该篇报导的翻译 On the antlers of a dilemma The ambitions of Ma Ying-jeou, Taiwan’s president, collide with popular suspicion of China 台湾总统马英九的野心，与热门的中国疑虑问题相冲突 THE fresh-faced good looks have been lined and drawn by the cares of office. His immaculate English is forsaken for the dignity of immaculate Mandarin. Patient replies to questions come wearily, as if said many times before. Yet, six years into his presidency, Ma Ying-jeou’s hair remains as lush and jet-black as any Chinese Politburo member’s. And, speaking in the presidential palace in Taipei, he remains as unwilling as any leader in Beijin to admit to any fundamental flaws in strategy.g to admit to any fundamental flaws in strategy. 这个新鲜又好看的脸孔被政事忧虑刻划出一条条皱纹。为了完美无瑕的中文的尊严，他抛 弃了完美无瑕的英文。他耐心地回答厌烦的问题，就如同之前说了许多次一样。然而，在 他六年的总统任期内，马英九的头发仍然维持像任一个中国当局成员一样，郁郁葱葱又乌 黑。而且，在台北总统府里，他仍然如同任何一位北京领导人一样，不愿承认策略中有任 何基本缺陷。 Perhaps Mr Ma draws inspiration from his portrait of Sun Yat-sen, founder of his ruling party, the Kuomintang (KMT), and, in 1912, of the Republic of China to which Taiwan’s government still owes its name. Sun is revered as a nationalist hero not just by the KMT but, across the Taiwan Strait, by the Chinese Communist Party too. Mr Ma may also hope to be feted on both sides of the strait—in his case as a leader responsible for a historic rapprochement. For now, however, reconciliation between Taiwan and China remains distant. And Mr Ma, once the KMT’s most popular politician, is taunted by opponents as the “9% president”, a reference to his approval ratings in opinion polls last autumn. 或许马先生的灵感来自於孙中山的画像，他的执政党－国民党的创办人，而且，台湾政府 现在的名称也拜1912年孙中山成立中华民国所赐。孙中山不但被国民党，也被台湾海峡对 岸的共产党所尊敬。马先生可能也希望受到两岸人民的爱戴－把历史性的和解当作是他的 领导职责。然而目前为止，台湾与中国之间的调解仍然遥远。而且马先生，曾经是国民党 最受欢迎的政治人物，现被反对者揶揄是「9%总统」，一个来自去年秋天关於他的支持率 的民调结果。 Improving relations with China has been the central theme of his administration, after the tensions of eight years of rule by the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), which leans towards declaring formal independence from the mainland. Mr Ma can boast of 21 agreements signed with China. He reels off the numbers of two fast-integrating economies: a tenfold increase in six years in mainland tourists to Taiwan, to 2.85m in 2013; cross-strait flights from none at all to 118 every day; two-way trade, including with Hong Kong, up to $160 billion a year. 在经过倾向宣布从中国正式独立的民进党，执政8年所导致的紧张情势後，改善与中国的关 系已成为他的施政重点。马先生可以夸耀与中国签订21份协议。他流畅地说出两个快速整 合经济体，在数字上的优势：在六年内，陆客来台旅游数成长10倍，并於2013年来到285万 人次；两岸直飞航班从无到每天118次航班；双边贸易，包含香港，已来到每年1600亿美元。 China’s strategy to reabsorb Taiwan is plain. As the island’s economy becomes more intertwined with that of the vast mainland, China thinks, resistance to unification will wane. Then Taiwan becomes an “autonomous” part of China—like Hong Kong, though allowed its own army. Taiwan will return to the motherland without resort to the missiles and increasingly powerful armed forces ranged against it. But as Mr Ma sees it, cross-strait “ rapprochement” is a first line of defence against Chinese aggression, since “a unilateral move by the mainland to change the status quo by non-peaceful means would come at a dear price”. Politics in Taiwan is framed as a debate about independence or unification but is really about preserving the status quo. 中国对於重新并吞台湾的策略是清楚简单的。当小岛与大陆的经济交织地很紧密，中国 认为，对统一的阻力就会式微。那麽台湾就会成为中国的一个「自治区」，如同香港一样 ，虽然允许拥有自己的军队。在不用诉诸於导弹与日益强盛的军力下，台湾将回归祖国怀 抱。但是马先生的观点认为，两岸的「和解」是抵抗中国侵略的第一条防卫线，因为「中 国单方面使用非和平方式的行动将付出极大代价」。台湾的政治被捏造为处於独立或统一 之争议中，实则是保持现况。 The next step in rapprochement with China would be a meeting between political leaders. In February in Nanjing, once the capital of a KMT government of all China, ministers from China and Taiwan held their first formal meeting since 1949. Mr Ma hoped to meet China’s president, Xi Jinping, in Beijing this November, at the Asia-Pacific Economic Co-operation (APEC) summit. To accommodate Hong Kong and Taiwan, APEC’s members are not “ countries” but “economies”. So Mr Xi and Mr Ma could meet as “economic leaders”, sidestepping the tricky protocol that usually dogs relations, with China viewing Taiwan as a mere province. The Chinese demurred. But Mr Ma thinks a meeting somewhere is “not outside the realm of possibility”. 