Bubble, Dream or Trouble? 泡沫－梦想还是梦餍？ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1. The fact of bubbles 泡沫本质 To reject the concession of common opinion requires one's courage; especially, one might need to bear the doubt concerning such decision making either from oneself or others, for a coming period of time. 违逆市场一致看好的方向是需要勇气的 特别是在短期内 甚至是不算短的一段时期内 必须忍受来自自身以及他人对於此判断正确与否的怀疑 As to the theory and features of historical bubbles, we have known and read a lot which the concept seems a cliche to us. But it is rarely discussed that, how could people be so stupid that they make it again and agin? Maybe, we could resort to one of the biggest bubbles in 20st century - Japanese experience. 有关泡沫的历史原理和特性 在课本和坊间的书籍已经成了某种的陈腔滥调 但很少讨论到 为何人会一再地重蹈覆辙? 或许 看看堪称本世纪最大泡沫之一的日本经验 可以有些灵感 The Nikkei reached 10000 points in year 1983; the 5000 points earning demanded a ten-year effort. And later it only costed three years to target 20000 points. The stock continued to soar above 30000 points for another year, and met its final end around 38000 points during the last five months. Sadly, it couldn't last any shorter than it really was... 日经指数在1973年站上5000点 花了10年的时间才爬到万点(1983)　短短的5000点爬了10年 但是很快的上到两万点的时间只花了3年 上到30000点更少 只花不到1年 而最後飙上历史最高点3万八更只花了五个月 而後....（叹气） The lure of bubble could be compared to suspense of harvest. The later we harvest, the more we get. And the required time for deferred harvest is getting shorter as the bubble grows, in which we feel guilty if we don't buy the method, or bubble. 泡沫的迷人在於 越後段的果实越大颗 成熟所需的时间也越短 让人不强摘都觉得对不起自己 But the suspended harvest attracts danger. Once the harvest is severly damaged by the storm, the farmer is destined to lose his stance. For those who sow and harvest only what they need, though they may not have the comparatively abundant harvest, they could still have a good year to enjoy. 不过 强摘的果子不甜 泡沫一但破裂 死在山顶解套的机会几乎是零 而在底部默默耕种的农夫 纵然没有机会获得速成的果实 却往往能够持盈保泰 持续地欢喜收割 All bubbles seem ridiculous after they shrink. The story that Kyoko's land price overtakes the totol of California's is narrated repeatedly as a joke. However, do you know this kind of event exists just at the age we live? 所有的泡沫事後总是让人觉得荒谬 东京的皇居大於加州房地产总值的笑话总是被人一再传颂 但是 你知道吗? 这样的情事其实正在你我所处的时代上演 When PetroChina becomes the world's largest company, twice as big as Exxon Mobile, in terms of market value, you should know it is bubble. When the price of real estate somewhere in Bombay or Shanghi soars as high as in Tokyo, you should know it is bubble. When all the developing countries consent to boost the stock and foreign exchange, you should know it is bubble, cause it is no way that they deserve the similar reward. 当中石油市值飙破Exxon Mobile一倍时 你就该知道那是泡沫 当上海或孟买某些地段的房地产直逼东京 你就该知道 那是泡沫 当所有的新兴国家不分好坏 有志一同地股汇齐涨 你就该知道 那是泡沫 因为不同国家的发展状况不该得到一样的奖赏 When the bubble pumps, it always can find "dream" to backup its value. In 80s, we have so-called the courageous idea of "Japan No.1" In 90s, we have so-called Price-Dreaming Ratio in Nasdaq. And how about 00s? 泡沫扩大时 总是会用"梦想"来支撑其存在之价值 80年代有"日本第一" 90年代有Nasdaq所谓的"本梦比" 00年代呢..?? The bubble may bring people fortune, but it can never help the nation extend from nowhere. The reason is: money is fluid, while the development needs time and hard working, step by step. We could apply the rule to either national development, or personal investment as well. We should found our dream upon a solid ground. However, the solid dream is unwelcome, sometimes even detestable. That's why we can't escape tragedies of bubbles, repeatedly, in history. 泡沫或许可以带来财富 却绝对无法让国家发展一步登天 原因在於 钱是流动的 发展却是要脚踏实地下去一砖一瓦 用时间来换取进步 任何妄想一步登天的梦想都是要栽跟头的 无论是国家发展 或是个人投资 都是一样 筑梦要踏实 很遗憾地 踏实的梦往往不受欢迎　甚至受到唾弃 也因此注定泡沫的悲剧将不断历史重演 2.Where is the safe place? 安全标的在哪? I am sleepy...so XD 爱困了 所以~~XD To be continued.. (待续...) by IsaacChen 已经想好下面要打什麽了 可是打字好累 我本性又很会拖稿 续集搞不好会难产...0rz 请大家多多包涵@@ ------------------------------------------------ 首次尝试双语写作 希望可以让大家熟悉一些简单的英文 本人才疏学浅 如果有错请强者大大不吝指点 如果大家不喜欢看或是有建议 也请告知在下m(_ _)m --

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