43种温室气体2000年变化 澳洲跨国团队全揭露 建立於 2017/06/22 上稿编辑： 邹敏惠 摘译自 2017年6月13日 ENS澳洲，坎培拉报导；姜唯编译；蔡丽伶审校 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 由澳洲联邦科学工业研究组织气候科学中心（Climate Science Centre of Australia's Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation，CSIRO）和墨尔本 大学领军的国际科学团队，13日发表43种温室气体2000年来的变化。 联合国气候变迁框架公约管制的六种温室气体为人所熟知，但事实上会影响气候的温室气 体有43种。 http://imgur.com/Hz7PoTe.jpg 澳洲塔斯马尼亚州Cape Grim气象监测站。图片来源：世界气象组织 World Meteorological Organisation（CC BY-NC-ND 2.0） 报告共同作者、CSIRO首席科学家David Etheridge博士表示，这2000年来的纪录集合了全 世界十多个实验室的努力，是澳洲对全球气候变迁评估的最大贡献之一。 这篇研究「可应用於气候模型的历史温室气体浓度」（Historical greenhouse gas concentrations for climate modelling）发表於当期《地球科学模型发展》期刊。 研究指出，「当今大气温室气体（Atmospheric greenhouse gas，GHG）浓度是过去80万 年来最高，使地球暖化，暖化效应虽部分被气溶胶的冷却效果抵销，仍是过去150年来暖 化的主因。」 Etheridge博士强调，研究纳入了气溶胶、太阳热能、火山和土地利用对气候的影响，以 准确模拟出过去几个世纪的气候模型。 「我们运用当代和历史空气样本、极地冰核泡泡中的空气和陈年雪冰资料。将长期各地和 各季节的温室气体测量值投入气候模型，更准确地预测未来气候。」Etheridge说，「这 些观测资料显示，1750年起，二氧化碳、甲烷和一氧化氮等关键温室气体就几乎不断地快 速上升。」 来自CSIRO的另一位共同作者Paul Fraser博士则表示，欣慰的是蒙特娄公约管制的CFC-12 和CFC-11的确有所减少。 主要作者、墨尔本大学澳德气候能源学院Malte Meinshausen博士指出，这些新资料库将 带动相关气候模型研究，投入跨政府气候变迁小组（IPCC）2021-2022前要汇整出的下一 份评估报告。 「延续澳洲和全世界的数十年来的气候资料马拉松，这份研究将带头拼凑出气候变迁的全 貌。」Meinshausen说。 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Scientists Publish 2,000 Year Record of 43 Climate Gases CANBERRA, Australia, June 13, 2017 (ENS) Comprehensive records racking changes in all 43 greenhouse gases that contribute to human-induced climate change back 2,000 years are now available to the public as a result of research conducted by an international team of scientists. Led by researchers from the Climate Science Centre of Australia’s Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation, CSIRO, and the University of Melbourne, the scientists have published the most comprehensive and highest quality records of greenhouse gases ever compiled. People usually think of six greenhouse gases because that is the number regulated under the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change, but according to these records there are, in fact, 43 greenhouse gases that affect the climate. “This continuous record over the last 2,000 years has been meticulously constructed by combining greenhouse gas measurements from dozens of laboratories around the world,” said CSIRO principal research scientist and report co-author Dr. David Etheridge. He calls the study one of the largest-ever Australian contributions to global climate change assessments. The paper, titled “Historical greenhouse gas concentrations for climate modelling” is published in the current issue of the journal “Geoscientific Model Development”. The study states, “Atmospheric greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations are at unprecedented, record-high levels compared to the last 800,00 years. Those elevated GHG concentrations warm the planet and – partially offset by net cooling effects by aerosols – are largely responsible for the observed warming over the past 150 years.” Dr. Etheridge said that to arrive at the results, a comprehensive database of measurements was combined with information on aerosol, solar, volcanic and land-use impacts on climate to accurately simulate observed climate over past centuries in climate models. “We took data from contemporary and archived air samples, and from air trapped in ice bubbles in polar ice cores and compacted snow, also called firn,” he explained. “Providing long-term spatially and seasonally precise measurements of greenhouse gases for input into climate models will allow more robust future climate estimates,” Dr. Etheridge said. “These observations clearly show the relentless and near-continuous rise of some of the most important greenhouse gases like carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide since 1750,” Dr. Etheridge said. Report co-author Dr. Paul Fraser from CSIRO said it is encouraging to see the decline in some greenhouse gases, such as CFC-12 and CFC-11, which is measurably in response to the Montreal Protocol. Dr. Malte Meinshausen from the University of Melbourne’s Australian-German Climate and Energy College and lead author of the report said that this newly published database of continuous and high quality data will drive global climate model simulations currently being conducted by international modelling groups ahead of the next assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, IPCC, due in 2021-2022. Dr. Meinshausen said, “Following the marathon of decades of efforts in Australia and around the world to collect and process all those data, our study was taking the last step of putting it all together into one coherent picture.” ※全文及图片详见: ENS https://goo.gl/KbDgx6 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 来源网址: http://e-info.org.tw/node/205704 --

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