与中国和解的下一步，将是一个政治领导间的会议。二月时在南京，一个曾是国民党统治 整个中国时期的首都，来自中国及台湾的首长们，自1949年後，办理第一次的正式会议。 马先生希望能在今年9月於北京与中国国家主席习进平，在亚洲太平洋经济合作会议（ APEC）上会面。考量到香港与台湾情势，APEC的成员不是「国家」而是「经济体」。所以 习先生与马先生能以「经济领导人」见会，闪避如同狗对主人之忠诚关系般，微妙的外交 礼节，因为中国仅仅把台湾视为一个省份而已。尽管中国有疑虑，但马先生认为一个会面 「并不是不可能的」。 This backdrop explains why a protest movement against a services-trade agreement with the mainland is more than a little local difficulty for Mr Ma. Students occupying parliament have resorted to undemocratic means, and many of the arguments they and the DPP make about the trade agreement are specious. But they have tapped a vein of popular mistrust of Mr Ma and of economic integration with the mainland. A split persists between native Taiwanese, on the island for generations, and mainlanders, like Mr Ma, whose families came over as the KMT lost the civil war in the 1940s. Protesters portray Mr Ma as either a mainland stooge or as clueless and out of touch. In the occupied parliament, student caricatures give him antlers, a reference to a slip he once made when he appeared to suggest that the deer-antlers used in Chinese medicine were in fact hair from the animal’s ears. 这个背景说明为何对於马先生而言，一个反对与中国的服贸协议的抗议行动，并非只是局 限於台湾当地的困难。学生诉诸於不民主的方式，占领国会，而且许多他们与民进党的论 点是华而不实的。但他们打通了大众对马先生之不信任以及与大陆经济整合的脉络。台湾 本地人一直存在着分裂，本省人，以及像马先生一样，在1940年代因内战失败而随着国民 党过来的外省人。抗议者对马先生的描述，不是大陆傀儡，就是无知且与现实脱钩的人。 在被占领的国会中，学生给他画上了鹿角，这样的做法参考自一个他曾犯下的错误，当时 他似乎把中药使用的鹿茸当作是动物耳朵里面的毛。 Mr Ma says public opinion supports a “Ma-Xi” summit. Joseph Wu of the DPP, however, claims such a meeting would actually damage the KMT in the next presidential election, due in 2016; rather, he says, Mr Ma is trying to leave a personal legacy. The DPP’s lead in the polls alarms not just the Chinese government but also America, which could do without another flare-up in a dangerous region. The stronger China grows, the more Taiwan’s security depends on commitments from America. It switched diplomatic recognition to Beijing in 1979, but Congress then passed a law obliging it to help Taiwan defend itself. 马先生说社会大众赞同一个「马习」高峰会。然而民进党的吴钊燮则认为如此的会议，实 际上将会损害到国民党在2016年的总统大选；他反而认为，马先生正试着留下一屁股债。 民进党领导的民调不但使中国政府惊慌，也惊动了美国，即使这不是在危险地区所爆发的 一场冲突。随着中国势力的增长，美国对台湾安全的承诺更是加剧。美国自1979年转向与 北京邦交，但国会通过一个法案迫使美国援助台湾军事防御。 All political lives end… 结束所有的政治生活… Mr Ma says relations with America are better than they have ever been at least since 1979 and perhaps before. Others are doubtful. In all the talk of America’s “pivot” to Asia, its promises to Taiwan are rarely mentioned. Many in Taiwan paid attention when John Mearsheimer, an American academic, suggested in the National Interest, a policy journal, that there is “a reasonable chance American policymakers will eventually conclude that it makes good strategic sense to abandon Taiwan and to allow China to coerce it into accepting unification.” For some, abandonment is a fact of life and unification a matter of time. “No one is on our side strategically, diplomatically, politically; we have to count on China’s goodwill,” an academic in Taipei argues. 马先生说，与美国的关系比自1979或更早之前，变得更好了。其他人却怀疑，美国针对亚 洲的谈论重点，甚少提到他们对台湾的承诺。在台湾许多人注意到美国学者约翰米尔斯海 默在政治月刊《国家利益》上，提到「这是有可能的，美国决策者最终得到以下结论：放 弃台湾并让中国去胁迫其去接受统一不谓为一个好的战略判断。」对一些人而言，放弃是 生活中的事实，而统一是时间上的问题。「没有人在战略上、外交上与政治上站在我 们这边，我们必须去依赖中国的善意」，在台北的一个学者如此争论。 Mr Ma has tried to steer what seems a sensible middle course between such defeatism and the adventurism of those in the DPP who would like to confront and challenge China. But he sounds weary with the effort, and Taiwan’s people seem weary of him. Their pragmatism and the DPP’s internecine strife may yet see them elect another KMT president in 2016. But if Mr Ma hoped to leave office with cross-strait relations stabilised, and with his own role as an historic peacemaker recognised on both sides and around the world, he seems likely to be disappointed. 马先生尝试行驶在，介於民进党人士对抗与挑战中国的战败主义及冒险主义之间的一条 明智的中庸之道上。他不厌其烦、努力地说，但台湾民众似乎对他厌烦了。国民党的政治 实用性以及民进党间自相残杀的争斗，还是有可能让该党在2016年选出另一个国民党总统 。但假如马先生希望在离开办公室前把两岸关系建立起来，并做好让双边所认为的历史性 和事佬的角色，看起他很有可能要失望了。 -- Wenn man ist nicht bereits, völlig ein Ding zu verstehen, dann hat man kein Recht, sich das zu widersetzen. --

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