因为是乱写的 所以用闲聊 完整图文 http://fxeric0118.blogspot.com/2008/05/080516.html 几个最近市场重点及想法: 1.美元指数上扬後渐稳︰自从上月在三月中及四月中创下两个71左右的底之後，稳定上扬 。月线也升至季线以上，形成黄金交叉。 最近几个经济数字虽然并未全数转强，房市指标还是下跌，但是下滑的数度变慢，造成投 资人对美元的信心也渐渐浮现。至少以往经济数字不好时，对美元的追杀力道不再现。 2. 股票市场波动降低︰股价慢慢向上，代表市场投资人风险爱好的VIX指数也缓缓下滑， US ViX 跌至16.3，欧洲的也是下滑。风险爱好度增加时，股市是一定受惠的，反映到汇 市上来，一般以AUD 或是高利息的为标的，低利率的像是CHF 或是JPY都得注意。美元反 而是相对中性受惠於此指数。 3. 信用市场渐渐放松︰看起来美国银行打呆还是会继续，但这是坏消息吗？前几天瑞典 央行的一份报告中提到两个重点正好可以解释信用市场问题 一是最近想卖的券都卖的掉 ，债券市场从前一阵子的恐慌己经回复平稳。二是想要筹资的钱都能够筹资。而且刚好 Fed 老板Bernanke昨天也鼓励银行加紧扩充资本的脚步，如此市况如同之前一样糟糕，筹 资行为还是会十分困难，但目前看来是OK的。 (Bernanke) "I strongly urge financial institutions to remain proactive in their capital-raising efforts," Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke said in a speech to the Chicago Fed Bank's annual banking conference. "Doing so not only helps the broader economy, but positions firms to take advantage of new profit opportunities as conditions in the financial markets and the economy improve," Bernanke said. Bernanke praised the efforts by banks and financial firms to raise capital to date, saying their efforts have been "impressive." But he said the new capital raised by firms hasn't matched the losses they have suffered from subprime mortgage-backed securities and other complicated derivatives. There was little to worry about the investments that sovereign wealth funds are making in the US financial system, he said. These investments "on the whole have been very, very positive," Bernanke said. 另外几个货币特别要留意，像是英镑的疲弱几乎已经确认，其实BOE本身并不是如此希望 降息，仍然在降与不降间摇摆，但是市场似乎已经失去耐心；纽币疲弱已经连高利息都无 法支撑，经济面都看不到好消息。 亚洲的央行在通膨和贬值拉成长中的抉择，往往会倒向贬值那端，韩圜就是一例，我想台 湾央行应该也不脱这种思考模式。 -- "If you think writing about the fortunes of the stock market is tricky, try getting your arms around currencies" — Bill Gross, PIMCO, Investment Outlook , Jan 2002 "如果你认为分析股市走势很困难，那麽试试分析汇率，这比分析股市难太多了" — Bill Gross，太平洋投资管理公司投资展望 2002年一月 --

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