C company is considering a project that has an up-front cost at t=0 of $1,500,000. The project's subsequent cash flows critically depend on whether its products become the industry standard. There is a 75 percent chance that the products will become the industry standard, in which case the project's expected cash flows will be $500,000 at the end of each of the next seven years(t=1...7). There is a 25 percent chance that the products will not become the industry standard, in which case the expected cash flows will be $50,000 at the end of each of the next seven years (t=1...7). The company will know for sure one year from today whether its products will have become the industry standard. It's considering whether to make the investment today or to wait a year until after it finds out if the products have become the industry standard. If it waits a year, the project's up-front cost at t=1 will remain at $1,500,000. If it chooses to wait, the subsequent cash flows will remain at $500,000 per year if the product becomes the industry standard, and $50,000 per year if the product does not become the industry standard. However, if it decides to wait, the subsequent cash flows will be received only for six years. Assume that all cash flows are disconunted at 10 percent. If the company chooses to wait a year before proceeding, how much will this increase or decrease the project's expected NPV in today's dollar(t=0), relative to the project's NPV if it proceeds today? 先谢谢看完那麽长的题目， 我想问的是关於解答的部份，解答上分为两部份，一为传统NPV，另一为扩张NPV(等一年) 传统： 成功NPV=９３．４２万 失败NPV=－１２５．６６万 今日的NPV期望值=９３．４２＊０．７５－１２５．６６＊０．２５=３８．６５万 扩张： 成功NPV=６７．７６万 失败NPV=－１２８．２２万 之後注明一年後若产品失败，NPV<0，此时应放弃投资案，即NPV=0。 一年後的NPV期望值=６７．７６＊０．７５＋０＊０．２５=５０．８２万 我想请问的是那传统部份，失败的NPV为什麽就不用放弃投资案、设NPV=0呢？ 不知道是不是漏了题目的意思，还是观念错误了呢？！ 请大家指教，非常感谢～～ -- ◣◢ ◣◢ ◣◢ ? ◣◢ ………… ◣◢ ◣◢ ╯╰ ◣◢ ◢──◣ ◢──◣ ◢──◣ ◢──◣ ◢──◣ ◢──◣╮╭ ◢──◣ ◥ ◤ ◥ ◤ ◥ ◤ ◥ ◤ ◥////◤ ◥ ◤ ◥ ◤ ～ ～ ﹀ \ ＜ \ / / 督噜督 ＜ ＞ ﹀﹀╯│ │ V V 大大大！ ▼ ┴─┴ /＜ ＜\ ∥ ∥ ψQSWEET ＜ ＞ ＞＞ ∥ --

※ 发信站: 批踢踢实业坊(ptt.cc) ◆ From: 220.228.251.160