Personally, I don’t see any scenario that Kemp would figure into the top four players selected on draft day, but I’ve heard rumblings of people willing to do it, ahead of Ryan Braun and Chase Utley (the top three as Albert Pujols, Hanley Ramirez & Alex Rodriguez). I like Kemp as much as the next guy. I have him ranked as the second outfielder off the board and a sure fire first round pick, but taking him in the top four just seems curious to me, even if you put Ryan Braun in the Top Three. 这不是指Kemp是今年的第四顺位，但据说很多人都愿意用这个顺位来选他，早於Utley跟 Braun。我很爱Kemp，我认为他是今年FB的第二号OF也绝对是第一轮货，但第四顺位真的 值得吗? He’s a stud offensive player, as he displayed early and often in 2009: 606 At Bats .297 Batting Average (180 Hits) 26 Home Runs 101 RBI 97 Runs 34 Stolen Bases .352 On Base Percentage .490 Slugging Percentage .349 Batting Average on Balls in Play There is no number there that I don’t think he could repeat. 以上Kemp 09球季所缴出的数字，没有任何一项我认为他今年办不到。 He’s a career .299 hitter The power came courtesy of a very realistic 14.4% HR/FB (his career mark is 13.6%) and 38.3% flyball rate He stole 35 bases in 2008 He’ll be joined in the lineup by the likes of Manny Ramirez and Andre Ethier, meaning there will be plenty of opportunities to both score and drive in runs. Kemp是一位 生涯平均打击率.299的打者 他的炮管非常实在，去年的HR/FB率是14.4%，生涯平均是13.6%，飞球率38.3%。 他08年偷了35个垒包。 他打线里面的夥伴有Manny和Ethier，这代表着他有大量的得分或是打点机会。 He’s a star and we all know it, but what is the justification for taking him over someone like Braun (or Utley for that matter), who has: Home Run totals of 34, 37 and 32 the last three seasons. The 32 HR year (2009) came courtesy of a 34.1% flyball rate when he had been at 44% his first two seasons. He has a realistic chance of reaching 40 in 2010 Has posted a career average of .308 including seasons of .324 and .320 In 2009 posted 114 RBI and 113 R. Considering he shares a lineup with Prince Fielder, he should easily be just as good as Kemp in both categories, meaning they both should push 100/100. 从这些成绩看得出来Kemp真的很强，但Braun呢? Braun过去三年的HR数量是34,37,32。 32HR的那个球季(2009)，他的飞球率是34.1%，而他前两季的飞球率是44%左右。这表示 这家伙今年有很大的机会尻个40发。 他生涯的AVG平均是.308，其中包括一个.324和.320的球季。 去年他有114分打点,得了113分。跟Kemp比起来，他的队友小王子火力也不遑多让， 因此Kemp和Braun今年上看100/100应该都不是问题。 The only place where Kemp has the advantage is speed, though Braun is no slouch there having stolen 15, 14 and 20 bases over the past three seasons. Is he going to reach the 30+ plateau? Probably not, but he more than makes up for his “shortfall” there with the immense power he possesses. Kemp比起Braun最大的优势就是速度。Braun大概没机会单季跑上30次，但过去的三季他 也有15,14,20次，相对於他拥有的炮管，这数字还是相当不错。 Maybe it’s just me, but I just don’t see it. Braun is an absolute stud player and that’s not a knock on Kemp. While Kemp could push 30/30, Braun could go 40/20. With the ability to get speed late in your draft, I’m more than happy to take a player who helps there, but has tremendous power as opposed to the player with better speed and less power. 因此我认为Kemp跟Braun的差别就在於一个是30/30，一个是40/20的球员。而我个人认为 速度这玩意在後段选秀比较容易补到，因此我会倾向在这里选一个炮管大管、速度中上， 胜过一个附带风火轮的中上炮管。 What about you? If you had the choice which of the two players would you take and why? 这是我的个人看法?当你今年拥有这顺位你会先选谁呢? http://rotoprofessor.com/baseball/?p=5106 --

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