran into was that some players didn’t have enough comparable players to get a valid success rate. In those cases, I expanded the range until I got a large enough group of comparable players. 一个我所遇到的问题是，有些新秀没有足够的球员可以比较以得到令人信服的成功机率， 在这些案例中，我扩大范围，直到我找到足够多的球员可以比较。 rates for around 100 draft prospects, which should cover almost every college player who will be picked. One other note, I adjusted the rates to account for draft position, since a first rounder would have a better chance than a second rounder. So without further delay, here are the players in the 2006 Draft Class with the best chance to be starting at the end of their rookie contract. 得自纯粹数学上计算的过程，我做了大约100份预测，几乎包含所以会被选上的大学球员 ，另外一点，我由於选秀顺位的不同儿调整了机率，因为第一轮被选上的的球员拥有比第 二轮球员更好的机会。那麽，事不宜迟，这就是2006梯走完新人约後谁会有最好的开始： (到这里都是废话。◎△◎。) 1. Ronnie Brewer, SG, Arkansas % Chance to Start – 61.40% Was similar to: Joe Johnson, Caron Butler, Michael Finley This draft isn’t as strong at the top as it has been in the last few years. But if any player is going to develop into an All-Star, it will most likely be Brewer. He has almost every factor going in his favor. He's very athletic with an NBA body, so he can physically handle the league. On the court, he can pretty much do everything with the only question mark being the funky release on his shot. It probably cannot be corrected because it stems from a childhood accident, but it does go in with some regularity. From an intangibles perspective, there should be no questions as he’s had no off-the-court problems. Also, he’s been around the game his whole life, since his father, Ron Brewer was an eight year vet. 这一年的选秀并不如前几年那麽深厚，但如果有人要成为明星球员，Brewer绝对是最有 可能的。他几乎具备所有成功的元素，他拥有NBA级的运动能力，所以可以完全的适应联 盟。在场上他几乎可以做到任何事，他怪异的投球姿势可能是唯一的疑问。这从幼时养 成的习惯大概无法被改正，代表他也有已养成规律的投篮习惯的优点。场下的问题在他 身上也不会发生。来自於他打过八年职业篮球的父亲，他的生命中充满着篮球。 (呃..不过他上场时间好像不太多...有没有一向都超热情的阿爵愿意介绍一下的XD。) 2. Rudy Gay, SF, Connecticut % Chance to Start – 56.71% Was similar to: Jared Jeffries, DerMarr Johnson, Ron Artest Gay’s ceiling may not be as high scouts would like to believe. He has a lot of skills, but his defense seems to be ahead of his offense at this point. He issimilar to Brewer in that he is versatile with a wide range of skills. However,Brewer’s success rate is higher because he holds a significant advantage in the areas of ball-handling and decision-making. Scouts have questioned his assertiveness, but it’s probably a result of unreasonable expectations more than anything.His stats and behavior don’t indicate that he will be number one player. But, he does have great tools, so that will allow him to stick and be very effective in a complimentary role. Gay或许并不像球探们想的那麽好。他拥有许多技巧但目前他的防守比他的进攻要好 ，他和Brewer一样，全能且有着多方面的技巧。然而，Brewer比他更有可能成功的原因 在於他的控球能力和在场上的判断，球探们对他的自信有着疑问，但那或许是因为对他 有着不合理的过高期待所产生的结果，从他的数据和行为中并没有他会成为最好球员的 迹象，但他有着相当好的技术，让他可以在联盟生存，病在球队中扮演成为一个相当不 错的角色。 (记得05年时一度是状元的不二人选....) 3. Shelden Williams, PF, Duke % Chance to Start – 41.35% Was similar to: Othella Harrington, Malik Rose, Alonzo Mourning Shelden Williams is the safest pure big man in the draft. He’s an efficient low post scorer and excels on the defensive end. But he’s 22 and history has shown that players at this age don’t experience a lot of major development. So, he’s pretty much a finished product. Even so, he will most likely be pretty effective as a fifth wheel type role player. Shelden Williams是这次选秀会上，纯大个子中最安全的选择。他是个极有效率的低位 得分者，在防守端上也表现杰出。但是他已经22岁了，历史上显示，在这个年纪的球员 并不常有大幅度的进步，所以他已经差不多是个完成品。即使如此，他依然会是一个相 不错的功能性球员。 