作者AboveTheRim (尚未通过身分认证 )
看板FBaseball
标题[闲聊] Re-rank the O-Rank
时间Thu Feb 19 21:41:18 2009
之前小弟一直很好奇YAHOO预设的O-rank
不知道是依据何种ranking methodology来排的
(可能是按去年Rank 再加上FB那些专家的主观微调吧)
而YAHOO的Ranking methodolody似乎也没公布
搞得好像黑箱作业一样
所以不少新手会在中後段不知道要选谁的时候
就会直接参考O-rank
当然 老手往往就是可以从这些地方"偷"到被低估的选手
刚好本身是学统计的
运用简单的工具自创了一个rank给版众参考
顺便抛砖引玉
看能不能激发更多数量化方式的评估选手方法
http://www.badongo.com/file/13465567
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先贴top 100
(U for under-rated, O for over-rated in O-Rank)
Player Pos O-Rank R-Rank evaluation
Álex Rodríguez (NYY - 3B) 2 1
Hanley Ramírez (Fla - SS) 1 2
David Wright (NYM - 3B) 5 3
Matt Holliday (Oak - OF) 36 4
U+
Albert Pujols (StL - 1B) 3 5
Lance Berkman (Hou - 1B) 18 6
Chase Utley (Phi - 2B) 22 7
U
José Reyes (NYM - SS) 4 8
CC Sabathia (NYY - SP) 27 9
U
Carlos Beltrán (NYM - OF) 19 10
Mariano Rivera (NYY - RP) 74 11
U+
Manny Ramírez (LAD - OF) NA 29 12
U
Johan Santana (NYM - SP) 17 13
Ryan Howard (Phi - 1B) 10 14
J.Papelbon (Bos - RP) 50 15
U+
Ryan Dempster (ChC - SP) 149 16
U+
Russell Martin (LAD - C,3B) 41 17
U
Grady Sizemore (Cle - OF) 6 18
Ryan Braun (Mil - OF) 8 19
Roy Halladay (Tor - SP) 58 20
U+
Miguel Cabrera (Det - 1B,3B) 7 21 O
Chipper Jones (Atl - 3B) 65 22
U+
Tim Lincecum (SF - SP) 21 23
Jimmy Rollins (Phi - SS) 12 24
Magglio Ordóñe (Det - OF) 62 25
U+
Brandon Webb (Ari - SP) 46 26
U
Joe Nathan (Min - RP) 72 27
U+
Josh Hamilton (Tex - OF) 9 28 O
Mark Teixeira (NYY - 1B) 13 29 O
Bobby Abreu (LAA - OF) 94 30
U+
Jake Peavy (SD - SP) 48 31
U
Dustin Pedroia (Bos - 2B) 24 32
F.Rodrígu z (NYM - RP) 79 33
U+
Rich Harden (ChC - SP) 96 34
U+
Cole Hamels (Phi - SP) 45 35
Dan Haren (Ari - SP) 59 36
U
José Valverde (Hou - RP) 126 37
U+
Nick Markakis (Bal - OF) 35 38
Brian Roberts (Bal - 2B) 38 39
Joakim Soria (KC - RP) 99 40
U+
Ian Kinsler (Tex - 2B) DL 11 41 O+
Carlos Lee (Hou - OF) 26 42 O
Prince Fielder (Mil - 1B) 20 43 O
Vlad. Guerrero (LAA - OF) 32 44
Ichiro Suzuki (Sea - OF) 34 45
Cliff Lee (Cle - SP) 91 46 U+
Brandon Phillips(Cin - 2B) DL 25 47 O
Ryan Ludwick (StL - OF) 83 48 U+
Álex Ríos (Tor - OF) 43 49
Kevin Youkilis (Bos - 1B,3B) 40 50
Adrián Gonzále (SD - 1B) 49 51
C.Granderson (Det - OF) 42 52
Aramis Ramírez (ChC - 3B) 39 53 O
Jose Arredondo (LAA - RP) 305 54
U+
Brian McCann (Atl - C) 44 55
Takashi Saito (Bos - RP) 303 56
U+
Ricky Nolasco (Fla - SP) 136 57
U+
Brad Lidge (Phi - RP) 81 58
U
Nate McLouth (Pit - OF) 55 59
Alfonso Soriano (ChC - OF) 16 60 O+
