※ [本文转录自 Stock 看板 #1XAEp9mn ] 作者: zon (Zon) 看板: Stock 标题: [心得] The Disciplined Trader 纪律的交易者 时间: Fri Aug 27 21:46:46 2021 阅读The Disciplined Trader™: Developing Winning Attitudes by Mark Douglas（ 台译：纪律的交易者）一书，严格来说学不到什麽高深的投资心法或技巧，它的价值建立 在一场读者与自己的对话。因为本书提出的理念就是了解自己→定义规则→执行规则，至 於规则是什麽，因人而异(*)，因为每个人的筹码不一，能承受的风险压力本来就不一样 。 在简短的主动投资经验过程中，Value Investing → Buy and Hold一直是我坚持的投资 方式。惟信心不坚，在投机股票（SPAC / Meme / 鸡蛋水饺股）大流行的时候，随便买随 便赚，即使股票体质不好，也会自动自发的帮所选的股票找理由，然後越赔越买，最後躺 平。这个时候纪律的交易者这本书映入我的眼帘，觉得很有收获。因为本书很薄，所以我 挑了英文版本阅读，底下感想若理解有误，还请大家包含。 (*)本书是有提及明显的规则数字，如跌几%就要卖掉，但因为公司性质的不同，我不觉得 能通用，需要持股的投资者自行判断。 加了萤光笔重点的好读网志版本： https://www.zoncheng.com/2021/08/0415-disciplined-trader-developing.html --- CHAPTER 1 - Why I Wrote This Book ..., from my trading experiences, observations, and research, I have discovered that all traders—both winners and losers—seem to share some very common experiences. Either in the beginning or at some point early in their trading career, all traders experience confusion, frustration, anxiety, and the pain of failure. The few traders who pass through this phase to accumulate wealth are those who eventually confront and work through some very difficult psychological issues about what it means to be a trader, and this process of realization and change normally takes several years, even for the best of them. 感想：作者认为大部份股市交易者，无论是的赢家或是输家，在投资生涯的早期，都背负 着心理压力。会列出这一点是因为我早期采指数型投资，所以没有感受过任何压力；主动 投资的初期又遇到大顺风，不但没有压力，还巴不得所有现金都投进去；逆风时，看着利 润逐渐归零，虽然没蚀到本，但那种感觉不会是快乐。 --- This confidence would naturally develop as people learned to trust themselves to do whatever needed to be done, without hesitation. As a result of this kind of self-trust, they would no longer need to fear the seemingly unpredictable and erratic behavior of the markets. However, the main point I am making here is that the process of change that took place was in the mental environment and psychological makeup of each individual trader; the markets didn’t change, the tools that were used didn't change, the trader did. 作者认为当投资者个人的心法或是纪律建立起来後，就能有信心去面对无法预期的外部环 境。因为会一直改变的其实是投资人本身的心理。 -- ..., the learning process and the kind of personal transformation that was necessary to enable me to write this book was distinctly different from the kind of learning process I experienced as a trader to realize why a book like this needed to be written. One learning process was chosen and the other was forced. What I mean by forced is, I had to lose my house, my car, and practically everything else I owned to learn some of the ways in which I needed to change my perspective to operate in the trading environment effectively. Losing all my possessions was a complete life-altering experience, an experience that taught me a lot about the nature of fear and the debilitating effects it has on a person’s ability to trade effectively. --- Why deal with anything if the next trade can make you rich? All the traders I knew, including myself, were affected by this type of “big-trade” mentality. In fact, my big-trade mentality was so pervasive that I would refuse to take profits of $500 or $750 in many trades even when I knew that’ s all there was to be made. This may sound absurd, but I wouldn't take profits of such small amounts, because, at that time, it felt as if the market was insulting me by offering such paltry sums compared to what I needed or expected. 感想：曾经是少年股神的作者曾经在爆富之後也因因投资失利走向破产。让我想起市场顺 风的时候，我甚至把部份投机／跟风的股票当彩券，就算每日产生的小额的损失我也不在 乎，因为本梦比好高的，每天打开帐户，总额还是上涨 – 但转为逆风时，就完全不是这 麽一回事了……即使我有作风险控管，即使这些投机股票的占比不到我总金额的5%，但损 失的事实，不会改变。 自我反省时，甚至我觉得靠着Lifeismoney版省下一些小钱的我，根本愚蠢。 --- CHAPTER 2 - Why a New Thinking Methodology? The choice is you can either adapt or continue to experience some very painful lessons. A quick hint: the intensity of your emotional discomfort and pain you experience as a trader is an excellent indication of how much you will have to change to trade without fear and be consistently successful. 感想：交易的过程并非一帆风顺，过程中的痛苦都是你成长的来源。虽然看着像是一句废 话，但亲身体验後，才能明白并非虚言。 --- CHAPTER 5 - Prices Are in Perpetual Motion with No Defined Beginning or Ending This is very much different from the market environment where you can be a passive loser. Once you put on a trade, you have to actively participate to end your losses. You don’t need to do anything to continue to lose, and the market could go against your position indefinitely. 感想：这段话个人觉得非常有趣 - 当你投资後，一旦失利，除非主动的去停损，不然这 场让你心痛的旅程，就算归零，也会留在你的记忆里，影响你後续的决策，不会结束。。 --- CHAPTER 6 - The Market Is an Unstructured Environment The typical trader will do most anything to avoid creating definition and rules because he does not want to take responsibility for the results of his trading. If he knows exactly what he is going to do and under what conditions, then he would have something by which to measure his performance, thus making himself accountable to himself. This is exactly what most traders don’t want to do, preferring instead to keep their relationship with the market somewhat mysterious. This creates a real psychological paradox for traders, because the only way to learn how to trade effectively is to make oneself accountable by creating structure; but, with accountability comes responsibility. The typical trader desperately wants to make money, but he has to do it in a way where there is no direct connection between what he does and the outcome that it produces, thereby avoiding responsibility if things don’t turn out satisfactorily. To develop a plan, you have to anticipate events to some extent relative to the depth of your plan. When you plan your trades in advance, you are putting your vision of the future and creative abilities on the line, so to speak, and making yourself accountable to yourself. Your plan either works or it doesn’t; you either have the ability to execute your plan or you don't. In any case, it is your plan and your ability to follow it and, therefore, it is difficult to shift responsibility and lay the blame somewhere else if things don’t work out. 感想：记得我有一段时间会不想打开帐户的App，也就是大家常说的删App. 我个人认为健 康的交易当然不是整天死盯着帐户或每个标的涨跌，而该是当你愿意时，能随时从容的面 对结果，对自己的交易负责。 Now, when a trader doesn't understand market behavior well enough to know what he is going to do and under what market conditions he is going to do it- —but if at the same time, he is very attracted to the action and the opportunities he knows exist and if he is also impatient with the learning process—his impatience and attraction will make him feel compelled to do something, even if he doesn’t know what he should do. How do you think the typical trader will resolve this dilemma? He will play follow the leader, ... If the prices have made any significant move during or at the end of the trading day, all the crowd followers get together to find any reason or rationale that might explain their (the market's) behavior and put it into some understandable context. However the leaders do not feel compelled to talk to anyone and usually don’t. For the crowd follower, trading this way serves many functions. It keeps his relationship with the market mysterious. If he makes money, he must have done something right. If he loses money, he can blame the market, which is obviously very acceptable behavior among traders. This way he can maintain an illusion of being rational and responsible and whatever happened to him also happened to a lot of other traders, so at least he knows he is not alone, which then creates a sense of comradeship among competitors. --- When you win it is so pleasurable, it creates a need to repeat it and compels you to try again. When you follow the crowd (instead of anticipating the crowd, which would take planning) or trade off news items, tips, or isolated signals from technical systems, the antic-ipation of the next attempt to win automatically produces fear and anxiety. Why? Because, you can't define the market conditions or the decision-making process that produced the last win, and so you can’t assure yourself of the next. If you don't know what you did to win the last time, you obviously don’t know what to do to keep from losing this time. The end result is intense anxiety, frustration, confusion, and fear. You feel out of control, experiencing a sense of powerlessness as you are swept along by the ensuing events and wondering what the market is going to do to you today. 感想：这一段我觉得很写实，主要是说一般的交易者如果没有自己的的策略，很容易就跟 着所谓的”高手”（ex: 老师、顾问、大大）进行布局。这样的作法有很多的”好处”， 除了满足从众心理之外，另一方面也与自已的交易结果处於一种神秘关系。赚钱的时候当 然是因为我是股神，眼光神准，赔钱的时候也”觉得好像”不用对自己的交易负责，反正 有人陪着我，我不孤单…。 而真正的老师、大大、前辈、教主，其实只是在与自己对话 ，他们不理会杂音，只对自己的交易负责。 此外，一旦你跟着你心中的”高手”赚到钱，这份喜悦就会让你下次交易的时候也采取同 样的策略。这让我想起2020年末至2021年初期，我追着美股三圣中Elon Musk的每句话与 Cathie Wood操盘ARK基金的每笔进出。 --- CHAPTER 14 - Techniques for Effecting Change Each choice we make on a conscious level, even just to choose to redirect our thoughts from an inappropriate belief (relative to our needs now), will start to make a neurological change in the electrical circuitry of our brain. If you go as far as to make a choice that is inconsistent with a belief you want to recharge and then act out of that belief, it will eventually lose its power and consequently lose its potential to affect our behavior. WRITING AS A TECHNIQUE TO EFFECT CHANGE Every movement we make alters the physical landscape in some way. The more dramatic or expressive our movements, the greater the alterations. By the same token, every thought alters the mental landscape in some way. The more expressive our thoughts, in other words, the more energy we generate in our willingness to think, the greater the potential to effect some change. The change comes from what we are willing to think. Wanting to direct your conscious thought process toward a specific intent is what effects this change. I have found writing is one of the most powerful tools available to focus my thinking and effect some change I desire. When we write it is a physicalized version of what is going on inside of our mental environment. Your willingness to write about certain issues directs your attention and gives the rest of the parts of your mental environment instructions. What flows up or out of your consciousness is what is there. Once you find out what is there, you can then direct any changes by writing back instructions into the mental environment. This can be a very powerful technique, depending on how much power you put into it. 感想：这一段大抵就是为什麽我撰写与分享书摘心得文的原因，也是阅读本书获得的另一 个收获。除此之外，很多大大们都建议要纪录自己的交易进出理由，这点我也是很推荐的 。即使现在能轻易的从证券商的系统里查出自己的每笔交易，但它们不会告诉未来的你， 为什麽当下作了这些交易，而记忆，是会骗人的。 --- CHAPTER 15 - The Psychology of Price Movement The most fundamental component of the markets is traders. Keep in mind that traders are the only force that can act on prices to make them move. Everything else is secondary. What makes a market? Two traders willing to trade, one wanting to buy and one wanting to sell, who agree on a price and then make a trade. 感想：交易市场上最重要的组成就是每个交易者。只爱单机游戏，不爱线上游戏的我会进 行交易，会不会无形之中，其实我参与了一场全球最大的放置型手游？ --- CHAPTER 16 - The Steps to Success Nothing’s worse than missing a “perfect” opportunity. However, if you could have, you would have; it’s that simple. The sooner you accept this, the sooner you will be able to take advantage of these missed opportunities instead of beating yourself up over them. Besides there really isn’t anything to miss because the markets are in perpetual motion and will continue to be until everyone agrees on value. As long as the price keeps changing, there will always be another opportunity. 感想：选定好标的後，我通常会为标的物设下目标价。通常这会有三种结果，错过好标的 ／成功抄底／估值错误，越摊越平。最理想的情况也许是成功抄底，但如果是第一种情况 ，我觉得本文提供了一个很好的心态，除非很有信心，别追高，让我们耐心遇见下一次的 "完美"吧！ STEP TWO: DEALING WITH LOSSES Execute your losing trades immediately upon perception that they exist. When losses are predefined and executed without hesitation, there is nothing to consider, weigh, or judge and consequently nothing to tempt yourself with. There will be no threat of allowing yourself the possibility of ultimate disaster. If you find yourself considering, weighing, or judging, then you are either not predefining what a loss is or you are not executing them immediately upon perception, in which case, if you don’t and it turns out to be profitable, you ate reinforcing an inappropriate behavior that will inevitably lead to disaster. Or if you don’t and the loss worsens, you will create a negative cycle of pain that once started will be difficult to stop. The next error after letting a loss get out of hand is usually not taking the next opportunity, which invariably is always a winning trade. After which, we get so angry at ourselves for passing up that opportunity that we make ourselves susceptible to any number of other trading errors, like taking a trade that was a tip from another trader, which invariably is always a loser. 感想：作者除了建议交易者培养勇於面对亏损的心理之外，也鼓励交易者在造成预期损失 後，迅速的处理亏损，以免养成错误的习惯，最终导致更多的损失。 --- STEP THREE: BECOMING AN EXPERT AT JUST ONE MARKET BEHAVIOR Keep in mind that since the market is in perpetual motion, it puts you in a position of having to make never-ending assessments of the current risk in relationship to the current possibilities for reward. To do this effectively, you will have to learn to observe the market as if you were not in a position. When you are about to enter into a position, ask yourself, by imagining, what the next five minutes or tomorrow (depending on your time frame) would have to look like to validate your trade, to confirm that the trend is still intact. Then, again, place your orders at the appropriate price in advance of the market's getting there. 感想：购买价格应该考虑的是明天，而不是过往绩效。如果觉得往後的你面对这个价格不 会後悔，那麽就出手吧！ --- 如果你看到这里，可能会觉得都是老生常谈或是投资ABC. 但如同我开头说的，阅读这本 书的价值建立在一场读者与自己的对话，看英文版对我额外的附加价值只是拉长了这场对 话的时间，因为书太薄，才200多页。对我而言，这场过程是「听Podcast/ 看Youtube/ 看心得文 / 看投资笔记…」等无法得到的，因为以上的媒介虽然传达相同的讯息，但太 迅速就过去了，这也是现在速食社会看书的价值吧！ 抛砖引玉，希望大家在投资的路上都能顺心。 --

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※ 发信站: 批踢踢实业坊(ptt.cc) ※ 转录者: zon (59.115.188.104 台湾), 08/27/2021 21:51:08