by Joe Pawlikowski - 4/30/2010 In the past few days I've discussed two components of the Yankees-Tigers-Diamondbacks trade over the winter. Both Austin Jackson and Edwin Jackson present interesting cases. The former has gotten off to a hot start despite some concerning peripherals, and the other has gotten hit around a bit in two of his five starts. Arizona has actually seen better from another pitcher their received, 25-year-old right-hander Ian Kennedy. 去年的三方交易案中的A-Jax跟E.Jackson 前者开季火热尽管有些地方很让人担心 後者是在五场先发中的两场被打到出汁 但小蛇拿到的Ian Kennedy的确有进步 In March I wondered about Kennedy's potential in the NL. He flopped during his limited exposure with the Yankees, but a move out of the AL East might have been the boost Kennedy needed to get going. He is, after all, a former first-round draft pick who so consummately dominated the minors during his first professional season that he essentially forced the Yankees to call him up (well, that and Mike Mussina's breakdown). An impressive September earned him a rotation spot in 2008, but that ended in disaster. 三月的时候我很担心Kennedy在NL到底行不行 在洋基没啥上场时间让他没空间表现 离开美东应该是对他好的 至少也是个第一轮 因为屠杀了minor而被nyy叫上来Major 九月的良好表现让他在2008赢得了rotation 但结果是场灾难 In Arizona it appears things are starting to come together. Throughout the minors Kennedy displayed excellent strikeout skills, 9.9 per nine innings, or 28 percent of the batters he faced, while walking just 2.8 per nine. During his Yankees tenure he struggled in both areas, but with the Diamondbacks he has excelled. In 30.1 innings he has struck out 27, 8.01 per nine, or 21.6 percent of all batters faced. He has also kept his walk rate low, just 2.37 per nine. This success hasn't exactly shown up in the results yet -- he owns a 4.45 ERA -- but there are some signs that could change. 在Arizona好像该来的都来了 Kennedy在minor就有很棒的K/9、BB/9只有2.8 在NYY时他这两项都吃鳖 但在ARI都很棒 30.1局K掉了27人 BB/9只有2.37 但K/BB的成功没有显示在他的ERA上 但某些迹象显示可能会有变化 Kennedy's biggest problem this year has been the home run. He has allowed 2.08 per nine, or one every 15.6 batters faced. The home runs have been concentrated, with the Dodgers hitting three and the Phillies two, each in a single game. That type of home run rate stems from his ridiculously high HR/FB percentage. Kennedy will not see 17.9 percent of his fly balls leave the park this year, so his home run rate should drop as the season progresses. This shows up in his xFIP, 4.07. Kennedy最大的问题是容易放烟火 HR/9高达2.08 但这些HR蛮集中的 躲人轰了他3只、费城人轰了他两只 都在同一场比赛里 这样的HR频率来自於夸张的HR/FB% 理论上应该会下降 从他的xFIP只有4.07看得出来 In terms of batted balls, a pitcher like Kennedy, who doesn't blow away hitters, could do more to induce ground balls. In the minors he induced about 39.7 percent grounders, which is just a tick above where he currently sits, 37.9 percent. He has mixed in a two-seamer more frequently this year, so perhaps as he throws that more he'll generate more grounders. That will not only help produce more ground ball outs, but will also help his efforts to keep the ball in the park. 像他这样的投手 应该想办法多制造一点滚地球 在minor他有39.7%的GB% 现在只有低一些些 今年他有使用更多的2-seamer 也许之後会制造更多GB 不只能多制造滚地出局 也能帮他想办法把更多球留在场内 While he has always been a four-pitch pitcher, Kennedy showed reluctance to use his curveball in 2008. Instead he used his fastball 63.3 percent of the time. Some pitchers can get by with that usage level, but when the pitch averages 89.1 mph, secondary stuff becomes necessary. Kennedy went mostly to his changeup, but that apparently was not fooling AL hitters. This season he has thrown 56.5 percent fastballs, though that includes many more two-seamers. He has relied heavily on his changeup, throwing it 20.6 percent of the time, but has also mixed in his curveball much more frequently. It accounts for 16.9 percent of his pitches. This comes at the cost of his slider, a pitch that AL hitters destroyed in 2008. 虽然他一直是个4-pitch投手 在2008年他却不太用他的curveball反而是丢了63.3%的FB 有些投手可以用这麽多FB投得好 但对於只有89.1m的投手 secondary stuff变得极重要 Kennedy大部分仰赖他的CHG 但明显骗不到AL的打者 这一季他用了56.5%的FB 其中很多还是2-seamer 大量使用他的CHG-20.6% 同时加上更多的curveball-16.9% 牺牲掉的是他的Slider 也是2008年AL打者完爆他的球种 There are still some negative signs with Kennedy, starting with his .225 BABIP. That will come up, but his declining home run rate could off-set that. Combined with a high strikeout rate -- and only 2 of 27 have been of the pitcher -- and a low walk rate, and he could certainly turn in a good season. It's too early to definitively conclude that Kennedy's luck will change for the better, but there are some indications that it will. 但Kennedy仍然有一些其他负面的迹象 例如他.225的BABIP 这BABIP会上修 但同时应该下修的HR/FB%会抵消这个效果 加上他的高K%跟低BB% 他三振的27位打者还只有2位是投手 他应该会有一个不错的球季 要说Kennedy的运气会好转还言之过早 但是至少有一些现象说会这样的 --

※ 发信站: 批踢踢实业坊(ptt.cc) ◆ From: 140.112.217.50 ※ 编辑: jdtrue 来自: 140.112.217.50 (05/01 02:56)