http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/andruws-best-case-scenario/ 这是Fangraphs上 一篇去年讨论Rangers花五十万赌安猪的文章 如果不想看翻译的，可以直接跳到最下面看结论XD 另外徵求勇者帮我转总板XD ========= Over the weekend, Andruw Jones signed a minor league contract with the Texas Rangers that will pay him $500,000 if he makes the opening day roster and has incentives that could push his total compensation up to just over $1 million. This is, obviously, a huge fall from last winter, when he coaxed an $18 million per year salary out of the Dodgers based on his strong performance history. (交代去年的时空背景和科科缇的脑麻Contract，略过不翻XD) However, as we all know, Jones’ career track has been on a noticeable downward trend. Let me show you four seasons of performance: 安猪的Career看起来是呈现一个走下坡的趋势， 现在让我引用某人在26-29岁时候的数据 Age 26: .321/.390/.561, .403 wOBA, 679 PA Age 27: .282/.346/.467, .348 wOBA, 675 PA Age 28: .252/.333/.449, .344 wOBA, 555 PA Age 29: .172/.261/.253, .235 wOBA, 253 PA That’s a pretty nasty downward trend in what should be the prime of a career. From superstar at 26 to worst hitter in baseball at 29… that’s quite the fall from grace. Except, you may have noticed, those numbers don’t belong to Andruw Jones. Those numbers come from the career log of Jermaine Dye. 在一个正常棒球员的年纪，这是个非常严重的死亡交叉 从26岁的时候打出Superstar的成绩，到29岁的时候变成联盟最鸟蛋的打者之一 但是你可能发现了，这并不是安猪的成绩 这个数据，其实是Jermmaine Dye的 It has seemingly passed the memory of some, but it wasn’t too long ago that we saw a prominant right-handed power hitting outfielder collapse entirely at a young age. In what should have been the best years of his career, Dye posted one of the worst seasons in recent baseball history. 可能某些人早已忘记，但是这并不是非常久之前 有一个超强的右打外野手在年纪尚未达到崩坏标准之前完全的崩坏 在应该是他们生涯的高峰的时候，打出世界上最鸟蛋的一季 And then he came back. 但是爷爷，您回来了！ Since that awful 2003 season, Dye has posted seasonal wOBAs of .338, .417, .343, and .346. In fact, his five seasons since his disaster season are actually better than the five seasons that led up to his collapse. Not only did he return to previous form, but he raised game even beyond previously established levels. 自从2003 (时年29岁) Dye的wOBA是.338, .417, .343, 和 .346 事实上，自从2003之後，Dye不只打出跟他 之前一样水准的成绩，还更超越了他之前的巅峰 Now, in Dye’s case, there was obviously extenuating circumstances – he fouled a ball off his leg in the 2001 playoffs, fracturing his tibia, and faced significant knee problems for the next few years. There is no doubt that Dye’s health was a significant issue during his collapse. Once Dye’s knee regained full health, so did the thunder in his bat. 在Dye的案例中，这其实是有机可循的 2001季後赛的时候，一颗自打界外球打断了他的胫骨， 接下来的几年，他的膝盖一直出问题 毫无疑问的，Dye在这几年中，健康对他一直是个问题，在他回复健康之後， 他的棒子也跟着回来了 Should we consider Andruw’s weight problems to be similar to Dye’s knee problems? Well, we might have a lot less sympathy for Jones, who caused his own physical issues, when Dye was the recipient of some bad luck. However, whatever caused them, the underlying fact is that both had significant physical problems that limited their ability to hit a baseball, and that Jones’ problems are no less fixable than Dye’s were, given he puts in the effort to get himself back into shape. 我们要不要把安猪痴肥的问题归类为跟Dye的膝盖相同的问题？ 我想，我们可能不太需要同情安猪，因为不像Dye是衰洨，这是他自找的 但是无论这些问题是怎麽来的， 事实是，这些都造成了他们生理上的问题，限制了他们击球的能力 这麽说吧，安猪的问题不会比Dye的问题来的棘手， 而且我们知道安猪有在努力解决他体重的问题 Make no mistake – I am not saying that Andruw Jones, heading into his age 32 season, is about to rip off five seasons that match what Jermaine Dye has done since 2004. However, I think we should all keep Dye in mind when we jump to conclusions about what 250 terrible plate appearances mean in the context of a player losing all abilities to hit a baseball. 不要误会我，我不是说即将迈入32岁的安猪会打得像Dye 2004之後一样 但是我们应该要把Dye放在心里尊敬（误）而且不要妄下断论说 250个糟糕的PA告诉我们这个球员已经失去了所有的打击能力 For the Rangers, this is a pretty terrific move. The Ballpark in Arlington is a great place to hit, and a little confidence goes a pretty long way when you’re trying to convince someone that their hard work has a payoff. If Jones really does commit himself to getting back in baseball shape to try and save his career, the Rangers could easily find themselves with a guy who reminds everyone that he can still hit a baseball. 对於条子来说，这是一个很棒的约 阿灵顿球场不能铁齿，要放在心里尊敬，说不定会是安猪信心回升的关键 如果安猪可以很有决心的要减重，条子应该很快就可以看到收获 Just like we shouldn’t have written Dye’s eulogy in 2003, neither should we kill off the career of Andruw Jones prematurely. He’s going to have to work his tail off, but there’s upside here. 就像我们不应该在2003就对Dye吹西索米一样， 我们也不应该直接说安猪的生涯完蛋了 安猪需要很努力的证明他自己，但是事情不是憨人所想的这麽简单（误） =========== 重点:安猪的生长曲线可能会像Dye 一样先达到一个Peak,然後走几年的下坡， 回升之後，再达到一个peak. 各位看官，您相信吗？XD --

※ 发信站: 批踢踢实业坊(ptt.cc) ◆ From: 160.94.47.16 ※ 编辑: tirple 来自: 160.94.47.16 (05/02 06:29) ※ 编辑: tirple 来自: 160.94.47.16 (05/02 06:30) ※ 编辑: tirple 来自: 160.94.47.16 (05/02 06:31) ※ 编辑: tirple 来自: 160.94.47.16 (05/02 06:32) ※ 编辑: tirple 来自: 160.94.47.16 (05/02 06:41)