https://i.meee.com.tw/P83QL0Z.png 全球台湾研究中心(Global Taiwan Institute)美国智库之一 长期被我国高层接见 作者Jackson Lopez在GTI谈台湾的能源问题，他是牛津大学人工智慧政策的研究员 https://i.meee.com.tw/vchLc8T.png Losing the Buffer: What a Less Diverse Energy Mix Means for Taiwan’s Security 失去缓冲：能源结构单一化对台湾安全意味着什麽 gpt懒人包 1. 核三公投「高同意、没过门槛」核电暂时出局 多数投票者支持重启，但因公投门槛设计而失败，赖清德虽松口不排除未来用核，短期内 仍是实质「非核」。 “Almost 75 percent of voters supported the restart, but the referendum fell more than half a million votes short of the required threshold.” 2. 朝野能源路线对撞，「绿能加速 vs 挺核稳供」，变成两边最糟结果 民进党押宝加速绿能、牺牲核电；国民党与民众党则在立院卡预算，压缩绿能推进空间， 让整体能源政策摇摆矛盾。 “The Democratic Progressive Party has long advocated for an accelerated green energy transition at the expense of nuclear power… The outcome has been the worst of both worlds.” 3. AI 资料中心吃电暴增，「工业用电已逾 5 成」未来只会更紧绷 台湾工业用电占比已超过一半，高於 OECD 平均；AI 与机器人相关的资料中心将重压电 力需求，把原有的能源脆弱放大。 “Industry… already consumes more than half of Taiwan’s total electricity; the OECD average is 32 percent.” 4. 绿能卡在制度和电网，「离岸风电与太阳能双双大幅落後进度」 离岸风电受限於成本超支、环评与许可拖延，2025 目标被迫延後；屋顶与大型光电则卡 在高前期成本、并网不稳与趸购费率设计。 “By late 2024, Taiwan had installed only 2.8 GW in offshore wind… growth in solar has been sluggish for years, missing 2020 and 2025 targets.” 5. 天然气正走向「发电一哥」：2030 拟达 5 成占比，却只能撑住 11 天封锁 朝野共识减煤、以 LNG 取代，接收站与燃气机组大量扩建，但天然气难以长期储放，一 旦遭封锁，目前库存只够正常用电约 11 天。 “LNG is intended to provide half of Taiwan’s total energy by 2030… Taiwan’ s current LNG stockpiles would only last for 11 days of normal use under a blockade.” 6. 煤又脏又不讨喜，却是少数能多囤、机动调度的安全缓冲 燃煤库存可撑 40 天以上，遇到危机还能靠节电拉长，且不需新建专用接收站即可临时增 发，但政府仍规划在 2034 年前关掉大型燃煤机组。 “Current coal stockpiles would last more than 40 days of normal use… coal is used as a fallback for failed projects and other closures.” 7. 过度押宝 LNG，让中国「卡能源、卡电力」成本更低 在缺乏本土能源下，单压天然气让中国只要封锁几周，或在现货市场抬价、限缩供给，就 有能力重创台湾电力与经济。 “Beijing likely knows it only needs to wait a few weeks to starve Taiwan’s power supply… China could inflate LNG prices on the open-spot market, straining supply for the island.” 8. 能源转型与国安不必对立：多元能源组合胜过迷信单一「乾净解方」 作者主张，台湾应让绿能市场更自由竞争，同时保留一定的燃煤与核能做战略缓冲，避免 让 LNG 一家独大，牺牲长期安全。 “Energy security and clean energy aren’t necessarily in opposition… Taipei must strive to preserve its nuclear sector and retain coal power capacity, at least until renewables production matures.” 作者的总结 尽管对再生能源进行了投资，但台湾正变得越来越依赖液化天然气（LNG）来满足其能源 需求——这导致了对中共海上封锁的极端脆弱性。为了确保韧性，台湾应该优先考虑多元 化的能源结构，即使这包括燃煤和核能等较不受欢迎的能源。 The main point: Despite investments in renewables, Taiwan is becoming increasingly reliant on liquefied natural gas (LNG) for its energy needs— resulting in extreme vulnerability to a PRC maritime blockade. To ensure resilience, Taiwan should prioritize a diverse energy mix, even if it includes less popular energy sources such as coal and nuclear power. --

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