Aubrey Huff (Bal - 1B,3B) 77 61
U
Justin Morneau (Min - 1B) 30 62 O+
Jason Bay (Bos - OF) 31 63 O+
Joe Mauer (Min - C) 52 64
Dan Uggla (Fla - 2B) 71 65
Josh Beckett (Bos - SP) 75 66
Kelvim Escobar (LAA - SP) DL 314 67
U+
Torii Hunter (LAA - OF) 113 68
U+
Matt Kemp (LAD - OF) 37 69 O+
Derrek Lee (ChC - 1B) 95 70
U+
J.J. Putz (NYM - RP) 318 71
U+
Joey Devine (Oak - RP) 237 72
U+
Roy Oswalt (Hou - SP) 98 73
U+
Carlos Mármol (ChC - RP) 121 74
U+
John Smoltz (Bos - SP) 231 75
U+
Kerry Wood (Cle - RP) 140 76
U+
Johnny Damon (NYY - OF) 116 77
U+
Ted Lilly (ChC - SP) 190 78
U+
James Shields (TB - SP) 97 79
U
Edinson Vólquez (Cin - SP) 117 80
U+
A.J. Burnett (NYY - SP) 105 81
U
Jermaine Dye (CWS - OF) 76 82
Geovany Soto (ChC - C) 54 83 O+
Chad Billingsley(LAD - SP) 73 84
Michael Young (Tex - SS) 80 85
Adam Dunn (Was - 1B,OF) 66 86 O
Shane Victorino (Phi - OF) 47 87 O+
Raúl Ibañez (Phi - OF) 122 88
U+
B.J. Upton (TB - OF) 14 89 O+
Jhonny Peralta (Cle - SS) 109 90
U
Daisuke Matsuzaka(Bos - SP) 114 91
U
Garrett Atkins (Col - 1B,3B) 64 92 O+
Bobby Jenks (CWS - RP) 110 93
U
Carlos Delgado (NYM - 1B) 119 94
U+
Francisco Cordero(Cin - RP) 144 95
U+
Billy Wagner (NYM - RP) 302 96
U+
Justin Duchscherer(Oak - SP) 211 97
U+
Corey Hart (Mil - OF) 56 98 O+
John Lackey (LAA - SP) 85 99 O
Derek Jeter (NYY - SS) 89 100
--
top 100中看起来比较奇怪的是57 Jose Arredondo
什麽RP咖竟然可以排上前100
查看原始数据去年竟然有10W
像这种都是中继捡到的胜投 而且取样又只有2年
就当作是统计上的误差吧 orz
--
下一步:
跑个层级贝氏来模拟预测09年成绩好了 (如果有时间整理数据的话 orz)
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※ 发信站: 批踢踢实业坊(ptt.cc)
◆ From: 114.43.198.48
1F：推 newseastar:先推一个! 以後可以出一个ptt版的FB!!!XD 02/19 21:55
2F：推 shome:少把一项算进去 球场因素, 如果要预测这点个人觉得蛮重要的 02/19 22:04
3F：推 shome:Matt Holliday去年O-Rank很高,但今年下山..O-rank变36.. 02/19 22:08
4F：推 KKyosuke:我觉得你把去年数据看的过重 02/19 22:09
5F：推 pika751106:O-rank跟年龄也有关好像 02/19 22:22
6F：推 shome:还是感谢原PO的初步分析.光整理数据就很讨厌 想到就懒惰了:P 02/19 22:24
7F：推 Ayukawayen:ORank这三年做得相当不错 所以屠杀外国人越来越难了 XD 02/19 22:27
8F：推 stk11:Cabrera的rank让我满讶异的@@ 02/19 22:30
9F：→ mapletree:我CC拿去交易到假日 照你这个看起来好像是亏@@ 02/19 22:56
10F：→ mapletree:但也没亏太大 算了~出清洋基球员让对方赚一点没差 02/19 22:57
11F：推 kevinloo:O-Rank是按照5X5 所以SU不会在O-Rank top 100 02/19 23:13
12F：推 KBchen:没有龙哥～ 02/19 23:13
13F：→ kevinloo:Escobar会不会太夸张阿 02/19 23:13
14F：→ kevinloo:NYM三个RP都出现 = = 02/19 23:14
15F：→ AboveTheRim:因为艾丝抠八前年成绩太塞雷了 去年没出赛 02/19 23:58
16F：→ AboveTheRim:所以数据是直接抓到前年 -_-" 02/19 23:58
17F：推 gamelist:Smoltz这rank... 02/20 12:37