作者charliee (Double E)
看板FBaseball
标题[闲聊] 两个月过去,谁该买?谁该卖?
时间Mon Jun 15 14:00:03 2009
By Adam Ronis
With two months of the fantasy baseball season complete, the trading frenzy
in leagues should pick up. Teams should now have a good idea of strengths and
weaknesses and work on improving the flaws of their team for a championship
run. Here are some players to consider acquiring or dealing.
Corey Hart (Brewers), OF: Hart has been a major disappointment. His owners
have to be on the verge of giving up on him. He has become a little more
patient with a higher walk rate, but his strikeout rate has got worse and he
still swings at too many pitches out of the strike zone. Hart has gone 20-20
in two consecutive seasons. He’s far off that pace, but he wont cost you
much right now and if you are near the bottom of the standings and need to
shake your team up, Hart is worth the gamble.
买:Corey Hart现在的玩家几乎都在耐心崩溃的边缘。但他今年其实变得比以前有耐心,
至少他的BB率变高了;但是他的三振率变得更糟,原因是他挥了太多坏球。不过Hart毕竟
是连两季20-20的球员,现在的他距离这成绩还很遥远,而且现在换他不需要花太多代价
,值得一赌。
Raul Ibanez (Phillies), OF: Ibanez has been the MVP in the National League so
far. When someone is going this well with 21 home runs, 58 RBIs and a .322
average, I know it’s very difficult to trade. Ibanez won’t have a steep
decline, but with a very high HR/FB ratio of 25.6 percent, the home runs are
likely to come down. His stock is very high and he could get you something
very good to help your team in a weak area.
卖:Raul Ibanez是国联到目前为止的MVP人选,我知道要卖掉一个这样的家伙对任何人来
说都很痛苦,不过我要提醒你的是,Raul Ibanez的成绩不会大幅下滑,但是他现在25.6
的HR/FB率实在高得离谱,这点一定会下修。更重要的是,以他现在的身价,要去补强你
的任何一个弱项绝对都可以补到非常好的人。
Michael Young (Rangers), SS/3B: Look at the disappointments at shortstop this
season. There’s Jhonny Peralta, Troy Tulowitzki, J.J. Hardy, Rafael Furcal,
Alexei Ramirez and Jimmy Rollins. A good shortstop is in high demand and
Young has eight home runs and a 13.8 HR/FB ratio, which is well above what he
has done in the past few seasons. He’s a good sell.
卖:看看这一季的SS,几乎一片哀鸿遍野。Young是现在卖相最佳的SS,而且他的HR/FB率
一样太高,现在是卖高最好的时机。
Miguel Tejada (Astros), SS: Do his owners really care how old he is right
now? While the younger shortstops went ahead of him in drafts, Tejada has
flourished with a .350 average, six home runs and 33 RBIs. Tejada has a high
BABIP of .356, so his average is likely to decline and he won’t hit for much
power with his high groundball rate. Sell.
卖:现在谁还敢笑Miguel Tejada老了?他现在的成绩是.350AVG,6HR,33RBI,是很棒,不过
他的BABIP高达.356,这不太可能维持下去;另外他的滚地球比例也太高,这对他的POWER
也不是好的sign。
Scott Baker (Twins), SP: Baker has dominated at times and also been hurt by
the long ball. Point to his 5.59 ERA and try to acquire him. He will get hurt
by home runs since he is a fly ball pitcher, but a 57/12 K/BB ratio in 67 2/3
innings says he’s in line for some good performances.
买:说过很多次不说了。
Stephen Drew (Diamondbacks), SS: Drew has been a major disappointment, even
with a 14-game hitting streak recently. Drew is hitting .250 with three home
runs and 21 RBIs. Now is the time to buy.
买:连14场安打之後,Drew的股票依然在低点,现在还是可以买进的时候。
Adrian Beltre (Mariners), 3B: Beltre is starting to hit better, but just four
home runs and 28 RBIs have some owners ready to bail. Beltre has a very how
HR/FB rate of 5.1 percent after being around 13 percent the past two seasons.
The power will come and he also has six stolen bases. Buy.
买:Beltre过去的HR/FB率都在13左右,但今年只有5.1,而且他还有6次SB,快买。
All statistics through Thursday.
--
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http://www.wretch.cc/blog/moneyball
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※ 发信站: 批踢踢实业坊(ptt.cc)
◆ From: 123.192.192.222
1F:推 kimimaru:查理好文推!!但是这样子一PO请问乡民盟 怎麽混下去@@ 06/15 14:07
2F:→ charliee:我刚也挣扎了一下 @@ 06/15 14:08
3F:推 alittlefat:信不信又是另一回事 XD 06/15 14:08
4F:推 TWIM:还是不看好Beltre...今年3B感觉没特别需要去买他进来 06/15 14:08
5F:→ charliee:对 我刚後来想 最主要是预测不一定准 所以还是PO过来 06/15 14:09
6F:推 kimimaru:Tejada肯定是假到不能在假这没问题!!有zoby吗 很好奇 06/15 14:15
7F:推 squalljack:MI有A.Hill M.Young Figgins Scutaro 可以换到几轮货啊 06/15 14:16
8F:→ kimimaru:Zoby从去年就很欣赏到今年爆发!!一路下来都有感情了= = 06/15 14:16
9F:→ kimimaru:M.Young开始冷了!!卖像开始下跌!!本来说不定可以骗到 06/15 14:17
10F:→ squalljack:这种爆发的只有自用好 想卖高都没人肯要...唉唉 06/15 14:17
11F:→ kimimaru:3,4轮对方MI很弱的话~~现在差不多就要偷笑了 06/15 14:18
12F:→ kimimaru:我都自用啊!!像卖高除非对方和我一样很有爱吧 06/15 14:20
13F:推 montrachet:Ibanez这麽不讨喜吗= =" 06/15 15:56
14F:→ montrachet:卯年都被看衰 06/15 15:56
15F:→ montrachet:每 06/15 15:56
16F:→ jayin07:比较适合自用 06/15 16:01
17F:→ jayin07:老实讲,以他那种年纪和生涯 06/15 16:01
18F:→ jayin07:被看衰也很正常,除非它是Babe Ruth 06/15 16:01
19F:→ jayin07:他「从来」都不是这种产能的打者 06/15 16:03
20F:→ jayin07:现在要把他当成第一轮卖,大部分的人都不会买单吧 06/15 16:04
21F:推 ShouNei1991:去看看他去年的成绩 09pre>08post>08pre 逐步成长 06/15 19:46
22F:→ ShouNei1991:从球队消息得知 费城人打线有他产生激励作用.. 06/15 19:47
23F:→ ShouNei1991:费城打击者惊讶於他花在健身房与打击练习所花时间~ 06/15 19:47
24F:推 montrachet:Wright and Ellsbury<->Ibanez and Chipp and R.sori? 06/16 01:10