The Mark Reynolds problem By Andy Behrens Fri Jun 19, 2009 1:57 pm EDT And no, the problem we're referring to isn't defense and it's not specifically the Ks. Everyone understands that Mark Reynolds(notes) has certain blemishes. 不，我说的不是防守，也不是指三振数。每个人都知道Reynolds有这些缺点。 The problem -- and it's not a terrible one for fantasy owners -- is that Reynolds has significantly outperformed even the most aggressive preseason projections. (Bill James forecast a 101-32-105-10 line; Reynolds is on a 108-44-116-32 pace). He's currently the No. 13 overall player in the Yahoo! ranks, yet his average draft position was 204.7. There's a buy/sell/hold decision to make. 我要说的是，喔对FB拥有者来说当然不是坏事啦，就是Reynolds显然表现得超过预估 的水准，即使是那些最扯的预估也是一样。(Bill James预估是101R-32HR-105RBI-10SB ,而Reynolds现在正在往108R-44HR-116RBI-32SB的路上前进。)他现在在FB的排名是 overall 13位，但他的平均draft顺位是204.7。所以这时候就是考虑要买/卖/抓着的 时候了。 Reynolds is an outlier in all sorts of ways. He and Jayson Werth(notes) are the only players in the N.L. who've reached double-digits in both homers and steals. Reynolds leads the league in standard home run distance according to Hit Tracker; the typical Reynolds bomb travels 417.5 feet. His homer-per-flyball rate is 27.7 percent, the third highest in baseball. 不管我们怎麽去排序，Reynolds现在都是表现非常杰出的一位。他跟Jayson Werth是 国联现在唯二全垒打跟盗垒都达两位数的球员。Reynolds现在在全垒打平均距离+上 领先全大联盟；达到了417.5英尺。他的HR/FB%是27.7%，联盟第三高。 So he's got a little power. This is something we all knew heading into the season, of course. Reynolds belted 28 homers in 2008. He also swiped 11 bases in 13 attempts last year, so the steals aren't a complete shock, although he rarely burgled in the minors. 所以他是真的有power的。当然，这应该是我们在这一季开打前就知道的事情。Reynolds 在08球季干了28轰。他去年同样也在13次尝试盗垒中成功11次，所以他盗垒这件事并 不让人惊讶，虽然他在小联盟时几乎不盗垒的。 The number that really seems impossible is the .275 batting average. Last year, at age 24, Reynolds hit .239 while establishing a new single-season strikeout record (204). Not surprisingly he also posted the league's worst contact-rate (62.3 percent). The strikeouts are still there in '09 (95 in 244 at-bats) and the contact percentage remains low (61.6), but Reynolds' average is suddenly respectable. 真正看来比扯铃还扯的事情是他那.275的打击率。去年在他24岁的时候，Reynolds的 打击率是.239同时还创造了单季的被三振次数新记录-204次。所以不意外的是他同时 拥有全联盟最烂的contact%-62.3%。三振数到了09球季依然如昔(244AB-95K)，而且 contact%同样保持在超烂的61.6%，但是他的打击率突然拉高了这麽多。 Why? Because nearly everything the guy puts in play falls for a hit. His current BABIP is .374. That's a remarkable number when you consider the fact that Reynolds has one of the lowest line-drive rates in baseball (14.2 percent). 为啥咧？因为他打出去的球几乎都变成安打了。他现在的BABIP是.374，这是个相当 可观的数字，考虑到Reynolds拥有全大联盟前几低的LD%-14.2%。 Batter Team BABIP LD% GB% FB% Nate McLouth ATL .266 12.6% 42.1% 45.4% Howie Kendrick LAA .269 13.0% 58.2% 28.8% Jermaine Dye CWS .291 13.3% 46.7% 40.0% Jose Guillen KC .289 13.4% 45.0% 41.6% Gerald Laird DET .255 13.7% 46.0% 40.3% Jay Bruce CIN .202 14.0% 37.4% 48.6% Ian Kinsler TEX .256 14.0% 31.2% 54.8% Mark Reynolds ARZ .374 14.2% 41.9% 43.9% Alexei Ramirez CWS .268 14.4% 49.5% 36.1% Garrett Atikins COL .216 14.4% 43.7% 42.0% In the table to the left you'll find the ten players who've hit the fewest line-drives as a percentage of total balls-in-play (minimum 200 at-bats). You'll notice that a low BABIP generally accompanies a low LD-rate...with one exception. It's tough to imagine how Reynolds can possibly keep this up, though his career BABIP is actually .357. (Home runs are excluded from BABIP, by the way). 在左边(我key在上面)的表中，你可以看到这是打出去的球形成平飞球的比例前10低 的球员。你也可以发现通常低的BABIP会伴随着低的LD%出现...只有一个人例外。 很难去想像Reynolds可以继续维持这种数据，尽管他生涯的BABIP其实是.357。 (顺道一提，HR是不算在BABIP里的。) If you think Reynolds will finish the season with an average north of, say, .260, then please share your reasoning in comments. Those of us who overinvested in him back in March are worried about the possibility of total collapse. The fear is that he's Rob Deer. The hope is that he's Adam Dunn 2.0: Stronger, faster, strikeoutier. 如果你认为Reynolds会以高於，比如说，.260的AVG结束这个球季，那麽可以把你的 理由在底下的comments跟大家分享。那些三月份在Reynolds身上下大注的玩家担心 他之後全面崩盘的可能性。我说，他最糟有可能是Rob Deer(80年代一个着名的free swinger 生涯打击率.220 连续8年20+HR 生涯230HR 600RBI)，最好的话有机会变成 Adam Dunn 2.0加强版：更强壮、更快、被K得也更多。 Were he to maintain something close to his current pace, then Reynolds would be no worse than a second round pick in 2010 drafts. That's how useful he's been. He's the most valuable third baseman for fantasy purposes year-to-date, just ahead of Evan Longoria(notes) (14) and David Wright(notes) (20) in Y! rank. 假设他维持譬如现在这种产能的话，那Reynolds在明年2010年的FB选秀不会低於第二 轮。因为他就是这麽好用。从现在成绩去推估的话，他现在是整个FB里价值最高的三 垒手，刚好排在Longoria(14)和David Wright(20)的前面。 So...are you optimistic about his next 90 games? Or did the Reynolds market peak with the home run off Zack Greinke(notes) on Wednesday? It's important that we settle this today. Trade offers are pending... 所以...你现在对他接下来的90场比赛还感到乐观吗？或者觉得Reynolds在礼拜四轰了 Zack Greinke一发全垒打之後市场价值已经到了顶点？所以我们今天讲这个才这麽重 要阿。交易正在等待pending... --

※ 发信站: 批踢踢实业坊(ptt.cc) ◆ From: 140.112.217.25 ※ 编辑: jdtrue 来自: 140.112.217.25 (06/21 04:48)