4. Rajon Rondo, PG, Kentucky % Chance to Start – 40.81% Was similar to: Eric Snow, Jason Kidd, Dee Brown (Boston Celtics, not IllinoisXDD) From a statistical perspective, Rondo is the best defensive point guard to enter the draft since Jason Kidd. His per minute rebound and steal rates are extraordinarily high for any point guard, much less a guy who’s only about six-two. From a visual standpoint, he possesses amazing quickness, both laterally and in straight-line speed. So this will allow him to cut off penetration and get to the basket, which will be huge key in the NBA nowadays with the new rules in effect. He does have a questionable jump shot, but he makes up for it by being a solid decision-maker and by taking good shots. 从数据来看，Rondo是自从Jason Kidd之後，投入选秀的控球後卫里，防守最好的一位。 每分钟平均的篮板和抄截都远高於其他选秀会中的控球後卫，而且他只有6-2。他拥有极 快的速度，不论是横向移动或是直线移动，这使他可以抄截并且得分，这是现代NBA中重 要的一环。他的跳投非常非常有问题，不过他用当一个能力很强且很值得信任的决策者 和选择好的出手来弥补。 (超赛的控球阿，之前蛮多人讨论的。) 5. Shawne Williams, SF/PF, Memphis % Chance to Start – 39.60% Was similar to: Tim Thomas, Robert Horry, Mike Miller Shawne Williams was most similar to Tim Thomas and that would be a fairly accurate assessment of his abilities on the court. Like Thomas, Williams can take players off the dribble, can post smaller defenders and shoot the three. Defensively, he’s more of a shot blocker than Thomas was at this stage. However, he does share some Thomas’ more negative qualities like spotty shot selection and some motivation issues. But, he will probably find a spot in the league because of his versatility. Shawne Williams和Tim Thomas非常相像，而这将精准的评估他在球场上的能力。像 Thomas可以运球过人，可以单打比他矮小的球员，也可以投射三分。再同样年龄时，比 起Thomas它是个更好的阻攻者。然而，他也有Thomas有的缺点，像是投篮的选择和情绪 问题。不过，由於他的多才多艺，他将能在联盟找到他的生存空间。 (Tim Thomas！？他好像是少数到了30岁还被说有潜力的人XD) 6. LaMarcus Aldridge, PF, Texas % Chance to Start – 37.63% Was similar to: Lorenzen Wright, Samaki Walker, Rasheed Wallace Aldridge is easily the most skilled offensive big man in this draft, but he grades out as a rather suspect defensive player. His defensive stats indicate that he is not nearly as active as he should be, considering the fact that he is very athletic and nearly seven feet tall. Then, from watching him play, he has a tendency to play soft. This could cause problems if he’s drafted by a team with a defensive minded coach. Aldridge是这一次选秀会的高大球员中，在进攻端上最有技巧的，但作为一为防守球员， 他的能力是遭到怀疑的，考虑到他过人的运动能力和7尺的身高，他的防守数据是不及格 的。而且，藉由观看他的Play，他有点软。如果挑选中他的球队，教练是要求防守的 (呃..Nate McMillan相当要求XD。)，那对他来说可能会是个考验。 (我只知道Shaq有要他读大学，好像是特别打电话给他的样子。) 7. Kyle Lowry, PG, Villanova % Chance to Start – 34.88% Was similar to: T.J. Ford, Steve Francis, Keyon Dooling Lowry is another penetrating guard like Rondo, but has more question marks on offense and isn’t anywhere close on defense. Offensively, he doesn’t shoot the ball very well. It wouldn’t matter so much if he didn’t take a lot of questionable shots. In addition, his Assist Rate isn’t as high as it supposed to be for a point guard. Defensively, his stats are good enough, but he does have a tendency to commit cheap fouls. Most likely, he will end up as a solid back-up who could provide a team with an energy lift off the bench. Lowry是另一个和Rondo一样有着穿透能力的後卫，但他在进攻上被打上比较多问号，同 时在防守上也没办法面面俱到。进攻上，他的投篮能力不是很好，但如果他没有做太多 有问题的出手选择，这对他影响不大。死外，他的助攻比对一个控球後卫来说并不高， 防守端上，他的数据够漂亮了，但有时会有些无意义的犯规，可能最後会变成一个替补 一个可以让整队的精神振奋的替补。 (上次看到他灌篮，真的屌。) 8. Brandon Roy, SG, Washington % Chance to Start – 29.00 s similar to: Jim Jackson, Paul Pierce, Antonio Daniels Statistically, Roy didn’t grade out as high as I would’ve expected. Offensively, he checks out well by doing most of his damage as a slasher. He also has sound passing and decision-making skills, which will be an excellent bonus for the team that drafts him. On defense, he didn’t grade out as well. He might be more of a stay-at-home defender than a help guy because his steals and block rates weren’t really high. One concern on the defensive end would be that he is a little foul prone and with the new rules in place, it could be a bigger problem. 数据上，Roy没有达到我的期望，进攻上，他发挥出他所有的破坏力他似乎也有不错的 传球能力和判断能力，那对选他的球队来说会是个很棒的额外收获，在防守上，他并没 有交出成绩单，他比较偏向待在禁区的背动的防守者，而不是积极的补防者，因为他的 阻攻和抄截数字不是很高，另一些关於他防守末端的问题是他有一点犯规不够很的倾向 和NBA的规则(因为和NCAA不同)，这可能会是个大问题。 (没什麽好说的，ROY就是ROY。) 9. Marcus Williams, PG, Connecticut % Chance to Start – 24.52% Was similar to: Jacque Vaughn, Tyronn Lue, Steve Nash(怎麽这三个落 差有点大XDD) Marcus Williams is first specialist to show up on the list. He’s a specialist because his only real skill is his ability is passing, everything else is a little bit spotty. On the positive side, his Assist Rate was the fourth highest among all players evaluated. On the negative side, his scoring ability will be a question mark as he isn’t a good athlete or very quick, so he will have problems getting into the line. This makes his shot selection an even greater question mark, since his eFG% is only about 45.5%. Defensively, he always had great shot blockers behind him, so his flaws were hidden. He probably won’t have that luxury in the pros, so his man defense will be problem since he is limited athletically.(有没有搞错一个比一个长￣▽￣) Marcus Williams是这份名单中的第一个特例(谢谢j大指正)，他是个特例因为他真正的 有的技巧只有传球，其他全部都有点二二六六。正面的来看他的助攻比是被评架的球员 中排名第4的。悲观的看，他的得分能力被打上问号，他不具有很好的运动能力和速度， 所以要上先发可能有一定的难度。他的投篮选择也被打上问号，因为他的投篮命中率只 有45%。防守上，他身边一直都有良好的阻攻手，所以他的一些缺点会被隐藏起来。因为 受限於他有限的运动能力，他的盯人防守可能会有问题。 (可是我第一次看到他打NBA我觉得这家伙真厉害，真不像菜鸟。篮网赚到了XDD) 10. Darius Washington, PG, Memphis % Chance to Start – 23.38% Was similar to: Gilbert Arenas, Chauncey Billups, Maurice Williams This is the only major surprise on this list. Washington compared favorably to Gilbert Arenas even though he had a down year at Memphis this year. Like Arenas, his game is probably more suited to the NBA than to college. His one-on-one abilities will make him a threat on the offensive end because he can penetrate, dish and hit the outside shot. He’s held back a bit since he doesn't seem to understand the game that well. Ideally, he should be drafted by team like Atlanta in the upper part of the second round. In a place like that, he would get playing time to develop his skills and be on a team that will be a patient with his mistakes. 这是这份名单中唯一的大惊奇。Washington被比较为像Gilbert Arenas，即使他他在 Memphis中过了低潮的一年。就像Arenas一样，他的比赛方式可能比较适合NBA而非NCAA 。他的一对一技巧使他在进攻端上有威胁，因为他可以渗透、传递和投射外线，他的 顺位比较低是因为他似乎对不赛还不够了解，理想的状况下，他可能可以被像老鹰队这 样的球队在第二轮前端被选中。在这样的地方，他可以有较多的上场时间去磨练他的技巧 ，带给球队惊奇。(是这意思吗@@？) (我...我没听过他....谁要介绍一下的，m(_ _)m) 11. Tyrus Thomas, PF, LSU % Chance to Start – 23.00% Was similar to: Drew Gooden, Stromile Swift, Antonio McDyess Thomas is projected by most draft experts as a candidate for the top pick. However, his upside is not as high as the experts would think. He’s a phenomenal athlete with great skills on the defensive end. But, he doesn’t have much of an offensive game, being limited only dunks and put-backs. History has shown that post players are generally slow to develop their offensive game. So the odds are that Thomas will be similar to Stromile Swift being a fifth wheel or an energy guy off the bench. Thomas是被许多专家预测在第一顺位的人选。然而，他的优势并没有像专家们想的那麽 高，在防守端上他是个惊人的运动员，也有很好的技巧。但是，他并没有很多进攻的手 段，几乎只有灌篮和补蓝。根据过往，这一类的球员在进攻手段上普遍成长的比较缓慢 所以Thomas可能成为像Stromile Swift成为多余的人(啊？这样翻吗？)或是板凳上精 力充沛的人。 先翻到这，爆肝了，来去休息XDD。还有这只是这个作家自己做的一份统计，大家看看就 好，应该不会吵起来吧XDD。 -- 心情、生活、NBA 我的Blog：http://blog.pixnet.net/che7603 --

※ 发信站: 批踢踢实业坊(ptt.cc) ◆ From: 123.194.81.1 ※ 编辑: jerry7603 来自: 123.194.81.1 (09/03 04:26) ※ 编辑: jerry7603 来自: 123.194.81.1 (09/03 04:26) ※ 编辑: jerry7603 来自: 123.194.81.1 (09/03 04:39) ※ 编辑: jerry7603 来自: 123.194.81.1 (09/03 04:50) ※ 编辑: jerry7603 来自: 123.194.81.1 (09/03 11:01) ※ hotcom:转录至看板 Nets 09/03 19:50 ※ gratitude:转录至看板 UTAH-JAZZ 09/04 09:42 -- 「你知道吗？河田刚入学的时候只有165cm。」（..，我只知道我国小毕业就高他3cm了。） 「据说他在一年之内，足足长了25cm。」（喵的咧...，我後来花了六年才长4cm。） 「从後卫打到前锋，最後主打中锋。」（从中锋打到前锋，最後主打控卫。） 「三种不同位置通通打过，这就是他成为日本高中界最强中锋的原因。」（我...） --

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